UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.3#60
Expected Predictive Rating+13.6#34
Pace72.2#86
Improvement-0.6#208

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#167
First Shot+0.6#157
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#195
Layup/Dunks+3.4#70
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#181
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#326
Freethrows+2.2#61
Improvement-0.5#211

Defense
Total Defense+8.8#11
First Shot+6.6#23
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#33
Layups/Dunks+3.7#56
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#292
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#157
Freethrows+3.3#14
Improvement-0.1#187
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.4% 3.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.3% 57.7% 48.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.1% 8.9% 2.6%
Average Seed 10.6 10.4 11.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 91.1% 94.0% 83.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.5% 3.0% 1.3%
First Round54.0% 56.3% 47.8%
Second Round16.8% 18.3% 12.7%
Sweet Sixteen4.3% 4.7% 3.2%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.2% 0.8%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Away) - 73.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 24 - 15 - 2
Quad 311 - 216 - 4
Quad 412 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 152   @ Loyola Marymount W 66-51 71%     1 - 0 +18.6 -2.3 +21.1
  Nov 10, 2024 113   @ Northern Iowa W 80-60 63%     2 - 0 +25.7 +9.1 +16.8
  Nov 16, 2024 203   Pepperdine W 80-62 90%     3 - 0 +13.1 +5.3 +7.8
  Nov 22, 2024 237   @ Weber St. W 93-87 84%     4 - 0 +4.4 +10.6 -6.6
  Nov 28, 2024 183   Kennesaw St. W 76-59 83%     5 - 0 +16.0 -2.3 +17.2
  Nov 29, 2024 159   Kent St. W 51-39 80%     6 - 0 +12.3 -11.9 +25.6
  Nov 30, 2024 176   Towson W 67-60 82%     7 - 0 +6.4 -1.2 +7.9
  Dec 05, 2024 234   Cal St. Bakersfield W 82-66 92%     8 - 0 1 - 0 +9.2 +6.1 +3.3
  Dec 14, 2024 70   @ Oregon St. L 55-67 45%     8 - 1 -1.4 -14.7 +13.4
  Dec 19, 2024 139   @ Belmont W 92-84 68%     9 - 1 +12.3 +9.8 +1.7
  Dec 21, 2024 116   @ Duquesne L 54-70 64%     9 - 2 -10.4 -5.7 -7.3
  Dec 30, 2024 172   @ California Baptist W 71-63 75%     10 - 2 +10.3 +1.5 +9.1
  Jan 02, 2025 286   @ Cal Poly W 98-89 OT 89%     11 - 2 2 - 0 +4.6 -0.4 +3.0
  Jan 04, 2025 175   UC Riverside W 81-57 88%     12 - 2 3 - 0 +20.7 +8.8 +12.6
  Jan 09, 2025 133   @ Cal St. Northridge W 77-67 67%     13 - 2 4 - 0 +14.6 +1.1 +12.7
  Jan 11, 2025 79   @ UC San Diego W 60-52 47%     14 - 2 5 - 0 +18.0 -0.3 +19.3
  Jan 16, 2025 309   Cal St. Fullerton W 82-62 96%     15 - 2 6 - 0 +8.8 -0.7 +8.2
  Jan 18, 2025 286   Cal Poly W 101-71 95%     16 - 2 7 - 0 +20.1 +10.3 +6.3
  Jan 23, 2025 175   @ UC Riverside W 73-66 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 181   Hawaii W 74-61 89%    
  Jan 30, 2025 293   @ Long Beach St. W 75-61 91%    
  Feb 01, 2025 228   UC Davis W 74-58 93%    
  Feb 08, 2025 79   UC San Diego W 71-66 67%    
  Feb 13, 2025 165   UC Santa Barbara W 74-62 87%    
  Feb 16, 2025 181   @ Hawaii W 71-64 75%    
  Feb 20, 2025 133   Cal St. Northridge W 80-70 83%    
  Feb 22, 2025 234   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-63 83%    
  Feb 27, 2025 309   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 75-60 91%    
  Mar 01, 2025 293   Long Beach St. W 78-58 97%    
  Mar 06, 2025 228   @ UC Davis W 71-61 82%    
  Mar 08, 2025 165   @ UC Santa Barbara W 71-65 71%    
Projected Record 27 - 4 18 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.1 7.7 18.5 26.3 24.6 11.8 91.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 2.7 2.7 1.2 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 4.9 10.4 19.6 26.3 24.6 11.8 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 11.8    11.8
19-1 100.0% 24.6    24.6
18-2 100.0% 26.3    25.1 1.2
17-3 94.0% 18.5    15.1 3.3 0.0
16-4 73.7% 7.7    4.4 3.1 0.1
15-5 42.3% 2.1    0.9 1.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 15.5% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.8% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 91.1% 91.1 82.0 8.8 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 11.8% 76.9% 64.6% 12.3% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.0 2.7 34.8%
19-1 24.6% 63.1% 57.8% 5.3% 10.7 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.9 9.5 1.5 9.1 12.5%
18-2 26.3% 55.3% 53.3% 1.9% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.9 9.7 3.8 0.0 11.8 4.2%
17-3 19.6% 47.3% 46.7% 0.6% 11.4 0.0 0.1 5.2 3.9 0.1 10.4 1.1%
16-4 10.4% 43.7% 43.4% 0.3% 11.6 1.8 2.6 0.1 5.9 0.5%
15-5 4.9% 34.1% 33.9% 0.2% 11.8 0.5 1.1 0.1 3.2 0.3%
14-6 1.9% 31.0% 31.0% 11.9 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.3
13-7 0.4% 16.7% 16.7% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.4
12-8 0.1% 0.0 0.1
11-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 55.3% 51.9% 3.4% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.7 1.5 2.6 5.3 28.2 13.4 0.3 44.7 7.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.6% 100.0% 7.7 0.4 1.8 9.6 18.9 20.9 14.2 14.7 11.2 8.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.7% 36.3% 10.3 0.4 0.4 1.1 4.4 11.5 17.4 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5% 32.0% 10.3 0.7 4.1 11.6 15.0 0.7