Longwood
Big South
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.2#200
Expected Predictive Rating-1.3#184
Pace70.9#106
Improvement-2.5#293

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#175
First Shot-1.1#211
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#117
Layup/Dunks+2.0#107
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#185
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.6#351
Freethrows+3.7#18
Improvement+2.0#87

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#233
First Shot-3.2#277
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#94
Layups/Dunks-6.0#357
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#43
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#131
Freethrows-0.4#215
Improvement-4.5#350
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.6% 8.5% 7.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.8 15.3
.500 or above 96.1% 100.0% 94.0%
.500 or above in Conference 60.6% 89.8% 44.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.2% 0.7%
First Round7.4% 8.5% 6.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Away) - 35.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 35 - 36 - 7
Quad 411 - 616 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 330   Morgan St. W 84-66 84%     1 - 0 +5.0 -1.2 +5.6
  Nov 13, 2024 130   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76-62 45%     2 - 0 +13.2 -8.2 +19.5
  Nov 16, 2024 306   Tennessee Martin W 64-62 80%     3 - 0 -8.9 -12.2 +3.4
  Nov 19, 2024 299   @ Binghamton W 66-60 61%     4 - 0 +0.9 +1.1 +0.7
  Nov 22, 2024 104   UAB W 89-81 27%     5 - 0 +12.1 +9.9 +1.9
  Nov 24, 2024 86   McNeese St. L 69-84 20%     5 - 1 -8.4 -0.8 -7.6
  Nov 25, 2024 56   Kansas St. L 64-80 12%     5 - 2 -5.4 -3.2 -2.2
  Dec 05, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 80-76 95%     6 - 2 -17.0 -0.7 -16.2
  Dec 14, 2024 310   NC Central L 70-77 80%     6 - 3 -18.2 -9.3 -9.0
  Dec 18, 2024 183   @ Campbell W 77-55 37%     7 - 3 +23.3 +12.3 +12.5
  Dec 20, 2024 310   @ NC Central W 82-67 65%     8 - 3 +8.9 +6.2 +3.1
  Dec 29, 2024 37   @ SMU L 82-98 6%     8 - 4 -0.9 +7.8 -7.3
  Jan 02, 2025 270   @ Presbyterian L 60-68 54%     8 - 5 0 - 1 -11.2 -10.9 -0.8
  Jan 04, 2025 285   Charleston Southern W 83-78 76%     9 - 5 1 - 1 -4.5 +7.9 -12.3
  Jan 08, 2025 184   UNC Asheville W 85-76 56%     10 - 5 2 - 1 +5.2 +8.4 -3.1
  Jan 11, 2025 196   @ Winthrop L 76-95 40%     10 - 6 2 - 2 -18.5 -2.0 -15.5
  Jan 16, 2025 96   High Point W 82-80 33%     11 - 6 3 - 2 +4.5 +5.8 -1.3
  Jan 22, 2025 177   @ Radford W 77-74 36%     12 - 6 4 - 2 +4.6 +11.3 -6.3
  Jan 25, 2025 345   South Carolina Upstate W 80-54 88%     13 - 6 5 - 2 +11.1 -1.8 +12.7
  Jan 29, 2025 257   @ Gardner-Webb L 87-92 52%     13 - 7 5 - 3 -7.7 +6.0 -13.4
  Feb 01, 2025 285   @ Charleston Southern L 85-89 59%     13 - 8 5 - 4 -8.4 +10.3 -18.6
  Feb 08, 2025 177   Radford L 69-71 55%     13 - 9 5 - 5 -5.5 -1.0 -4.6
  Feb 13, 2025 96   @ High Point L 72-83 18%     13 - 10 5 - 6 -3.4 -0.8 -2.9
  Feb 15, 2025 270   Presbyterian L 68-77 72%     13 - 11 5 - 7 -17.3 -8.1 -9.4
  Feb 19, 2025 257   Gardner-Webb W 90-77 71%     14 - 11 6 - 7 +5.2 +8.4 -3.8
  Feb 22, 2025 184   @ UNC Asheville L 76-79 36%    
  Feb 27, 2025 196   Winthrop W 83-81 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 345   @ South Carolina Upstate W 86-78 75%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 4.4 4.4 3rd
4th 0.1 8.9 9.1 18.1 4th
5th 0.8 26.2 34.9 3.3 65.2 5th
6th 4.1 6.0 10.1 6th
7th 1.9 0.3 2.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 6.8 32.7 43.8 16.7 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 16.7% 10.0% 10.0% 14.6 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.0 15.1
8-8 43.8% 7.7% 7.7% 15.1 0.0 0.5 2.1 0.7 40.5
7-9 32.7% 6.4% 6.4% 15.5 0.0 0.9 1.2 30.6
6-10 6.8% 6.6% 6.6% 15.8 0.1 0.4 6.3
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 15.1 0.1 1.2 4.0 2.3 92.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.7% 100.0% 14.6 3.0 40.1 54.5 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.5%
Lose Out 3.9%