UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.7#85
Expected Predictive Rating+9.4#60
Pace71.3#95
Improvement-5.7#349

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#197
First Shot-0.5#193
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#216
Layup/Dunks+2.8#82
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#186
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#326
Freethrows+2.0#72
Improvement-1.7#269

Defense
Total Defense+7.6#23
First Shot+5.6#34
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#41
Layups/Dunks+3.4#62
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#301
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#180
Freethrows+3.2#13
Improvement-4.0#341
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.5% 29.9% 23.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.6 11.5 11.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 18.8% 23.1% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round28.4% 29.7% 23.6%
Second Round5.3% 5.6% 4.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.0% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Away) - 77.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 01 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 12 - 2
Quad 23 - 24 - 3
Quad 311 - 315 - 7
Quad 411 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 169   @ Loyola Marymount W 66-51 67%     1 - 0 +17.2 -2.3 +19.7
  Nov 10, 2024 100   @ Northern Iowa W 80-60 48%     2 - 0 +27.1 +11.1 +16.2
  Nov 16, 2024 226   Pepperdine W 80-62 88%     3 - 0 +11.9 +4.0 +8.0
  Nov 22, 2024 297   @ Weber St. W 93-87 86%     4 - 0 +0.9 +9.7 -9.2
  Nov 28, 2024 131   Kennesaw St. W 76-59 69%     5 - 0 +18.6 +0.4 +17.2
  Nov 29, 2024 137   Kent St. W 51-39 70%     6 - 0 +13.3 -13.8 +28.5
  Nov 30, 2024 157   Towson W 67-60 73%     7 - 0 +7.4 +0.1 +7.7
  Dec 05, 2024 240   Cal St. Bakersfield W 82-66 89%     8 - 0 1 - 0 +9.1 +5.2 +4.1
  Dec 14, 2024 87   @ Oregon St. L 55-67 41%     8 - 1 -3.1 -17.0 +14.1
  Dec 19, 2024 140   @ Belmont W 92-84 62%     9 - 1 +11.7 +7.7 +3.2
  Dec 21, 2024 132   @ Duquesne L 54-70 60%     9 - 2 -11.8 -5.9 -8.6
  Dec 30, 2024 158   @ California Baptist W 71-63 65%     10 - 2 +10.8 +2.2 +8.8
  Jan 02, 2025 242   @ Cal Poly W 98-89 OT 79%     11 - 2 2 - 0 +7.1 +1.1 +3.9
  Jan 04, 2025 149   UC Riverside W 81-57 79%     12 - 2 3 - 0 +22.1 +8.3 +14.5
  Jan 09, 2025 114   @ Cal St. Northridge W 77-67 55%     13 - 2 4 - 0 +15.4 +1.4 +13.2
  Jan 11, 2025 54   @ UC San Diego W 60-52 27%     14 - 2 5 - 0 +21.1 +1.5 +20.7
  Jan 16, 2025 342   Cal St. Fullerton W 82-62 97%     15 - 2 6 - 0 +5.4 -1.7 +5.8
  Jan 18, 2025 242   Cal Poly W 101-71 89%     16 - 2 7 - 0 +23.0 +12.1 +7.4
  Jan 23, 2025 149   @ UC Riverside L 80-84 OT 63%     16 - 3 7 - 1 -0.8 -3.4 +3.1
  Jan 25, 2025 207   Hawaii W 71-55 86%     17 - 3 8 - 1 +10.9 -4.7 +15.3
  Jan 30, 2025 304   @ Long Beach St. W 80-75 OT 88%     18 - 3 9 - 1 -0.8 +2.5 -3.4
  Feb 01, 2025 222   UC Davis W 73-66 88%     19 - 3 10 - 1 +1.2 +2.4 -1.1
  Feb 08, 2025 54   UC San Diego L 67-85 45%     19 - 4 10 - 2 -10.0 -0.8 -9.4
  Feb 13, 2025 145   UC Santa Barbara W 62-60 79%     20 - 4 11 - 2 +0.4 -9.3 +9.8
  Feb 15, 2025 207   @ Hawaii W 66-49 74%     21 - 4 12 - 2 +17.0 -0.3 +18.6
  Feb 20, 2025 114   Cal St. Northridge L 72-84 73%     21 - 5 12 - 3 -11.7 +2.2 -14.4
  Feb 22, 2025 240   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-65 78%    
  Feb 27, 2025 342   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 76-60 93%    
  Mar 01, 2025 304   Long Beach St. W 77-59 95%    
  Mar 06, 2025 222   @ UC Davis W 69-62 74%    
  Mar 08, 2025 145   @ UC Santa Barbara W 70-67 60%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.5 15.2 18.8 1st
2nd 0.1 3.0 18.9 38.5 17.2 77.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.9 1.2 3.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.5 4.9 20.2 42.0 32.4 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 46.8% 15.2    2.7 12.4
16-4 8.3% 3.5    0.3 2.7 0.6
15-5 0.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 18.8% 18.8 3.0 15.2 0.6



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 32.4% 32.5% 32.2% 0.3% 11.3 0.0 0.3 6.7 3.5 0.0 21.9 0.5%
16-4 42.0% 29.9% 29.8% 0.0% 11.7 0.1 4.0 8.2 0.2 29.5 0.1%
15-5 20.2% 22.3% 22.3% 11.8 1.1 3.2 0.2 15.7
14-6 4.9% 16.3% 16.3% 11.9 0.1 0.7 0.0 4.1
13-7 0.5% 14.6% 14.6% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.4
12-8 0.0% 0.0
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 28.5% 28.3% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.3 12.0 15.7 0.5 71.5 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.4% 100.0% 11.3 0.2 2.5 63.7 33.4 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 13.9% 0.7% 11.3 0.5 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.0% 0.1% 11.0 0.1