Arkansas
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +18.0 19
Expected Predictive Rating +18.5 19
Pace 75.7 28
Improvement +2.4 84

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A #7 A A- A B- C+
Defense B #39 A- D+ C+ A- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 52 70% 6 +8.0 8
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 178 40% 102 +0.5 147
Three Pointers 36% 292 39% 16 +0.1 173
1st FG Attempt 1.19 13 +8.6 13
Second Chance 34.7% 67 1.26 6 0.44 18
Turnovers 12.3% 6
Freethrows 0.32 125 75% 108 0.24 112
Total Offense +12.0 7

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 182 54% 69 +1.6 122
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 117 34% 56 +0.2 168
Three Pointers 39% 245 27% 4 +4.9 17
1st FG Attempt 0.88 18 +6.7 18
Second Chance 28.4% 96 1.24 362 0.35 279
Turnovers 18.0% 110
Freethrows 0.24 24 68% 15 0.16 16
Total Defense +6.0 39

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.4 141 -0.2 135
Shot Type Accuracy +8.0 10 -6.4 11
Possession Length 14.7 9 18.4 328
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.33 2 0.14 82
Improvement +1.9 #86 +0.5 #157

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 1% 1% 0%
Top 2 Seed 5% 6% 2%
Top 4 Seed 39% 45% 25%
Top 6 Seed 84% 89% 72%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 99%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 99%
Average Seed 5.0 4.7 5.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 17% 20% 7%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 99%
Second Round85% 86% 80%
Sweet Sixteen44% 47% 37%
Elite Eight18% 19% 14%
Final Four8% 8% 5%
Championship Game3% 3% 2%
National Champion1% 1% 1%

Next Game: Auburn (Home) - 70.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 9
Quad 26 - 114 - 10
Quad 33 - 018 - 10
Quad 46 - 024 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 264 Southern W 109 - 77 99% +21  96% 1 - 0 A+ +23 A+ +15 B- B- A+ B- +4 B- F+ D
 Sat, Nov 8 10 @Michigan St. L 66 - 69 32% -2  25% 1 - 1 A +20 B +6 C A+ D- A+ +14 A+ C- B+
 Tue, Nov 11 190 Central Arkansas W 93 - 56 97% +16  98% 2 - 1 A+ +32 A- +10 A- C- A+ A+ +20 A+ D+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 194 Samford W 79 - 75 97% +8  97% 3 - 1 C -1 D+ -3 C F+ C+ C+ +2 B- C- D
 Tue, Nov 18 130 Winthrop W 84 - 83 95% +1  50% 4 - 1 C -0 B +6 C+ A A- D -6 D+ F C-
 Fri, Nov 21 343 Jackson St. W 115 - 61 99% +30  90% 5 - 1 A+ +39 A+ +22 A+ A- A+ A +13 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 27 3 Duke L 71 - 80 29% -1  45% 5 - 2 A- +15 B+ +8 B+ A- B+ B+ +7 A+ F C+
 Wed, Dec 3 11 Louisville W 89 - 80 56% +10  99% 6 - 2 A+ +26 A +13 D+ A+ A A +11 A+ A D-
 Sat, Dec 6 140 Fresno St. W 82 - 58 96% +15  95% 7 - 2 A +22 B- +5 A D+ A+ A+ +16 A+ B- A
 Sat, Dec 13 16 Texas Tech W 93 - 86 49% -2  17% 8 - 2 A+ +25 A+ +31 A+ A+ A+ D+ -5 B- F F+
 Tue, Dec 16 218 Queens W 108 - 80 98% +20  90% 9 - 2 A +22 A +11 A A+ D- B+ +7 A- D- A
 Sat, Dec 20 5 Houston L 85 - 94 33% -10  3% 9 - 3 B+ +14 A+ +17 A+ A+ A+ C- -2 D F+ C+
 Mon, Dec 29 222 James Madison W 103 - 74 98% +17  89% 10 - 3 A+ +23 A+ +23 A+ A+ A- C -0 D+ D+ B
