Arkansas
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.1#46
Expected Predictive Rating+9.5#61
Pace72.7#77
Improvement-2.5#296

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#64
First Shot+4.8#59
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#207
Layup/Dunks+4.8#31
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#141
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#198
Freethrows+0.1#163
Improvement-0.2#191

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#31
First Shot+3.5#74
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#6
Layups/Dunks-1.2#218
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#31
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#204
Freethrows+2.7#26
Improvement-2.4#302
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.3% 3.6% 0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.6% 35.4% 15.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 26.4% 35.1% 15.6%
Average Seed 9.2 9.1 9.7
.500 or above 70.2% 81.5% 56.2%
.500 or above in Conference 7.1% 11.2% 2.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 16.8% 10.7% 24.5%
First Four8.5% 10.2% 6.4%
First Round22.6% 30.6% 12.5%
Second Round10.9% 15.5% 5.2%
Sweet Sixteen2.8% 4.1% 1.2%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.5% 0.5%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia (Home) - 55.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 92 - 9
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 13
Quad 23 - 27 - 15
Quad 33 - 010 - 15
Quad 47 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 92   Lipscomb W 76-60 77%     1 - 0 +19.4 +0.3 +18.2
  Nov 09, 2024 22   Baylor L 67-72 34%     1 - 1 +10.2 +5.0 +4.8
  Nov 13, 2024 117   Troy W 65-49 85%     2 - 1 +16.0 -5.8 +22.2
  Nov 18, 2024 302   Pacific W 91-72 97%     3 - 1 +8.4 +5.1 +2.0
  Nov 22, 2024 238   Arkansas Little Rock W 79-67 94%     4 - 1 +4.9 -0.6 +4.5
  Nov 25, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 109-35 99%     5 - 1 +55.9 +18.7 +31.5
  Nov 28, 2024 9   Illinois L 77-90 23%     5 - 2 +5.7 +11.3 -5.1
  Dec 03, 2024 155   @ Miami (FL) W 76-73 77%     6 - 2 +6.3 +2.3 +4.1
  Dec 07, 2024 229   Texas San Antonio W 75-60 94%     7 - 2 +8.4 -0.4 +9.5
  Dec 10, 2024 11   Michigan W 89-87 28%     8 - 2 +19.3 +14.5 +4.5
  Dec 14, 2024 338   Central Arkansas W 82-57 98%     9 - 2 +10.8 +9.4 +3.4
  Dec 21, 2024 322   N.C. A&T W 95-67 97%     10 - 2 +15.9 +10.0 +4.3
  Dec 30, 2024 182   Oakland W 92-62 91%     11 - 2 +26.4 +15.6 +10.3
  Jan 04, 2025 8   @ Tennessee L 52-76 17%     11 - 3 0 - 1 -2.5 -4.8 +0.5
  Jan 08, 2025 19   Mississippi L 66-73 43%     11 - 4 0 - 2 +5.9 +4.8 +0.5
  Jan 11, 2025 5   Florida L 63-71 26%     11 - 5 0 - 3 +9.7 -1.4 +10.9
  Jan 14, 2025 64   @ LSU L 74-78 49%     11 - 6 0 - 4 +7.3 +6.8 +0.5
  Jan 18, 2025 29   @ Missouri L 65-83 32%     11 - 7 0 - 5 -2.0 -2.1 +0.1
  Jan 22, 2025 34   Georgia W 71-70 56%    
  Jan 25, 2025 45   Oklahoma W 77-74 61%    
  Feb 01, 2025 15   @ Kentucky L 79-87 22%    
  Feb 05, 2025 38   @ Texas L 71-75 35%    
  Feb 08, 2025 7   Alabama L 81-87 31%    
  Feb 12, 2025 64   LSU W 77-72 69%    
  Feb 15, 2025 21   @ Texas A&M L 68-75 25%    
  Feb 19, 2025 2   @ Auburn L 71-86 8%    
  Feb 22, 2025 29   Missouri W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 26, 2025 38   Texas W 74-72 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 82   @ South Carolina W 71-69 54%    
  Mar 04, 2025 49   @ Vanderbilt L 76-78 40%    
  Mar 08, 2025 23   Mississippi St. L 74-75 45%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 0.7 1.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 1.7 0.1 2.8 8th
9th 0.6 3.5 1.4 0.1 5.5 9th
10th 0.3 3.4 3.4 0.3 7.4 10th
11th 0.1 2.5 6.0 1.4 0.0 10.1 11th
12th 0.1 2.1 7.3 4.1 0.2 13.8 12th
13th 0.1 1.6 7.3 6.5 0.8 0.0 16.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 1.3 6.2 7.5 1.8 0.0 16.9 14th
15th 0.0 1.3 4.7 6.5 2.4 0.2 15.2 15th
16th 0.2 1.1 2.8 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 8.4 16th
Total 0.2 1.1 4.2 9.2 15.4 19.7 18.6 15.0 9.5 4.7 1.8 0.4 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 100.0% 2.3% 97.7% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
10-8 1.8% 100.0% 1.6% 98.4% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 100.0%
9-9 4.7% 97.7% 0.8% 96.8% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.1 97.7%
8-10 9.5% 85.1% 0.8% 84.2% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.4 2.6 1.0 0.0 1.4 84.9%
7-11 15.0% 51.0% 0.3% 50.7% 10.3 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.8 4.0 0.3 7.4 50.8%
6-12 18.6% 19.0% 0.2% 18.9% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.5 0.5 15.1 18.9%
5-13 19.7% 1.7% 0.2% 1.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 19.4 1.5%
4-14 15.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 15.4 0.1%
3-15 9.2% 9.2
2-16 4.2% 4.2
1-17 1.1% 1.1
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 26.6% 0.3% 26.4% 9.2 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.5 3.6 4.6 5.2 7.7 0.8 73.4 26.4%