Western Carolina
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.6#342
Expected Predictive Rating-13.7#342
Pace74.5#46
Improvement-0.6#210

Offense
Total Offense-8.4#353
First Shot-7.4#349
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#249
Layup/Dunks-3.0#292
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#295
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#129
Freethrows-3.7#356
Improvement+1.3#101

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#268
First Shot-5.9#345
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#11
Layups/Dunks-0.7#197
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#280
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#315
Freethrows-0.7#238
Improvement-1.9#287
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.2% 1.5% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 32.9% 14.3% 34.3%
First Four0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Away) - 7.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 31 - 101 - 17
Quad 44 - 55 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 210   @ Queens L 54-67 14%     0 - 1 -12.7 -25.4 +14.1
  Nov 19, 2024 59   @ Wake Forest L 69-82 2%     0 - 2 -0.9 +4.5 -5.5
  Nov 26, 2024 58   @ Florida St. L 57-91 2%     0 - 3 -21.7 -13.8 -5.1
  Nov 30, 2024 20   @ Marquette L 62-94 1%     0 - 4 -13.7 -9.4 -0.2
  Dec 04, 2024 353   Bellarmine W 86-74 67%     1 - 4 -4.2 +0.8 -5.2
  Dec 07, 2024 338   South Carolina Upstate L 68-74 60%     1 - 5 -20.2 -14.0 -6.0
  Dec 14, 2024 187   @ UNC Asheville L 61-78 11%     1 - 6 -15.4 -17.3 +2.3
  Dec 17, 2024 8   @ Tennessee L 36-84 1%     1 - 7 -26.5 -26.3 +1.9
  Jan 01, 2025 151   Furman L 61-90 18%     1 - 8 0 - 1 -30.8 -12.7 -18.2
  Jan 04, 2025 115   Samford L 69-88 14%     1 - 9 0 - 2 -18.8 -9.3 -8.6
  Jan 08, 2025 130   @ Wofford L 69-77 7%     1 - 10 0 - 3 -3.3 -1.9 -1.7
  Jan 12, 2025 233   Mercer W 85-82 32%     2 - 10 1 - 3 -3.8 +3.6 -7.6
  Jan 15, 2025 327   @ VMI L 50-66 35%     2 - 11 1 - 4 -23.6 -24.4 +0.1
  Jan 18, 2025 129   UNC Greensboro L 55-83 15%     2 - 12 1 - 5 -28.7 -14.8 -15.8
  Jan 22, 2025 146   @ East Tennessee St. L 64-79 7%    
  Jan 25, 2025 352   @ The Citadel L 68-69 43%    
  Jan 29, 2025 156   Chattanooga L 71-80 19%    
  Feb 01, 2025 327   VMI W 73-71 57%    
  Feb 05, 2025 151   @ Furman L 63-78 7%    
  Feb 08, 2025 129   @ UNC Greensboro L 61-77 6%    
  Feb 12, 2025 146   East Tennessee St. L 67-77 18%    
  Feb 15, 2025 352   The Citadel W 70-66 66%    
  Feb 19, 2025 156   @ Chattanooga L 68-83 8%    
  Feb 22, 2025 115   @ Samford L 70-87 5%    
  Feb 26, 2025 130   Wofford L 66-77 16%    
  Mar 01, 2025 233   @ Mercer L 70-80 16%    
Projected Record 5 - 21 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 6th
7th 0.2 1.4 2.3 1.6 0.4 0.1 5.9 7th
8th 3.5 11.6 11.1 4.8 1.0 0.1 32.1 8th
9th 6.5 19.4 12.7 3.3 0.4 42.3 9th
10th 4.7 9.9 3.9 0.4 0.0 18.9 10th
Total 4.7 16.4 26.8 24.9 15.8 7.5 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8
9-9 0.2% 0.2
8-10 0.8% 0.8
7-11 2.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.8
6-12 7.5% 7.5
5-13 15.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.8
4-14 24.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 24.9
3-15 26.8% 26.8
2-16 16.4% 16.4
1-17 4.7% 4.7
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.0%