UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.1#57
Expected Predictive Rating+16.4#15
Pace70.2#153
Improvement-0.3#216

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#116
First Shot-0.2#190
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#58
Layup/Dunks+4.1#53
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#294
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#245
Freethrows-0.1#190
Improvement-0.1#193

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#18
First Shot+1.5#131
After Offensive Rebounds+5.3#6
Layups/Dunks+2.0#120
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#319
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#158
Freethrows+1.5#98
Improvement-0.2#220
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.7% 3.2% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 5.6% 6.6% 1.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.7% 58.1% 45.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.1% 8.3% 2.7%
Average Seed 10.6 10.5 11.5
.500 or above 99.5% 99.7% 98.3%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 99.4% 98.3%
Conference Champion 70.1% 72.3% 60.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.9% 2.1% 0.9%
First Round54.9% 57.2% 45.4%
Second Round20.5% 22.2% 13.4%
Sweet Sixteen7.3% 8.0% 4.2%
Elite Eight2.2% 2.5% 1.0%
Final Four0.8% 0.9% 0.2%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Weber St. (Away) - 80.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 23 - 23 - 2
Quad 312 - 315 - 5
Quad 412 - 127 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 152   @ Loyola Marymount W 66-51 71%     1 - 0 +18.4 -4.1 +22.7
  Nov 10, 2024 118   @ Northern Iowa W 80-60 61%     2 - 0 +26.3 +10.1 +16.4
  Nov 16, 2024 238   Pepperdine W 80-62 92%     3 - 0 +11.2 +3.0 +8.2
  Nov 22, 2024 225   @ Weber St. W 72-63 81%    
  Nov 28, 2024 160   Kennesaw St. W 84-75 80%    
  Nov 29, 2024 123   Kent St. W 71-65 72%    
  Nov 30, 2024 134   Towson W 68-61 75%    
  Dec 05, 2024 239   Cal St. Bakersfield W 76-60 93%    
  Dec 14, 2024 98   @ Oregon St. W 67-66 53%    
  Dec 19, 2024 141   @ Belmont W 78-73 66%    
  Dec 21, 2024 207   @ Duquesne W 71-63 77%    
  Dec 30, 2024 181   @ California Baptist W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 02, 2025 294   @ Cal Poly W 80-67 88%    
  Jan 04, 2025 198   UC Riverside W 78-64 89%    
  Jan 09, 2025 194   @ Cal St. Northridge W 78-70 75%    
  Jan 11, 2025 158   @ UC San Diego W 72-66 70%    
  Jan 16, 2025 270   Cal St. Fullerton W 77-59 94%    
  Jan 18, 2025 294   Cal Poly W 83-64 95%    
  Jan 23, 2025 198   @ UC Riverside W 75-67 75%    
  Jan 25, 2025 174   Hawaii W 74-61 87%    
  Jan 30, 2025 259   @ Long Beach St. W 75-64 83%    
  Feb 01, 2025 169   UC Davis W 78-65 86%    
  Feb 08, 2025 158   UC San Diego W 75-63 85%    
  Feb 13, 2025 119   UC Santa Barbara W 76-67 78%    
  Feb 16, 2025 174   @ Hawaii W 71-64 72%    
  Feb 20, 2025 194   Cal St. Northridge W 81-67 88%    
  Feb 22, 2025 239   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 73-63 80%    
  Feb 27, 2025 270   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 74-62 84%    
  Mar 01, 2025 259   Long Beach St. W 78-61 93%    
  Mar 06, 2025 169   @ UC Davis W 75-68 71%    
  Mar 08, 2025 119   @ UC Santa Barbara W 73-70 59%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 5.0 10.3 15.3 16.9 14.0 6.7 70.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.0 5.2 4.0 1.9 0.3 17.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.3 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 3.1 5.0 7.8 11.0 14.5 17.1 17.3 14.0 6.7 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 6.7    6.7
19-1 100.0% 14.0    13.9 0.1
18-2 98.2% 16.9    15.9 1.0
17-3 89.1% 15.3    12.7 2.5 0.1
16-4 71.4% 10.3    7.1 2.9 0.3
15-5 45.4% 5.0    2.5 2.0 0.5 0.0
14-6 19.8% 1.5    0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 5.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 70.1% 70.1 59.3 9.3 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 6.7% 90.6% 77.6% 13.0% 6.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.6 58.1%
19-1 14.0% 80.0% 70.9% 9.1% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.6 3.6 1.4 0.0 2.8 31.4%
18-2 17.3% 68.6% 63.7% 4.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 5.5 4.0 0.2 5.4 13.5%
17-3 17.1% 57.9% 56.1% 1.8% 11.6 0.1 0.3 3.5 5.6 0.5 0.0 7.2 4.1%
16-4 14.5% 50.3% 49.9% 0.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 4.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 7.2 0.7%
15-5 11.0% 42.7% 42.6% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.4 3.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 6.3 0.1%
14-6 7.8% 34.9% 34.8% 0.0% 12.5 0.1 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.1 0.0%
13-7 5.0% 24.3% 24.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.8
12-8 3.1% 16.8% 16.8% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.6
11-9 1.7% 10.9% 10.9% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5
10-10 1.0% 6.4% 6.4% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
9-11 0.5% 6.9% 6.9% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
8-12 0.2% 2.1% 2.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 55.7% 52.4% 3.4% 10.6 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.3 2.2 3.6 15.0 21.2 4.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 44.3 7.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 3.6 11.9 15.7 19.3 26.0 15.9 7.9 2.1 0.2 0.7 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 85.3% 5.7 2.7 8.0 18.7 13.3 13.3 10.7 9.3 5.3 2.7 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 76.1% 7.4 2.2 2.2 8.7 13.0 17.4 10.9 8.7 8.7 2.2 2.2