Marquette
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.7#29
Expected Predictive Rating+16.3#20
Pace69.1#152
Improvement-7.1#359

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#31
First Shot+6.5#38
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#131
Layup/Dunks+7.1#8
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#355
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#59
Freethrows-0.8#232
Improvement-3.2#320

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#25
First Shot+8.2#10
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#247
Layups/Dunks+1.9#100
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#197
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#72
Freethrows+3.6#8
Improvement-3.8#339
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 8.2% 9.4% 2.2%
Top 6 Seed 46.9% 49.9% 30.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.4% 99.6% 98.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.3% 99.5% 98.5%
Average Seed 6.6 6.4 7.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round99.4% 99.6% 98.6%
Second Round64.3% 65.8% 56.6%
Sweet Sixteen24.0% 25.4% 16.5%
Elite Eight8.6% 9.2% 5.6%
Final Four2.9% 3.1% 1.6%
Championship Game0.9% 1.0% 0.5%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.1%

Next Game: Providence (Home) - 84.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 7
Quad 27 - 214 - 9
Quad 35 - 019 - 9
Quad 45 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 320   Stony Brook W 102-62 98%     1 - 0 +28.1 +21.8 +6.5
  Nov 08, 2024 75   George Mason W 82-63 82%     2 - 0 +24.1 +12.8 +10.5
  Nov 11, 2024 215   Central Michigan W 70-62 96%     3 - 0 +2.7 -9.5 +11.8
  Nov 15, 2024 13   @ Maryland W 78-74 29%     4 - 0 +24.5 +18.0 +6.6
  Nov 19, 2024 16   Purdue W 76-58 49%     5 - 0 +32.9 +10.1 +23.4
  Nov 23, 2024 44   Georgia W 80-69 62%     6 - 0 +22.6 +14.1 +8.5
  Nov 27, 2024 324   Stonehill W 94-59 99%     7 - 0 +22.7 +16.6 +7.1
  Nov 30, 2024 333   Western Carolina W 94-62 99%     8 - 0 +18.7 +3.6 +11.0
  Dec 04, 2024 9   @ Iowa St. L 70-81 27%     8 - 1 +10.2 +8.7 +1.5
  Dec 07, 2024 7   Wisconsin W 88-74 44%     9 - 1 +30.2 +25.9 +5.2
  Dec 14, 2024 83   @ Dayton L 63-71 70%     9 - 2 +1.3 +0.5 -0.2
  Dec 18, 2024 66   Butler W 80-70 80%     10 - 2 1 - 0 +15.8 +16.3 +0.6
  Dec 21, 2024 42   @ Xavier W 72-70 51%     11 - 2 2 - 0 +16.5 +7.4 +9.1
  Dec 31, 2024 79   @ Providence W 78-50 68%     12 - 2 3 - 0 +37.8 +18.0 +23.2
  Jan 03, 2025 31   Creighton W 79-71 61%     13 - 2 4 - 0 +19.9 +10.9 +8.9
  Jan 07, 2025 73   Georgetown W 74-66 82%     14 - 2 5 - 0 +13.2 +5.0 +8.1
  Jan 14, 2025 120   @ DePaul W 85-83 OT 82%     15 - 2 6 - 0 +7.1 +9.2 -2.2
  Jan 18, 2025 42   Xavier L 57-59 70%     15 - 3 6 - 1 +7.4 -8.2 +15.6
  Jan 21, 2025 167   @ Seton Hall W 76-59 88%     16 - 3 7 - 1 +19.2 +9.4 +10.3
  Jan 24, 2025 43   Villanova W 87-74 70%     17 - 3 8 - 1 +22.2 +16.1 +6.2
  Jan 28, 2025 66   @ Butler W 78-69 65%     18 - 3 9 - 1 +19.9 +13.4 +7.1
  Feb 01, 2025 32   Connecticut L 69-77 62%     18 - 4 9 - 2 +3.6 +3.8 -0.7
  Feb 04, 2025 14   @ St. John's L 64-70 29%     18 - 5 9 - 3 +14.4 +7.9 +6.3
  Feb 08, 2025 31   @ Creighton L 67-77 41%     18 - 6 9 - 4 +7.0 +13.8 -8.4
  Feb 11, 2025 120   DePaul W 68-58 91%     19 - 6 10 - 4 +10.0 -6.3 +16.1
  Feb 18, 2025 167   Seton Hall W 80-56 94%     20 - 6 11 - 4 +21.1 +16.4 +6.9
  Feb 21, 2025 43   @ Villanova L 66-81 52%     20 - 7 11 - 5 -0.7 +9.0 -12.2
  Feb 25, 2025 79   Providence W 78-68 84%    
  Mar 01, 2025 73   @ Georgetown W 73-69 65%    
  Mar 05, 2025 32   @ Connecticut L 71-73 42%    
  Mar 08, 2025 14   St. John's L 70-71 50%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 9.8 8.2 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 17.3 25.0 2.7 46.4 3rd
4th 0.7 11.7 16.2 1.5 30.1 4th
5th 1.0 2.2 3.2 5th
6th 0.4 0.4 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 2.1 15.3 34.6 36.3 11.7 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 6.8% 0.8    0.4 0.4
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 11.7% 100.0% 23.7% 76.3% 4.7 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.5 3.8 2.7 0.5 0.0 100.0%
14-6 36.3% 99.9% 18.3% 81.7% 6.0 0.0 0.5 2.6 7.9 12.2 9.9 2.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 34.6% 99.5% 13.8% 85.6% 7.0 0.1 0.4 2.6 7.7 12.1 8.4 2.9 0.3 0.2 99.4%
12-8 15.3% 98.4% 10.5% 87.9% 7.9 0.4 1.3 3.4 5.6 3.6 0.8 0.1 0.3 98.2%
11-9 2.1% 95.1% 11.7% 83.5% 8.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.1 94.5%
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.4% 16.0% 83.4% 6.6 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.5 14.7 23.9 26.1 17.2 7.6 1.6 0.1 0.6 99.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.8% 100.0% 3.4 1.1 13.0 45.3 31.5 7.6 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.5% 100.0% 4.7 1.2 10.6 29.3 39.8 18.7 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.5% 100.0% 5.2 4.5 16.2 43.5 29.5 5.7 0.6
Lose Out 0.5% 89.1% 9.7 39.1 39.1 10.9