Hawaii
Big West
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#207
Expected Predictive Rating-2.1#198
Pace64.8#273
Improvement-4.4#334

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#245
First Shot-1.8#225
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#244
Layup/Dunks+2.8#83
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#218
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#325
Freethrows+1.1#111
Improvement-4.4#346

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#173
First Shot-0.3#194
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#139
Layups/Dunks-1.0#211
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#188
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#90
Freethrows-1.7#294
Improvement+0.0#188
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.8% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.2 15.0
.500 or above 31.0% 67.0% 28.7%
.500 or above in Conference 5.1% 25.2% 3.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.3% 0.8% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Away) - 6.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 8
Quad 32 - 63 - 14
Quad 412 - 214 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 163   San Jose St. W 80-69 51%     1 - 0 +8.3 +13.5 -4.0
  Nov 11, 2024 277   Pacific W 76-66 73%     2 - 0 +1.0 +0.2 +1.0
  Nov 17, 2024 297   Weber St. W 73-68 OT 77%     3 - 0 -5.1 -6.7 +1.5
  Nov 22, 2024 40   North Carolina L 69-87 13%     3 - 1 -8.4 +1.6 -10.5
  Dec 03, 2024 89   @ Grand Canyon L 72-78 15%     3 - 2 +2.4 -0.4 +3.2
  Dec 07, 2024 304   @ Long Beach St. L 68-76 62%     3 - 3 0 - 1 -13.8 -4.1 -10.2
  Dec 14, 2024 199   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 71-62 58%     4 - 3 +4.3 +1.6 +3.3
  Dec 22, 2024 235   Charlotte W 78-61 65%     5 - 3 +10.5 +6.3 +5.2
  Dec 23, 2024 48   Nebraska L 55-69 15%     5 - 4 -5.5 -6.6 -0.7
  Dec 25, 2024 198   Oakland W 73-70 OT 58%     6 - 4 -1.6 -2.3 +0.6
  Jan 02, 2025 145   UC Santa Barbara L 61-64 46%     6 - 5 0 - 2 -4.6 -3.9 -1.2
  Jan 04, 2025 242   Cal Poly W 68-55 67%     7 - 5 1 - 2 +6.0 -3.0 +10.3
  Jan 09, 2025 149   @ UC Riverside W 83-76 29%     8 - 5 2 - 2 +10.2 +7.4 +2.6
  Jan 11, 2025 342   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 95-86 75%     9 - 5 3 - 2 -0.5 +14.2 -15.2
  Jan 16, 2025 114   Cal St. Northridge L 60-83 39%     9 - 6 3 - 3 -22.7 -9.3 -14.5
  Jan 18, 2025 240   Cal St. Bakersfield W 81-70 66%     10 - 6 4 - 3 +4.1 +2.9 +1.2
  Jan 23, 2025 222   @ UC Davis L 66-68 43%     10 - 7 4 - 4 -2.7 +5.4 -8.3
  Jan 25, 2025 85   @ UC Irvine L 55-71 14%     10 - 8 4 - 5 -6.7 -10.3 +4.0
  Jan 30, 2025 54   UC San Diego L 63-74 16%     10 - 9 4 - 6 -3.0 -0.2 -3.8
  Feb 01, 2025 342   Cal St. Fullerton W 82-57 87%     11 - 9 5 - 6 +10.4 +2.6 +7.5
  Feb 06, 2025 242   @ Cal Poly L 63-79 47%     11 - 10 5 - 7 -17.9 -8.8 -9.8
  Feb 08, 2025 145   @ UC Santa Barbara L 72-76 28%     11 - 11 5 - 8 -0.5 -1.9 +1.5
  Feb 13, 2025 304   Long Beach St. W 62-60 79%     12 - 11 6 - 8 -8.9 -8.1 -0.5
  Feb 15, 2025 85   UC Irvine L 49-66 26%     12 - 12 6 - 9 -12.8 -13.7 -0.4
  Feb 22, 2025 54   @ UC San Diego L 60-76 6%    
  Feb 28, 2025 149   UC Riverside L 69-70 49%    
  Mar 02, 2025 222   UC Davis W 66-63 63%    
  Mar 06, 2025 240   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 69-70 46%    
  Mar 08, 2025 114   @ Cal St. Northridge L 70-78 21%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.3 0.8 0.1 1.1 5th
6th 7.7 3.4 0.1 11.1 6th
7th 6.9 28.5 12.8 0.8 48.9 7th
8th 4.0 18.4 8.4 0.1 31.0 8th
9th 4.7 3.1 0.1 7.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 8.7 28.4 36.9 20.8 4.9 0.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.2% 0.2
10-10 4.9% 0.6% 0.6% 13.7 0.0 0.0 4.9
9-11 20.8% 0.7% 0.7% 14.7 0.0 0.1 20.7
8-12 36.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 36.8
7-13 28.4% 0.1% 0.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 28.4
6-14 8.7% 8.7
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 8.3%