Hawaii
Big West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.3#108
Expected Predictive Rating+1.9#151
Pace75.8#41
Improvement+0.8#118

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#196
First Shot-2.3#238
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#119
Layup/Dunks+3.0#82
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#344
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#327
Freethrows+3.7#25
Improvement+1.8#48

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#44
First Shot+4.5#49
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#125
Layups/Dunks-2.8#283
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#260
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.8#8
Freethrows+0.5#153
Improvement-1.0#280
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.0% 28.6% 20.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.8 13.3
.500 or above 98.9% 99.2% 95.1%
.500 or above in Conference 97.0% 97.8% 88.0%
Conference Champion 37.3% 38.8% 19.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round28.0% 28.6% 20.9%
Second Round3.9% 4.0% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Fullerton (Home) - 92.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 35 - 36 - 6
Quad 416 - 222 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 80 @Oregon L 59-60 28%     0 - 1 +9.2 -13.5 +22.8
  Sun, Nov 9 300 East Texas A&M W 100-74 91%     1 - 1 +15.2 +14.5 -1.8
  Wed, Nov 12 365 Mississippi Valley W 88-56 99%     2 - 1 +6.9 +9.5 -0.9
  Fri, Nov 14 310 Manhattan W 86-56 92%     3 - 1 +18.8 +1.3 +16.5
  Sat, Nov 15 254 Utah Tech W 68-62 88%     4 - 1 -2.3 -8.5 +6.1
  Thu, Nov 20 82 Arizona St. L 76-83 51%     4 - 2 -3.0 -2.2 -0.2
  Fri, Nov 28 340 North Dakota W 92-55 95%     5 - 2 +22.9 +4.7 +14.6
  Thu, Dec 4 168 UC Davis W 75-69 78%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +2.1 +0.6 +1.4
  Sun, Dec 7 303 Cal St. Fullerton W 89-74 92%    
  Sun, Dec 14 241 UTEP W 74-62 86%    
  Thu, Jan 1 271 @UC Riverside W 76-69 75%    
  Sat, Jan 3 102 @UC San Diego L 72-76 37%    
  Sun, Jan 11 125 UC Irvine W 71-67 66%    
  Thu, Jan 15 243 @Cal Poly W 85-79 70%    
  Sat, Jan 17 148 @UC Santa Barbara W 74-73 53%    
  Fri, Jan 23 280 Cal St. Bakersfield W 80-66 89%    
  Sun, Jan 25 253 Cal St. Northridge W 85-72 87%    
  Thu, Jan 29 125 @UC Irvine L 68-70 44%    
  Sat, Jan 31 286 @Long Beach St. W 76-68 76%    
  Sun, Feb 8 102 UC San Diego W 75-73 59%    
  Thu, Feb 12 280 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 77-69 75%    
  Sat, Feb 14 253 @Cal St. Northridge W 82-75 72%    
  Fri, Feb 20 243 Cal Poly W 88-76 85%    
  Sun, Feb 22 148 UC Santa Barbara W 77-70 72%    
  Thu, Feb 26 168 @UC Davis W 72-70 58%    
  Sat, Feb 28 303 @Cal St. Fullerton W 86-77 78%    
  Fri, Mar 6 271 UC Riverside W 79-66 88%    
  Sun, Mar 8 286 Long Beach St. W 79-65 90%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.6 8.5 10.4 7.7 3.7 0.9 37.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.4 6.1 8.2 6.2 2.0 0.3 25.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.3 5.7 2.7 0.4 0.0 17.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.6 2.8 0.9 0.1 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 5.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.9 5.3 8.2 11.0 14.0 15.5 15.1 12.4 8.0 3.7 0.9 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
19-1 100.0% 3.7    3.6 0.1
18-2 96.6% 7.7    7.0 0.7
17-3 83.7% 10.4    7.8 2.4 0.1
16-4 56.3% 8.5    5.0 3.0 0.5 0.0
15-5 29.8% 4.6    1.7 1.9 0.9 0.1
14-6 9.5% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1
13-7 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 37.3% 37.3 26.4 8.8 1.9 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.9% 55.0% 53.5% 1.4% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 3.1%
19-1 3.7% 55.5% 55.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.2 1.6
18-2 8.0% 48.9% 48.9% 12.2 0.5 2.5 0.8 0.1 4.1
17-3 12.4% 44.2% 44.2% 12.6 0.2 2.3 2.7 0.3 0.0 6.9
16-4 15.1% 35.8% 35.8% 12.9 0.0 1.6 2.8 0.9 0.1 9.7
15-5 15.5% 29.5% 29.5% 13.2 0.0 0.8 2.2 1.5 0.1 10.9
14-6 14.0% 22.1% 22.1% 13.5 0.2 1.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 10.9
13-7 11.0% 14.3% 14.3% 13.8 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 9.5
12-8 8.2% 10.6% 10.6% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 7.3
11-9 5.3% 7.2% 7.2% 14.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 4.9
10-10 2.9% 3.2% 3.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.8
9-11 1.7% 4.2% 4.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.6
8-12 0.8% 2.5% 2.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.8
7-13 0.3% 0.3
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 28.0% 28.0% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.7 8.5 10.7 5.8 1.1 0.1 72.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 10.0 1.4 1.4 5.4 3.4 8.1 9.5 9.5 48.0 13.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 3.2% 11.0 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 3.5% 10.0 3.5