Auburn
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+23.8#2
Expected Predictive Rating+29.5#1
Pace71.4#109
Improvement-0.6#216

Offense
Total Offense+16.2#1
First Shot+13.1#1
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#23
Layup/Dunks+6.5#13
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#107
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#50
Freethrows+0.6#137
Improvement-1.0#239

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#21
First Shot+6.0#30
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#61
Layups/Dunks+2.0#96
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#293
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#17
Freethrows+0.2#166
Improvement+0.4#158
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 39.9% 41.0% 28.1%
#1 Seed 82.8% 83.8% 72.1%
Top 2 Seed 98.3% 98.6% 95.2%
Top 4 Seed 99.9% 100.0% 99.4%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.2 1.2 1.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 98.7%
Conference Champion 65.3% 67.2% 45.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round99.4% 99.5% 99.0%
Sweet Sixteen84.0% 84.4% 79.3%
Elite Eight64.3% 65.0% 56.5%
Final Four44.8% 45.5% 36.6%
Championship Game29.2% 29.8% 23.0%
National Champion18.2% 18.7% 13.5%

Next Game: South Carolina (Away) - 91.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a12 - 412 - 4
Quad 1b7 - 119 - 5
Quad 24 - 022 - 5
Quad 31 - 024 - 5
Quad 45 - 029 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 202   Vermont W 94-43 99%     1 - 0 +46.0 +23.2 +23.1
  Nov 09, 2024 3   Houston W 74-69 60%     2 - 0 +26.2 +22.8 +4.0
  Nov 13, 2024 130   Kent St. W 79-56 98%     3 - 0 +22.2 +18.3 +6.4
  Nov 18, 2024 176   North Alabama W 102-69 99%     4 - 0 +29.2 +20.6 +6.8
  Nov 25, 2024 4   Iowa St. W 83-81 61%     5 - 0 +22.9 +18.7 +4.2
  Nov 26, 2024 26   North Carolina W 85-72 82%     6 - 0 +27.1 +13.6 +12.8
  Nov 27, 2024 30   Memphis W 90-76 84%     7 - 0 +27.0 +27.1 +0.5
  Dec 04, 2024 1   @ Duke L 78-84 37%     7 - 1 +21.3 +28.4 -7.8
  Dec 08, 2024 211   Richmond W 98-54 99%     8 - 1 +38.6 +18.1 +18.4
  Dec 14, 2024 31   Ohio St. W 91-53 85%     9 - 1 +50.9 +30.7 +22.9
  Dec 17, 2024 276   Georgia St. W 100-59 99%     10 - 1 +31.6 +17.4 +11.8
  Dec 21, 2024 19   Purdue W 87-69 77%     11 - 1 +33.9 +22.9 +11.6
  Dec 30, 2024 273   Monmouth W 87-58 99%     12 - 1 +19.9 +11.6 +8.8
  Jan 04, 2025 45   Missouri W 84-68 92%     13 - 1 1 - 0 +24.3 +12.9 +11.3
  Jan 07, 2025 37   @ Texas W 87-82 79%     14 - 1 2 - 0 +20.2 +19.9 +0.3
  Jan 11, 2025 83   @ South Carolina W 82-68 91%    
  Jan 14, 2025 16   Mississippi St. W 84-73 84%    
  Jan 18, 2025 38   @ Georgia W 81-72 79%    
  Jan 25, 2025 8   Tennessee W 77-69 77%    
  Jan 29, 2025 64   @ LSU W 86-74 87%    
  Feb 01, 2025 25   @ Mississippi W 81-74 73%    
  Feb 04, 2025 43   Oklahoma W 88-73 92%    
  Feb 08, 2025 5   Florida W 87-81 72%    
  Feb 11, 2025 49   @ Vanderbilt W 88-78 82%    
  Feb 15, 2025 7   @ Alabama W 89-88 53%    
  Feb 19, 2025 35   Arkansas W 87-73 91%    
  Feb 22, 2025 38   Georgia W 84-69 91%    
  Feb 26, 2025 25   Mississippi W 84-71 88%    
  Mar 01, 2025 18   @ Kentucky W 90-85 67%    
  Mar 04, 2025 20   @ Texas A&M W 78-73 68%    
  Mar 08, 2025 7   Alabama W 92-85 75%    
Projected Record 27 - 4 15 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.8 9.0 18.2 19.3 12.4 4.5 65.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 5.2 7.4 3.4 0.5 17.6 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.6 3.7 1.4 0.1 8.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.4 0.9 0.1 4.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.6 0.1 2.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.3 6th
7th 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.1 7.0 11.7 17.8 21.7 19.7 12.4 4.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.5    4.5
17-1 100.0% 12.4    12.2 0.1
16-2 97.6% 19.3    17.3 2.0
15-3 84.2% 18.2    12.0 5.5 0.7 0.0
14-4 50.4% 9.0    3.2 4.2 1.2 0.3 0.0
13-5 15.7% 1.8    0.2 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1
12-6 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 65.3% 65.3 49.5 12.5 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.5% 100.0% 59.3% 40.7% 1.1 4.3 0.3 100.0%
17-1 12.4% 100.0% 53.0% 47.0% 1.0 11.8 0.5 100.0%
16-2 19.7% 100.0% 43.6% 56.4% 1.1 18.3 1.4 100.0%
15-3 21.7% 100.0% 39.6% 60.4% 1.1 19.5 2.2 100.0%
14-4 17.8% 100.0% 34.0% 66.0% 1.2 14.9 2.9 0.1 100.0%
13-5 11.7% 100.0% 30.4% 69.6% 1.3 8.7 3.0 0.1 100.0%
12-6 7.0% 100.0% 21.8% 78.2% 1.5 4.0 2.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-7 3.1% 100.0% 15.1% 84.9% 1.7 1.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
10-8 1.3% 100.0% 11.5% 88.5% 2.2 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 100.0%
9-9 0.5% 100.0% 6.7% 93.3% 2.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
8-10 0.1% 100.0% 1.4% 98.6% 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
7-11 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 38.2% 61.8% 1.2 82.8 15.5 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.7% 100.0% 1.0 95.7 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 100.0% 1.0 98.5 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 100.0% 1.1 90.4 9.6