 Sat, Jan 3 18 Tennessee W 86 - 75 61% +1  51% 11 - 3 1 - 0 A+ +26 A +13 B- A C- A +12 A- B+ C+
 Wed, Jan 7 65 @Mississippi W 94 - 87 74% +7  94% 12 - 3 2 - 0 A +18 A+ +22 A+ A- B+ D+ -4 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 28 @Auburn L 73 - 95 49% -15  5% 12 - 4 2 - 1 C- -4 C +1 C+ D+ A- D+ -5 F+ F C
 Wed, Jan 14 90 South Carolina W 108 - 74 92% +18  95% 13 - 4 3 - 1 A+ +36 A+ +30 A+ A+ A+ B +6 B C- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 36 @Georgia L 76 - 90 53% -10  0% 13 - 5 3 - 2 C+ +3 D+ -4 D A+ D+ A- +10 B- C- A+
 Tue, Jan 20 14 Vanderbilt W 93 - 68 59% +15  96% 14 - 5 4 - 2 A+ +41 A+ +27 A+ A+ A+ A+ +14 A+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 24 57 LSU W 85 - 81 85% -1  27% 15 - 5 5 - 2 B +11 A +13 A+ C A C- -2 A+ F D
 Tue, Jan 27 54 @Oklahoma W 83 - 79 68% -2  29% 16 - 5 6 - 2 A- +17 A +12 B A A+ B +5 B C- A-
 Sat, Jan 31 24 Kentucky L 77 - 85 68% -5  10% 16 - 6 6 - 3 B- +5 A +11 A+ C A+ D -6 F+ B F+
 Sat, Feb 7 79 @Mississippi St. W 88 - 68 77% +12  88% 17 - 6 7 - 3 A+ +30 A+ +19 A+ B A- A +11 B+ B+ C
 Tue, Feb 10 57 @LSU W 91 - 62 69% +18  99% 18 - 6 8 - 3 A+ +42 A+ +15 A B B+ A+ +25 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 14 28 Auburn W 88 - 82 70%
 Tue, Feb 17 17 @Alabama L 92 - 95 39%
 Wed, Feb 18 17 @Alabama L 92 - 95 38%
 Sat, Feb 21 48 Missouri W 87 - 77 83%
 Wed, Feb 25 31 Texas A&M W 90 - 84 73%
 Sat, Feb 28 4 @Florida L 79 - 87 22%
 Wed, Mar 4 30 Texas W 88 - 82 72%
 Sat, Mar 7 48 @Missouri W 84 - 80 65%
Totals 23 - 9 13 - 6 +18 A +12 A A- A B +6 A- D+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A A C+ A- A 44% 21% 36% C+ A B A A- A C+ B- B- B B- B A A- 39% 22% 39% C+ A- B- F D+ C+ B+ A- A-
1.26 70% 40% 39% +8 0 1.19 35% 1.3 .44 12% .32 75% .24 1.00 54% 34% 27% -6 0 0.88 28% 1.2 .35 18% .24 68% .22
Nov
3		 Southern A+ A+ D+ D B- 40% 23% 37% C B- B- C+ B- A+ B- A+ A B- B- A+ F B- 26% 33% 41% A- B- B- F F+ D D+ A+ A-
1.34 79% 36% 32% +7 0 1.15 36% 1.1 .41 11% .40 86% .35 0.95 53% 11% 42% -5 -2 0.86 28% 1.4 .40 15% .35 46% .16
Nov
8		 Michigan St. B A F F C 30% 17% 52% B- C A+ A A+ D- A+ F+ A+ A+ C- A- A+ A+ 48% 28% 24% C- A+ F B+ C- B+ F B+ F+
0.97 64% 25% 25% -7 0 0.87 33% 0.9 .31 21% .42 65% .28 1.01 64% 31% 0% -12 0 0.78 49% 0.9 .46 21% .48 69% .33
Nov
11		 Central Arkansas A- A+ D B+ A 29% 16% 55% D+ A- D B C- A+ B A+ A A+ C+ B+ A+ A+ 21% 12% 67% B- A+ A F D+ F D C+ D+
1.25 81% 33% 39% +10 0 1.21 24% 1.3 .30 11% .33 82% .27 0.75 58% 29% 8% -27 0 0.47 20% 1.6 .31 11% .32 67% .21
Nov
14		 Samford D+ D+ B A- B- 31% 41% 28% F+ C D+ F F+ C+ B+ B- B+ C+ B B C+ B- 39% 20% 41% D+ B- C D C- D A+ F A+
1.10 53% 45% 40% +4 -3 1.04 24% 0.8 .19 12% .35 77% .27 1.04 54% 33% 32% -4 0 0.95 24% 1.1 .26 11% .16 90% .14
Nov
18		 Winthrop B A+ F B- B- 37% 31% 33% D- C+ D A+ A A- B- A+ A D D A+ F D 31% 19% 51% B+ D+ A+ F F C- A+ A A+
1.18 79% 19% 35% +2 -1 1.04 24% 2.0 .48 13% .35 91% .32 1.17 61% 0% 43% +1 0 1.03 24% 2.3 .53 14% .10 67% .07
Nov
21		 Jackson St. A+ A+ F A+ A+ 54% 15% 31% B A+ C+ A+ A- A+ A+ A- A+ A A+ B- A+ A+ 25% 33% 42% B+ A+ D F F A+ A- B A-
1.51 79% 25% 53% +19 +2 1.43 38% 1.3 .50 8% .51 78% .40 0.80 31% 35% 23% -15 -3 0.67 29% 1.6 .46 26% .20 73% .14
