Duquesne
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#162
Expected Predictive Rating-5.5#260
Pace63.7#311
Improvement+5.1#11

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#232
First Shot-3.8#291
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#90
Layup/Dunks-3.1#296
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#307
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#41
Freethrows-3.2#343
Improvement+3.0#22

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#115
First Shot+1.8#115
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#168
Layups/Dunks+1.3#123
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#148
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#90
Freethrows-2.2#320
Improvement+2.1#46
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.9% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 5.4% 9.7% 2.6%
.500 or above in Conference 21.3% 33.0% 13.8%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 16.8% 8.7% 22.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.6% 0.9% 0.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rhode Island (Home) - 39.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 62 - 8
Quad 35 - 97 - 17
Quad 44 - 411 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 110   Lipscomb L 72-77 45%     0 - 1 -3.8 -4.6 +1.1
  Nov 08, 2024 111   Princeton L 68-75 36%     0 - 2 -3.5 -6.8 +3.5
  Nov 15, 2024 102   @ DePaul L 58-84 22%     0 - 3 -18.2 -3.8 -17.9
  Nov 19, 2024 132   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74-80 54%     0 - 4 -7.3 -0.4 -7.1
  Nov 24, 2024 119   South Dakota St. L 60-71 39%     0 - 5 -8.3 -7.9 -1.1
  Nov 25, 2024 248   Hampton L 59-64 67%     0 - 6 -9.8 -12.0 +1.8
  Nov 26, 2024 309   Old Dominion W 67-54 77%     1 - 6 +4.9 -10.8 +15.5
  Dec 03, 2024 206   St. Peter's L 59-62 68%     1 - 7 -8.1 -4.0 -4.7
  Dec 06, 2024 215   Delaware W 80-66 70%     2 - 7 +8.3 +8.1 +1.2
  Dec 11, 2024 216   Maine L 56-61 71%     2 - 8 -10.9 -9.8 -1.8
  Dec 14, 2024 214   Towson W 65-47 59%     3 - 8 +15.4 +11.5 +9.0
  Dec 21, 2024 71   UC Irvine W 70-54 32%     4 - 8 +20.5 +14.4 +8.8
  Dec 31, 2024 94   Rhode Island L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 04, 2025 121   @ Davidson L 64-70 29%    
  Jan 08, 2025 86   Saint Joseph's L 66-70 36%    
  Jan 15, 2025 136   @ George Washington L 67-72 34%    
  Jan 18, 2025 87   St. Bonaventure L 62-66 36%    
  Jan 21, 2025 47   Dayton L 62-70 23%    
  Jan 26, 2025 177   @ Fordham L 68-70 42%    
  Jan 29, 2025 86   @ Saint Joseph's L 63-73 18%    
  Feb 01, 2025 200   Massachusetts W 72-67 66%    
  Feb 05, 2025 217   @ Richmond L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 08, 2025 108   Loyola Chicago L 66-68 44%    
  Feb 15, 2025 47   @ Dayton L 59-73 10%    
  Feb 19, 2025 177   Fordham W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 87   @ St. Bonaventure L 59-69 19%    
  Feb 26, 2025 164   @ La Salle L 68-71 40%    
  Mar 01, 2025 89   George Mason L 62-65 38%    
  Mar 04, 2025 60   Virginia Commonwealth L 61-67 28%    
  Mar 08, 2025 143   @ Saint Louis L 70-74 36%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 2.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 2.2 0.6 0.0 4.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.1 1.5 0.1 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.6 3.0 0.4 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.2 2.9 4.9 1.1 0.0 9.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.9 5.5 2.6 0.1 10.3 10th
11th 0.0 1.2 5.4 4.3 0.6 0.0 11.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 4.0 5.6 1.3 0.0 11.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.7 3.5 5.5 2.1 0.2 11.8 13th
14th 0.1 0.7 2.9 4.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.1 14th
15th 0.2 1.1 2.6 3.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 9.3 15th
Total 0.2 1.1 3.3 6.8 10.8 13.7 15.4 14.8 12.5 9.0 5.9 3.6 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 83.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 48.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 15.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 10.4% 10.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.3% 9.2% 9.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.8% 5.3% 5.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
12-6 1.7% 5.1% 5.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
11-7 3.6% 2.5% 2.5% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.5
10-8 5.9% 2.0% 2.0% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.7
9-9 9.0% 0.9% 0.9% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.9
8-10 12.5% 0.4% 0.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 12.5
7-11 14.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.0 14.7
6-12 15.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.4
5-13 13.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.7
4-14 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.8
3-15 6.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.8
2-16 3.3% 3.3
1-17 1.1% 1.1
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%