Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.5#58
Expected Predictive Rating+9.7#56
Pace75.2#37
Improvement+1.5#117

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#71
First Shot+3.5#80
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#140
Layup/Dunks+4.2#48
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#161
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#318
Freethrows+3.6#20
Improvement+2.0#77

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#51
First Shot+5.0#45
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#142
Layups/Dunks+4.4#46
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#93
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#175
Freethrows-0.9#256
Improvement-0.4#205
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.9% 15.8% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.7% 14.5% 6.8%
Average Seed 10.3 10.2 10.5
.500 or above 99.5% 100.0% 98.6%
.500 or above in Conference 79.9% 87.6% 66.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four7.0% 8.5% 4.5%
First Round9.4% 11.5% 5.7%
Second Round3.7% 4.6% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.9% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California (Away) - 63.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 7
Quad 24 - 45 - 11
Quad 38 - 113 - 12
Quad 48 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 234   Northern Kentucky W 74-62 93%     1 - 0 +5.1 -6.1 +10.1
  Nov 09, 2024 192   Rice W 73-65 85%     2 - 0 +6.7 -2.0 +8.5
  Nov 12, 2024 260   Tarleton St. W 72-52 94%     3 - 0 +11.6 -4.3 +15.2
  Nov 15, 2024 5   Florida L 74-87 22%     3 - 1 +4.7 +3.8 +1.7
  Nov 19, 2024 175   Hofstra W 79-61 88%     4 - 1 +14.6 +10.8 +4.1
  Nov 22, 2024 110   Temple W 78-69 73%     5 - 1 +12.2 +1.9 +9.8
  Nov 24, 2024 170   Massachusetts W 92-59 83%     6 - 1 +32.5 +16.4 +15.0
  Nov 26, 2024 341   Western Carolina W 91-57 98%     7 - 1 +19.7 +6.2 +10.7
  Dec 03, 2024 64   @ LSU L 75-85 43%     7 - 2 +1.3 +5.4 -3.7
  Dec 07, 2024 93   @ North Carolina St. L 74-84 OT 53%     7 - 3 0 - 1 -1.2 +5.5 -6.8
  Dec 14, 2024 148   Tulane W 77-64 79%     8 - 3 +14.1 +5.3 +9.0
  Dec 17, 2024 198   Winthrop W 82-64 90%     9 - 3 +13.6 -1.6 +13.6
  Dec 21, 2024 27   Louisville L 76-90 44%     9 - 4 0 - 2 -3.0 +10.1 -13.5
  Jan 04, 2025 103   Syracuse W 90-74 78%     10 - 4 1 - 2 +17.2 +16.8 +0.2
  Jan 08, 2025 155   @ Miami (FL) W 80-65 73%     11 - 4 2 - 2 +18.3 +0.2 +17.5
  Jan 11, 2025 30   @ Clemson L 57-77 27%     11 - 5 2 - 3 -4.1 -1.4 -5.1
  Jan 15, 2025 40   Pittsburgh W 82-70 52%     12 - 5 3 - 3 +21.1 +3.5 +16.3
  Jan 18, 2025 104   Georgia Tech W 91-78 79%     13 - 5 4 - 3 +14.1 +16.9 -3.1
  Jan 22, 2025 118   @ California W 80-76 64%    
  Jan 25, 2025 88   @ Stanford W 77-76 51%    
  Jan 29, 2025 137   Virginia Tech W 79-68 85%    
  Feb 01, 2025 193   @ Boston College W 79-71 77%    
  Feb 04, 2025 77   Notre Dame W 76-71 70%    
  Feb 12, 2025 59   @ Wake Forest L 71-74 39%    
  Feb 15, 2025 30   Clemson L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 19, 2025 155   Miami (FL) W 86-74 86%    
  Feb 22, 2025 27   @ Louisville L 74-81 25%    
  Feb 24, 2025 26   North Carolina L 79-81 45%    
  Mar 01, 2025 1   @ Duke L 65-82 5%    
  Mar 04, 2025 107   @ Virginia W 66-63 61%    
  Mar 07, 2025 37   SMU L 80-81 50%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.1 0.1 3.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.9 3.1 0.5 0.0 7.2 4th
5th 0.4 3.7 5.8 1.3 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.3 3.6 8.5 3.6 0.2 16.2 6th
7th 0.1 3.0 9.5 5.0 0.4 0.0 18.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 7.0 6.1 0.8 0.0 15.5 8th
9th 0.4 4.5 6.0 1.3 12.2 9th
10th 0.0 1.6 3.9 1.4 0.0 7.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.3 0.1 4.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.2 2.1 12th
13th 0.2 0.6 0.3 1.0 13th
14th 0.3 0.3 0.6 14th
15th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 5.7 11.6 17.7 20.9 18.7 13.0 6.8 2.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 25.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 2.3% 0.0    0.0
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.4% 86.0% 7.0% 79.1% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 85.0%
15-5 2.3% 69.0% 4.0% 65.0% 9.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.7 67.7%
14-6 6.8% 46.2% 3.8% 42.4% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.3 0.0 3.6 44.1%
13-7 13.0% 27.8% 2.2% 25.6% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 0.2 9.4 26.2%
12-8 18.7% 13.5% 1.7% 11.9% 10.7 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.6 0.2 16.2 12.1%
11-9 20.9% 4.9% 0.7% 4.2% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 19.9 4.2%
10-10 17.7% 2.8% 0.6% 2.1% 11.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 17.2 2.2%
9-11 11.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.5 0.2%
8-12 5.7% 0.4% 0.4% 12.0 0.0 5.7
7-13 2.2% 2.2
6-14 0.6% 0.6
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 12.9% 1.3% 11.6% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 3.2 6.4 0.7 87.1 11.7%