Nov
27		 Duke B+ B D+ C+ B+ 28% 22% 50% C B+ B+ A+ A- B+ C- A+ C+ B+ A F A+ A+ 42% 19% 40% A A+ C+ F F C+ C- A- C+
1.01 60% 33% 33% -1 -1 0.98 29% 1.0 .29 17% .19 82% .15 1.14 50% 56% 26% -5 0 0.94 39% 2.1 .81 17% .36 67% .24
Dec
3		 Louisville A F+ B F D+ 37% 33% 30% C- D+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ A- A+ A C D- A+ A+ 42% 7% 51% C- A+ B+ A+ A D- B+ C B
1.18 45% 39% 25% -8 -2 0.81 43% 1.5 .64 13% .53 77% .41 1.06 64% 50% 23% -5 +2 0.97 30% 0.8 .23 12% .27 78% .21
Dec
6		 Fresno St. B- A D+ A+ A+ 26% 26% 48% D- A D+ D+ D+ A+ C F D+ A+ A- B- A+ A+ 42% 12% 46% D- A+ C B+ B- A A- C- B+
1.12 73% 33% 39% +7 -2 1.12 26% 1.0 .26 11% .26 65% .17 0.79 50% 33% 17% -16 +1 0.73 29% 0.8 .24 23% .23 77% .18
Dec
13		 Texas Tech A+ C C A+ A+ 52% 16% 32% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C- A+ D+ C- A+ D+ B+ 47% 9% 45% F B- C- F F F+ A+ A+ A+
1.40 58% 38% 50% +7 +2 1.20 46% 1.3 .57 11% .44 65% .29 1.29 63% 20% 38% +4 +2 1.14 37% 1.3 .47 11% .17 30% .05
Dec
16		 Queens A B A+ A+ A- 47% 7% 45% A- A C+ A+ A+ D- B+ A A B+ D+ F A+ B+ 31% 30% 39% A+ A- F B- D- A D+ B+ C
1.36 65% 50% 44% +11 +2 1.29 36% 1.9 .68 18% .41 81% .34 1.00 65% 50% 19% -3 -2 0.93 41% 1.0 .41 21% .32 70% .22
Dec
20		 Houston A+ B+ B- A A+ 40% 23% 38% B- A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ C- D+ A- F D+ 33% 23% 44% F+ D A F F+ C+ F B- F
1.16 63% 36% 39% +4 0 1.10 34% 1.3 .43 16% .57 60% .34 1.28 68% 31% 44% +8 -1 1.18 31% 1.6 .50 12% .39 76% .30
Dec
29		 James Madison A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ 34% 17% 49% C- A+ A A+ A+ A- A+ F A- C D+ F+ C D+ 27% 14% 59% B- D+ D C D+ B D D D-
1.47 72% 33% 50% +16 0 1.34 40% 1.4 .57 9% .49 65% .31 1.06 62% 43% 34% +2 0 1.06 32% 1.1 .35 20% .34 74% .25
Jan
3		 Tennessee A A F C+ B+ 29% 31% 40% F+ B- A B+ A C- A+ A+ A+ A A+ C- F A 56% 20% 24% D A- A+ F B+ C+ C A+ A
1.15 67% 25% 33% -2 -2 0.94 35% 1.1 .38 19% .54 88% .48 1.00 46% 40% 42% -3 +1 0.98 31% 1.3 .40 19% .38 52% .20
Jan
7		 Mississippi A+ A+ A A+ A+ 20% 35% 45% F A+ A+ D+ A- B+ A+ B A+ D+ F F C- F 21% 36% 43% B- F B+ A+ A+ C+ D+ F+ D-
1.30 80% 47% 41% +12 -3 1.20 42% 1.0 .42 15% .49 73% .36 1.21 91% 53% 35% +13 -3 1.21 26% 0.8 .19 14% .34 81% .27
Jan
10		 Auburn C C F A C+ 35% 27% 38% D+ C+ D- B D+ A- B+ D+ B D+ D A+ F D- 53% 11% 36% D- F+ A+ F F C C+ B B-
1.02 56% 29% 40% 0 -1 1.00 22% 1.1 .25 15% .35 71% .25 1.33 68% 17% 47% +10 +2 1.26 31% 2.0 .62 14% .39 71% .28
Jan
14		 South Carolina A+ A+ A+ A A+ 52% 17% 31% A A+ A- A A+ A+ D+ A+ C+ B D+ D+ A B 33% 17% 50% C B D- B C- A+ A C+ A
1.48 73% 55% 40% +13 +1 1.31 38% 1.2 .44 5% .25 82% .20 1.02 65% 44% 27% -2 0 0.98 35% 0.9 .32 22% .25 79% .19
Jan
17		 Georgia D+ D F F D- 51% 18% 31% B+ D B+ A+ A+ D+ C A+ B A- B F C B 43% 10% 47% D+ B- A+ F C- A+ A F B+
0.91 48% 27% 26% -10 +1 0.84 38% 1.3 .48 22% .25 81% .20 1.08 56% 50% 33% 0 +2 1.05 25% 1.7 .42 20% .24 88% .21
Jan
20		 Vanderbilt A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 46% 25% 30% B A+ A A A+ A+ F A F A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 24% 25% 51% A+ A+ A+ F F B- C B+ C+
