Winthrop
Big South
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#193
Expected Predictive Rating-1.6#212
Pace75.9#47
Improvement-1.1#292

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#213
First Shot-0.4#195
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#243
Layup/Dunks+2.2#101
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#338
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#223
Freethrows+2.0#72
Improvement+0.3#133

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#164
First Shot+1.6#131
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#287
Layups/Dunks+3.6#69
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#3
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#335
Freethrows-0.1#192
Improvement-1.4#325
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.9% 17.0% 12.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 13.9 14.6
.500 or above 65.5% 84.4% 63.9%
.500 or above in Conference 71.4% 82.3% 70.4%
Conference Champion 15.2% 22.2% 14.6%
Last Place in Conference 4.3% 2.5% 4.4%
First Four1.1% 0.5% 1.2%
First Round12.3% 16.7% 12.0%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisville (Away) - 8.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 54 - 9
Quad 413 - 516 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 204   Arkansas Little Rock W 82-67 64%     1 - 0 +9.8 -1.8 +10.0
  Nov 11, 2024 118   @ Virginia Tech L 52-58 22%     1 - 1 +0.4 -11.6 +11.3
  Nov 15, 2024 210   William & Mary W 86-85 65%     2 - 1 -4.4 -1.4 -3.1
  Nov 16, 2024 220   Georgia Southern L 87-89 66%     2 - 2 -7.8 -6.7 -0.6
  Nov 17, 2024 264   NC Central W 77-75 74%     3 - 2 -6.4 -0.2 -6.2
  Nov 22, 2024 47   @ Louisville L 70-85 8%    
  Nov 25, 2024 338   LIU Brooklyn W 83-70 88%    
  Dec 03, 2024 300   @ Queens W 80-77 60%    
  Dec 07, 2024 296   Coastal Carolina W 74-65 79%    
  Dec 17, 2024 82   @ Florida St. L 70-82 15%    
  Dec 21, 2024 248   Mercer W 78-72 70%    
  Dec 29, 2024 26   @ Indiana L 67-85 5%    
  Jan 02, 2025 317   South Carolina Upstate W 84-74 82%    
  Jan 04, 2025 234   @ Radford L 73-74 48%    
  Jan 08, 2025 218   @ Gardner-Webb L 75-77 43%    
  Jan 11, 2025 178   Longwood W 72-70 58%    
  Jan 15, 2025 311   Charleston Southern W 80-70 81%    
  Jan 18, 2025 176   @ UNC Asheville L 74-78 37%    
  Jan 25, 2025 124   @ High Point L 74-81 26%    
  Jan 29, 2025 258   Presbyterian W 77-70 72%    
  Feb 01, 2025 218   Gardner-Webb W 78-74 64%    
  Feb 05, 2025 311   @ Charleston Southern W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 08, 2025 317   @ South Carolina Upstate W 81-77 64%    
  Feb 12, 2025 234   Radford W 76-71 69%    
  Feb 15, 2025 124   High Point L 77-78 46%    
  Feb 19, 2025 258   @ Presbyterian W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 26, 2025 178   @ Longwood L 69-73 37%    
  Mar 01, 2025 176   UNC Asheville W 77-75 58%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.4 4.3 2.6 0.9 0.1 15.2 1st
2nd 0.9 4.3 6.8 4.1 1.3 0.2 17.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 5.0 6.4 2.8 0.4 0.0 15.7 3rd
4th 0.8 5.2 6.2 2.1 0.2 14.5 4th
5th 0.7 4.2 5.6 1.8 0.1 12.3 5th
6th 0.5 3.5 4.6 1.6 0.1 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.5 1.0 0.1 7.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.7 1.7 0.7 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.2 9th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.9 4.9 8.4 10.6 13.5 13.9 13.4 12.1 8.9 5.6 2.8 0.9 0.1 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
14-2 94.2% 2.6    2.3 0.3
13-3 77.2% 4.3    3.0 1.3 0.1
12-4 49.5% 4.4    2.1 1.9 0.4 0.0
11-5 18.8% 2.3    0.5 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.7% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 15.2% 15.2 8.9 4.7 1.3 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 52.6% 52.6% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-1 0.9% 40.8% 40.8% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-2 2.8% 40.3% 40.3% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.7
13-3 5.6% 29.9% 29.9% 13.8 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 3.9
12-4 8.9% 24.8% 24.8% 14.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.1 6.7
11-5 12.1% 19.0% 19.0% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.2 9.8
10-6 13.4% 13.2% 13.2% 14.8 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.3 11.7
9-7 13.9% 9.5% 9.5% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 12.6
8-8 13.5% 7.0% 7.0% 15.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 12.6
7-9 10.6% 5.2% 5.2% 15.8 0.1 0.5 10.1
6-10 8.4% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3 8.1
5-11 4.9% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.2 4.8
4-12 2.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.8
3-13 1.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-14 0.5% 0.5
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16
Total 100% 12.9% 12.9% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.5 1.9 3.7 4.3 2.5 87.1 0.0%