Western Carolina
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.8#333
Expected Predictive Rating-11.0#330
Pace73.8#51
Improvement+4.0#38

Offense
Total Offense-6.4#332
First Shot-5.8#329
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#222
Layup/Dunks-2.4#272
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#295
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#106
Freethrows-3.5#354
Improvement+5.6#9

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#304
First Shot-7.1#353
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#11
Layups/Dunks-1.0#216
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#291
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#323
Freethrows-0.9#258
Improvement-1.6#277
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Samford (Away) - 5.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 7
Quad 31 - 91 - 16
Quad 45 - 56 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 231   @ Queens L 54-67 19%     0 - 1 -14.3 -26.8 +13.8
  Nov 19, 2024 55   @ Wake Forest L 69-82 2%     0 - 2 +0.1 +5.6 -5.5
  Nov 26, 2024 82   @ Florida St. L 57-91 4%     0 - 3 -24.6 -13.5 -8.2
  Nov 30, 2024 29   @ Marquette L 62-94 1%     0 - 4 -14.7 -9.9 -0.7
  Dec 04, 2024 340   Bellarmine W 86-74 63%     1 - 4 -2.2 +1.0 -3.3
  Dec 07, 2024 345   South Carolina Upstate L 68-74 66%     1 - 5 -20.9 -15.6 -5.1
  Dec 14, 2024 184   @ UNC Asheville L 61-78 13%     1 - 6 -15.7 -15.1 -0.2
  Dec 17, 2024 5   @ Tennessee L 36-84 1%     1 - 7 -25.5 -24.4 +1.0
  Jan 01, 2025 159   Furman L 61-90 21%     1 - 8 0 - 1 -31.4 -13.6 -17.9
  Jan 04, 2025 113   Samford L 69-88 15%     1 - 9 0 - 2 -18.6 -7.4 -10.3
  Jan 08, 2025 142   @ Wofford L 69-77 10%     1 - 10 0 - 3 -4.4 -1.7 -3.0
  Jan 12, 2025 256   Mercer W 85-82 39%     2 - 10 1 - 3 -4.8 +3.0 -8.1
  Jan 15, 2025 309   @ VMI L 50-66 32%     2 - 11 1 - 4 -22.0 -22.3 -0.3
  Jan 18, 2025 154   UNC Greensboro L 55-83 20%     2 - 12 1 - 5 -30.0 -14.4 -17.5
  Jan 22, 2025 148   @ East Tennessee St. L 58-85 10%     2 - 13 1 - 6 -23.7 -8.1 -17.8
  Jan 25, 2025 358   @ The Citadel W 80-78 OT 54%     3 - 13 2 - 6 -9.8 -1.0 -8.9
  Jan 29, 2025 119   Chattanooga L 60-84 15%     3 - 14 2 - 7 -23.8 -23.5 +2.4
  Feb 01, 2025 309   VMI L 76-80 OT 51%     3 - 15 2 - 8 -15.0 -6.2 -8.5
  Feb 05, 2025 159   @ Furman L 75-84 OT 11%     3 - 16 2 - 9 -6.3 -0.8 -5.1
  Feb 08, 2025 154   @ UNC Greensboro L 70-74 10%     3 - 17 2 - 10 -0.9 +2.8 -3.9
  Feb 12, 2025 148   East Tennessee St. W 76-67 20%     4 - 17 3 - 10 +7.2 +5.1 +2.4
  Feb 15, 2025 358   The Citadel W 76-73 72%     5 - 17 4 - 10 -13.9 -2.4 -11.4
  Feb 19, 2025 119   @ Chattanooga L 86-91 8%     5 - 18 4 - 11 +0.3 +12.2 -11.9
  Feb 22, 2025 113   @ Samford L 70-86 5%    
  Feb 26, 2025 142   Wofford L 68-77 20%    
  Mar 01, 2025 256   @ Mercer L 73-81 21%    
Projected Record 5 - 21 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 8.2 5.4 0.2 13.8 8th
9th 60.2 25.1 0.8 86.1 9th
10th 10th
Total 60.2 33.3 6.2 0.3 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 0.3% 0.3
6-12 6.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.2
5-13 33.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 33.2
4-14 60.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 60.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 43.9%