1.38 81% 36% 41% +13 0 1.28 36% 1.2 .43 10% .20 83% .17 1.01 67% 15% 19% -15 -2 0.69 24% 2.2 .53 15% .33 74% .24
Jan
24		 LSU A A+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 24% 38% C A+ D+ B C A C F F C- C+ D+ A+ A 33% 40% 27% A+ A+ D F F D D- F F
1.24 79% 67% 42% +20 0 1.40 26% 1.0 .26 12% .30 39% .12 1.18 59% 43% 21% -3 -3 0.90 39% 1.5 .61 13% .42 88% .37
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Oklahoma A A+ A+ F B- 50% 21% 29% A- B D- A+ A A+ F A+ D B A F C+ A- 46% 11% 43% F+ B B- F+ C- A- A F B
1.20 76% 50% 12% +2 +1 1.07 23% 1.9 .43 9% .21 85% .17 1.15 46% 67% 33% -3 +2 1.00 31% 1.5 .46 17% .21 92% .19
Jan
31		 Kentucky A A- A+ F A+ 51% 25% 24% B+ A+ C C- C A+ A+ F B+ D F C+ F F 43% 30% 28% A- F+ C- A B F+ F A+ F
1.15 65% 54% 25% +5 0 1.12 26% 0.8 .21 6% .41 62% .25 1.27 75% 36% 46% +12 -1 1.23 37% 1.0 .37 10% .50 63% .32
Feb
7		 Mississippi St. A+ A B A+ A+ 41% 26% 33% B A+ B+ C B A- F+ F+ F+ A C+ F A+ A- 49% 25% 25% D+ B+ A C B+ C B+ B+ B+
1.25 68% 44% 40% +9 -1 1.18 31% 1.0 .31 10% .19 67% .13 0.97 59% 50% 14% -4 0 0.95 25% 1.0 .25 16% .24 64% .15
Feb
10		 LSU A+ A D+ F B+ 64% 16% 20% A+ A D+ A+ B B+ A- A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 50% 15% 35% D- A+ F A+ A+ B+ F A+ C
1.22 69% 33% 27% +4 +2 1.15 27% 1.3 .33 13% .37 75% .28 0.83 46% 25% 11% -20 +2 0.65 43% 0.6 .27 19% .45 63% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.8 7.3 6.3 1.0 16.5 1st
2nd 0.0 2.9 17.6 10.9 1.0 32.4 2nd
3rd 0.4 10.7 7.9 0.1 19.1 3rd
4th 0.0 3.2 9.3 0.6 13.1 4th
5th 0.3 6.0 1.9 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 1.2 3.8 0.1 5.0 6th
7th 0.1 2.2 0.6 0.0 2.8 7th
8th 0.2 1.4 0.0 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.1 1.1 5.3 14.0 24.9 27.9 18.3 7.3 1.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 1.0    1.0
15-3 86.3% 6.3    3.8 2.6
14-4 40.0% 7.3    1.5 4.4 1.3 0.1
13-5 6.5% 1.8    0.0 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.5% 16.5 6.3 7.4 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 1.0% 100.0% 25.2% 74.8% 2.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 100.0%
15-3 7.3% 100.0% 17.5% 82.5% 3.0 0.3 1.8 3.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 18.3% 100.0% 15.6% 84.4% 3.8 0.1 1.5 5.5 6.5 3.8 0.9 0.1 100.0%
13-5 27.9% 100.0% 11.3% 88.7% 4.7 0.0 0.3 3.6 8.0 9.7 5.2 1.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 24.9% 99.9% 10.0% 89.9% 5.4 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.7 8.5 7.9 3.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 14.0% 99.9% 5.0% 94.9% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.7 4.6 4.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 5.3% 98.9% 2.8% 96.0% 7.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.9 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 98.8%
9-9 1.1% 92.1% 0.9% 91.2% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 92.0%
8-10 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.8% 10.9% 88.8% 5.0 0.3 99.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.3 65.4 34.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 2.3 16.7 41.7 41.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 2.6 14.3 28.6 42.9 14.3