Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Horizon
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#130
Expected Predictive Rating+2.0#140
Pace70.8#108
Improvement+2.2#95

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#119
First Shot-1.7#222
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#21
Layup/Dunks+3.0#71
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#149
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#331
Freethrows+0.1#165
Improvement+1.8#96

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#177
First Shot+1.6#125
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#306
Layups/Dunks-0.5#195
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#206
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#97
Freethrows+0.0#183
Improvement+0.4#171
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.2% 28.4% 22.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.4 14.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 39.5% 73.7% 8.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round25.2% 28.4% 22.2%
Second Round1.6% 2.1% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Robert Morris (Away) - 47.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 37 - 68 - 8
Quad 413 - 220 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 100   @ Northern Iowa L 68-87 30%     0 - 1 -11.9 +0.4 -12.8
  Nov 13, 2024 200   @ Longwood L 62-76 55%     0 - 2 -13.6 -19.9 +8.2
  Nov 19, 2024 132   @ Duquesne W 80-74 40%     1 - 2 +10.2 +12.1 -1.8
  Nov 22, 2024 201   Portland St. W 91-74 73%     2 - 2 +12.3 +17.6 -5.4
  Nov 23, 2024 142   Wofford W 76-74 62%     3 - 2 +0.5 +6.6 -5.9
  Nov 24, 2024 126   St. Thomas W 69-65 60%     4 - 2 +3.2 -7.6 +10.8
  Nov 27, 2024 81   @ Central Florida L 76-84 23%     4 - 3 +1.6 +4.0 -2.2
  Nov 30, 2024 280   @ Southern Miss L 65-66 71%     4 - 4 -5.1 -1.1 -4.0
  Dec 05, 2024 170   Cleveland St. W 79-67 67%     5 - 4 1 - 0 +9.0 +13.2 -3.2
  Dec 11, 2024 337   @ Green Bay W 88-67 84%     6 - 4 2 - 0 +12.1 +10.7 +1.5
  Dec 15, 2024 102   Akron W 100-81 40%     7 - 4 +23.3 +11.3 +8.7
  Dec 29, 2024 326   IU Indianapolis W 88-81 90%     8 - 4 3 - 0 -5.6 +6.4 -11.8
  Jan 02, 2025 198   @ Oakland L 49-65 55%     8 - 5 3 - 1 -15.5 -17.7 -0.1
  Jan 04, 2025 334   @ Detroit Mercy W 64-56 83%     9 - 5 4 - 1 -0.3 -10.2 +10.0
  Jan 08, 2025 153   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 73-78 44%     9 - 6 4 - 2 -1.9 -8.2 +6.9
  Jan 11, 2025 337   Green Bay W 70-59 92%     10 - 6 5 - 2 -3.0 -7.9 +5.2
  Jan 17, 2025 186   Youngstown St. W 79-64 71%     11 - 6 6 - 2 +10.9 +5.6 +5.3
  Jan 19, 2025 173   Robert Morris L 79-81 68%     11 - 7 6 - 3 -5.1 +3.2 -8.3
  Jan 22, 2025 220   @ Wright St. W 95-79 59%     12 - 7 7 - 3 +15.3 +19.3 -4.0
  Jan 24, 2025 241   @ Northern Kentucky W 79-59 64%     13 - 7 8 - 3 +18.1 +10.7 +8.5
  Feb 02, 2025 153   Purdue Fort Wayne L 79-81 64%     13 - 8 8 - 4 -3.9 -0.5 -3.3
  Feb 05, 2025 326   @ IU Indianapolis W 84-80 OT 81%     14 - 8 9 - 4 -3.5 -2.1 -1.6
  Feb 08, 2025 170   @ Cleveland St. L 60-77 48%     14 - 9 9 - 5 -14.9 -12.5 -1.6
  Feb 14, 2025 220   Wright St. W 88-80 OT 76%     15 - 9 10 - 5 +2.2 +8.0 -5.9
  Feb 16, 2025 241   Northern Kentucky W 92-70 79%     16 - 9 11 - 5 +15.0 +31.9 -13.3
  Feb 21, 2025 186   @ Youngstown St. W 84-74 53%     17 - 9 12 - 5 +11.0 +13.6 -2.5
  Feb 23, 2025 173   @ Robert Morris L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 27, 2025 198   Oakland W 74-68 74%    
  Mar 01, 2025 334   Detroit Mercy W 79-64 93%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 11.3 28.3 39.5 1st
2nd 0.4 23.8 4.9 29.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 7.3 13.8 21.2 3rd
4th 0.2 7.7 7.9 4th
5th 0.9 1.5 2.4 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 1.1 16.8 48.9 33.2 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 85.2% 28.3    15.8 12.4
14-6 23.0% 11.3    0.0 1.0 3.9 4.9 1.4
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 39.5% 39.5 15.9 13.5 3.9 4.9 1.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 33.2% 30.9% 30.9% 13.2 0.0 1.3 5.6 3.2 0.2 22.9
14-6 48.9% 23.6% 23.6% 13.9 0.1 2.8 6.6 1.9 37.4
13-7 16.8% 19.1% 19.1% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.0 0.0 13.6
12-8 1.1% 14.5% 14.5% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 25.2% 25.2% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 1.4 8.9 11.7 3.1 0.0 74.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.2% 100.0% 13.2 0.1 12.3 55.1 31.0 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.1%
Lose Out 0.4%