Hawaii
Big West
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#174
Expected Predictive Rating+5.7#99
Pace65.3#294
Improvement-0.6#253

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#197
First Shot+0.7#152
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#264
Layup/Dunks+2.9#86
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#193
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#329
Freethrows+4.1#23
Improvement-0.8#300

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#171
First Shot-0.2#184
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#174
Layups/Dunks-5.3#331
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#186
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#36
Freethrows-0.5#210
Improvement+0.2#152
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.7% 10.7% 5.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 12.4 13.2
.500 or above 65.6% 86.8% 63.9%
.500 or above in Conference 60.6% 75.8% 59.4%
Conference Champion 5.0% 9.1% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 5.5% 2.0% 5.7%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round5.7% 10.6% 5.3%
Second Round0.6% 1.7% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina (Home) - 7.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 34 - 55 - 10
Quad 411 - 316 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 251   San Jose St. W 80-69 74%     1 - 0 +3.4 +11.9 -7.3
  Nov 11, 2024 291   Pacific W 76-66 80%     2 - 0 +0.2 +0.6 -0.3
  Nov 17, 2024 225   Weber St. W 73-68 OT 70%     3 - 0 -1.1 -3.5 +2.4
  Nov 23, 2024 7   North Carolina L 69-84 7%    
  Dec 03, 2024 89   @ Grand Canyon L 66-76 19%    
  Dec 07, 2024 259   @ Long Beach St. W 70-69 55%    
  Dec 15, 2024 212   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 77-72 66%    
  Dec 22, 2024 142   Charlotte W 65-64 53%    
  Jan 03, 2025 119   UC Santa Barbara L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 05, 2025 294   Cal Poly W 77-68 80%    
  Jan 09, 2025 198   @ UC Riverside L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 11, 2025 270   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 17, 2025 194   Cal St. Northridge W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 19, 2025 239   Cal St. Bakersfield W 70-64 70%    
  Jan 23, 2025 169   @ UC Davis L 69-72 39%    
  Jan 25, 2025 57   @ UC Irvine L 61-74 13%    
  Jan 31, 2025 158   UC San Diego W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 02, 2025 270   Cal St. Fullerton W 71-63 75%    
  Feb 06, 2025 294   @ Cal Poly W 74-71 61%    
  Feb 08, 2025 119   @ UC Santa Barbara L 67-74 27%    
  Feb 14, 2025 259   Long Beach St. W 73-66 73%    
  Feb 16, 2025 57   UC Irvine L 64-71 28%    
  Feb 22, 2025 158   @ UC San Diego L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 28, 2025 198   UC Riverside W 72-68 63%    
  Mar 02, 2025 169   UC Davis W 72-69 59%    
  Mar 06, 2025 239   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 67-68 50%    
  Mar 08, 2025 194   @ Cal St. Northridge L 72-74 43%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 2.3 3.5 2.9 1.7 0.5 0.1 11.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 3.8 4.6 2.9 0.8 0.1 13.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 4.6 4.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 4.7 4.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 12.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.5 4.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.0 3.6 1.0 0.1 9.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.1 3.1 0.8 0.1 8.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.4 2.3 0.7 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 5.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.4 5.3 7.1 9.2 10.6 11.4 11.5 10.7 9.2 7.2 4.8 3.2 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 92.9% 0.7    0.6 0.1
17-3 69.0% 1.1    0.8 0.3 0.0
16-4 44.0% 1.4    0.8 0.6 0.1
15-5 21.5% 1.0    0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 2.8 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 43.4% 39.8% 3.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.0%
18-2 0.7% 38.9% 38.6% 0.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.6%
17-3 1.6% 30.1% 30.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1
16-4 3.2% 25.0% 25.0% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.4
15-5 4.8% 18.9% 18.9% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.9
14-6 7.2% 13.9% 13.9% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.2
13-7 9.2% 9.7% 9.7% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 8.3
12-8 10.7% 5.2% 5.2% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.1
11-9 11.5% 3.0% 3.0% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 11.2
10-10 11.4% 1.4% 1.4% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.3
9-11 10.6% 0.8% 0.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.6
8-12 9.2% 0.3% 0.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 9.2
7-13 7.1% 0.2% 0.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 7.1
6-14 5.3% 5.3
5-15 3.4% 3.4
4-16 2.1% 2.1
3-17 1.1% 1.1
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 94.3 0.0%