Purdue
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.0#19
Expected Predictive Rating+16.7#13
Pace67.2#247
Improvement-0.3#217

Offense
Total Offense+9.6#10
First Shot+7.9#21
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#93
Layup/Dunks-0.2#192
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#45
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#72
Freethrows+1.6#101
Improvement-0.8#307

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#59
First Shot+3.4#82
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#117
Layups/Dunks-2.7#263
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#128
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#177
Freethrows+5.1#8
Improvement+0.5#112
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.2% 1.2% 0.1%
#1 Seed 5.8% 5.9% 1.8%
Top 2 Seed 15.0% 15.5% 4.3%
Top 4 Seed 38.6% 39.4% 19.5%
Top 6 Seed 59.2% 60.1% 36.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 83.0% 83.8% 64.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 81.1% 81.9% 62.5%
Average Seed 5.2 5.1 6.4
.500 or above 88.2% 89.0% 69.0%
.500 or above in Conference 77.1% 77.8% 61.7%
Conference Champion 13.6% 13.9% 6.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 1.1% 2.9%
First Four4.7% 4.6% 7.8%
First Round80.8% 81.6% 60.8%
Second Round60.2% 61.1% 38.6%
Sweet Sixteen31.7% 32.3% 17.0%
Elite Eight14.1% 14.4% 6.6%
Final Four6.2% 6.3% 2.6%
Championship Game2.5% 2.6% 0.8%
National Champion1.0% 1.0% 0.4%

Next Game: Marshall (Home) - 96.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 38 - 9
Quad 26 - 214 - 11
Quad 34 - 017 - 12
Quad 43 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 212   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 90-73 95%     1 - 0 +11.5 +10.6 +0.2
  Nov 08, 2024 201   Northern Kentucky W 72-50 95%     2 - 0 +17.0 +8.8 +11.0
  Nov 11, 2024 108   Yale W 92-84 88%     3 - 0 +9.1 +15.2 -6.4
  Nov 15, 2024 9   Alabama W 87-78 50%     4 - 0 +23.1 +21.5 +1.9
  Nov 19, 2024 15   @ Marquette L 58-76 36%     4 - 1 -0.3 -3.8 +3.0
  Nov 23, 2024 195   Marshall W 86-67 96%    
  Nov 28, 2024 52   North Carolina St. W 77-72 67%    
  Dec 05, 2024 32   @ Penn St. L 78-80 44%    
  Dec 08, 2024 30   Maryland W 74-70 65%    
  Dec 14, 2024 23   Texas A&M W 73-72 52%    
  Dec 21, 2024 3   Auburn L 74-80 31%    
  Dec 29, 2024 138   Toledo W 86-70 92%    
  Jan 02, 2025 90   @ Minnesota W 70-65 69%    
  Jan 05, 2025 74   Northwestern W 74-65 80%    
  Jan 09, 2025 42   @ Rutgers L 72-73 50%    
  Jan 12, 2025 65   Nebraska W 78-69 78%    
  Jan 15, 2025 84   @ Washington W 77-73 64%    
  Jan 18, 2025 40   @ Oregon L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 21, 2025 20   Ohio St. W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 24, 2025 24   Michigan W 76-73 62%    
  Jan 31, 2025 22   Indiana W 77-74 61%    
  Feb 04, 2025 41   @ Iowa L 79-80 49%    
  Feb 07, 2025 78   USC W 80-70 80%    
  Feb 11, 2025 24   @ Michigan L 73-76 41%    
  Feb 15, 2025 38   Wisconsin W 78-72 69%    
  Feb 18, 2025 35   @ Michigan St. L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 23, 2025 22   @ Indiana L 74-77 41%    
  Feb 28, 2025 28   UCLA W 70-66 63%    
  Mar 04, 2025 42   Rutgers W 75-69 69%    
  Mar 07, 2025 26   @ Illinois L 76-78 42%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.9 3.8 3.2 1.9 0.6 0.2 13.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.6 3.8 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 10.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 9.5 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 4.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.9 2.5 0.3 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.3 2.8 3.5 0.7 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 3.9 1.6 0.1 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.7 2.7 0.4 0.0 6.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 3.3 1.0 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.4 2.0 0.1 0.0 4.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 2.7 0.6 0.0 4.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.3 0.1 3.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.7 0.0 2.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.8 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 4.0 5.8 8.1 10.1 11.7 12.2 11.7 10.7 8.4 5.9 3.7 1.9 0.6 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 99.6% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 97.0% 1.9    1.7 0.1 0.0
17-3 86.7% 3.2    2.5 0.7 0.1
16-4 64.1% 3.8    2.0 1.4 0.3 0.0
15-5 33.9% 2.9    0.9 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.8% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.6% 13.6 8.0 3.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 45.6% 54.4% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 42.7% 57.3% 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.9% 100.0% 41.2% 58.8% 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.7% 100.0% 31.1% 68.9% 1.8 1.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.9% 100.0% 25.9% 74.1% 2.3 1.3 2.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 8.4% 100.0% 19.9% 80.1% 2.9 0.8 2.3 3.0 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.7% 100.0% 16.7% 83.2% 3.7 0.3 1.4 3.4 3.2 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 11.7% 100.0% 10.5% 89.5% 4.6 0.1 0.5 2.2 3.1 3.0 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 12.2% 99.6% 6.8% 92.8% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 3.1 2.9 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
11-9 11.7% 97.7% 4.4% 93.3% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 2.5 2.3 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.3 97.6%
10-10 10.1% 90.3% 2.8% 87.5% 8.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 1.0 90.0%
9-11 8.1% 64.9% 1.4% 63.5% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.7 0.3 2.9 64.4%
8-12 5.8% 27.5% 0.4% 27.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 4.2 27.1%
7-13 4.0% 6.7% 0.4% 6.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.7 6.4%
6-14 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.5%
5-15 1.4% 1.4
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 83.0% 10.3% 72.7% 5.2 5.8 9.3 12.0 11.5 11.2 9.5 6.6 4.8 3.9 3.4 4.2 0.9 0.0 17.0 81.1%