Purdue
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.5#16
Expected Predictive Rating+16.6#18
Pace64.8#270
Improvement+2.1#99

Offense
Total Offense+11.7#9
First Shot+9.9#7
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#82
Layup/Dunks+0.5#164
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#85
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#35
Freethrows+2.6#47
Improvement+1.2#121

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#44
First Shot+5.3#41
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#135
Layups/Dunks+3.4#61
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#258
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#219
Freethrows+3.1#16
Improvement+1.0#137
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.9% 2.9% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 11.1% 15.4% 3.4%
Top 4 Seed 58.8% 68.9% 40.9%
Top 6 Seed 93.1% 96.7% 86.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Average Seed 4.2 3.9 4.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 3.8% 5.9% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Second Round87.3% 89.9% 82.7%
Sweet Sixteen50.4% 53.5% 44.9%
Elite Eight22.4% 24.7% 18.4%
Final Four9.8% 10.8% 7.9%
Championship Game4.2% 4.7% 3.4%
National Champion1.6% 1.6% 1.5%

Next Game: Indiana (Away) - 64.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b5 - 39 - 9
Quad 28 - 117 - 10
Quad 33 - 019 - 10
Quad 44 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 199   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 90-73 97%     1 - 0 +12.3 +11.9 -0.3
  Nov 08, 2024 241   Northern Kentucky W 72-50 98%     2 - 0 +15.0 +6.0 +11.8
  Nov 11, 2024 70   Yale W 92-84 87%     3 - 0 +13.5 +16.4 -3.2
  Nov 15, 2024 6   Alabama W 87-78 52%     4 - 0 +25.9 +21.8 +4.5
  Nov 19, 2024 29   @ Marquette L 58-76 51%     4 - 1 -0.7 -4.2 +2.9
  Nov 23, 2024 190   Marshall W 80-45 97%     5 - 1 +30.8 +8.9 +23.5
  Nov 28, 2024 103   North Carolina St. W 71-61 89%     6 - 1 +14.3 +13.9 +2.2
  Nov 29, 2024 25   Mississippi W 80-78 60%     7 - 1 +16.9 +24.4 -7.3
  Dec 05, 2024 62   @ Penn St. L 70-81 73%     7 - 2 0 - 1 +0.1 +0.2 +0.2
  Dec 08, 2024 13   Maryland W 83-78 58%     8 - 2 1 - 1 +20.4 +17.9 +2.5
  Dec 14, 2024 20   Texas A&M L 66-70 56%     8 - 3 +12.0 +7.8 +4.0
  Dec 21, 2024 1   Auburn L 69-87 28%     8 - 4 +5.6 +8.1 -3.1
  Dec 29, 2024 221   Toledo W 83-64 97%     9 - 4 +13.2 +6.5 +7.4
  Jan 02, 2025 76   @ Minnesota W 81-61 76%     10 - 4 2 - 1 +29.9 +29.0 +4.9
  Jan 05, 2025 58   Northwestern W 79-61 82%     11 - 4 3 - 1 +25.7 +15.4 +11.6
  Jan 09, 2025 63   @ Rutgers W 68-50 74%     12 - 4 4 - 1 +28.9 +6.8 +24.0
  Jan 12, 2025 48   Nebraska W 104-68 80%     13 - 4 5 - 1 +44.5 +34.7 +9.5
  Jan 15, 2025 90   @ Washington W 69-58 81%     14 - 4 6 - 1 +19.3 +6.5 +13.7
  Jan 18, 2025 39   @ Oregon W 65-58 61%     15 - 4 7 - 1 +21.7 -1.1 +22.8
  Jan 21, 2025 33   Ohio St. L 70-73 73%     15 - 5 7 - 2 +8.1 +8.2 -0.3
  Jan 24, 2025 22   Michigan W 91-64 66%     16 - 5 8 - 2 +40.1 +22.5 +17.0
  Jan 31, 2025 57   Indiana W 81-76 81%     17 - 5 9 - 2 +13.0 +14.2 -1.0
  Feb 04, 2025 61   @ Iowa W 90-81 71%     18 - 5 10 - 2 +20.8 +20.1 +0.8
  Feb 07, 2025 59   USC W 90-72 82%     19 - 5 11 - 2 +25.6 +16.0 +8.8
  Feb 11, 2025 22   @ Michigan L 73-75 47%     19 - 6 11 - 3 +16.2 +10.5 +5.7
  Feb 15, 2025 7   Wisconsin L 84-94 55%     19 - 7 11 - 4 +6.2 +22.4 -16.9
  Feb 18, 2025 12   @ Michigan St. L 66-75 37%     19 - 8 11 - 5 +11.8 +15.1 -4.8
  Feb 23, 2025 57   @ Indiana W 76-72 64%    
  Feb 28, 2025 27   UCLA W 72-67 70%    
  Mar 04, 2025 63   Rutgers W 81-69 88%    
  Mar 07, 2025 18   @ Illinois L 79-80 45%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.7 3.8 1st
2nd 0.1 4.9 11.6 16.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 18.9 3.3 24.0 3rd
4th 0.4 13.1 15.2 0.2 28.9 4th
5th 0.0 3.7 13.6 1.4 18.6 5th
6th 0.5 5.3 2.1 7.8 6th
7th 0.3 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.8 9.4 30.6 40.4 18.9 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 19.8% 3.7    0.0 0.6 1.5 1.4 0.2
14-6 0.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 3.8% 3.8 0.0 0.6 1.5 1.4 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 18.9% 100.0% 22.0% 78.0% 2.8 1.6 5.5 7.1 3.9 0.6 0.1 100.0%
14-6 40.4% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 3.9 0.3 3.2 11.0 13.7 8.9 3.1 0.3 100.0%
13-7 30.6% 100.0% 10.4% 89.6% 4.9 0.0 0.5 3.6 7.3 9.9 6.8 2.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 9.4% 99.9% 8.2% 91.7% 6.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 2.9 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-9 0.8% 98.8% 3.8% 95.0% 7.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.7%
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 15.0% 85.0% 4.2 1.9 9.2 22.0 25.7 21.3 13.0 5.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.1% 100.0% 1.8 28.7 58.2 12.8 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.3% 100.0% 2.7 6.3 30.8 51.4 10.9 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.5% 100.0% 3.0 2.4 24.2 47.1 23.8 2.4 0.2
Lose Out 0.3% 96.3% 8.1 14.8 59.3 18.5 3.7