Mississippi
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.6#26
Expected Predictive Rating+17.3#17
Pace67.2#231
Improvement+4.8#8

Offense
Total Offense+8.7#12
First Shot+8.1#18
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#147
Layup/Dunks+0.0#185
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#91
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#79
Freethrows+3.1#42
Improvement+3.7#9

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#53
First Shot+5.7#28
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#246
Layups/Dunks+6.7#19
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#266
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#169
Freethrows-0.5#229
Improvement+1.1#100
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.3% 2.4% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 7.6% 7.8% 2.5%
Top 4 Seed 30.0% 30.4% 15.3%
Top 6 Seed 52.7% 53.3% 34.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 82.8% 83.3% 66.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 82.3% 82.8% 65.9%
Average Seed 5.8 5.8 6.7
.500 or above 95.5% 95.8% 85.1%
.500 or above in Conference 55.1% 55.5% 40.3%
Conference Champion 2.5% 2.5% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 4.2% 4.1% 7.7%
First Four5.7% 5.7% 6.7%
First Round80.2% 80.7% 63.3%
Second Round56.7% 57.2% 40.7%
Sweet Sixteen27.1% 27.4% 16.3%
Elite Eight11.2% 11.4% 5.2%
Final Four4.5% 4.6% 1.9%
Championship Game1.8% 1.8% 0.7%
National Champion0.7% 0.7% 0.3%

Next Game: Southern (Home) - 97.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 84 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 38 - 10
Quad 24 - 112 - 12
Quad 31 - 013 - 12
Quad 48 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 337   LIU Brooklyn W 90-60 99%     1 - 0 +16.2 +7.8 +6.9
  Nov 08, 2024 287   Grambling St. W 66-64 97%     2 - 0 -7.7 -10.9 +3.2
  Nov 12, 2024 201   South Alabama W 64-54 95%     3 - 0 +5.2 -6.4 +12.3
  Nov 16, 2024 108   Colorado St. W 84-69 82%     4 - 0 +19.1 +24.7 -3.9
  Nov 21, 2024 293   Oral Roberts W 100-68 98%     5 - 0 +22.1 +15.6 +4.9
  Nov 28, 2024 44   BYU W 96-85 OT 60%     6 - 0 +22.0 +13.5 +6.9
  Nov 29, 2024 22   Purdue L 78-80 48%     6 - 1 +12.3 +18.6 -6.5
  Dec 03, 2024 50   @ Louisville W 86-63 52%     7 - 1 +36.2 +22.8 +14.4
  Dec 07, 2024 347   Lindenwood W 86-53 99%     8 - 1 +18.2 +11.6 +8.4
  Dec 14, 2024 282   Southern Miss W 77-46 96%     9 - 1 +24.6 +10.1 +17.5
  Dec 17, 2024 223   Southern W 81-61 97%    
  Dec 21, 2024 280   Queens W 89-66 98%    
  Dec 28, 2024 34   @ Memphis L 77-79 44%    
  Jan 04, 2025 40   Georgia W 75-70 68%    
  Jan 08, 2025 29   @ Arkansas L 75-77 42%    
  Jan 11, 2025 60   LSU W 79-71 76%    
  Jan 14, 2025 7   @ Alabama L 78-86 24%    
  Jan 18, 2025 28   @ Mississippi St. L 74-76 42%    
  Jan 22, 2025 24   Texas A&M W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 25, 2025 51   @ Missouri W 76-75 52%    
  Jan 29, 2025 33   Texas W 74-70 65%    
  Feb 01, 2025 1   Auburn L 75-81 29%    
  Feb 04, 2025 11   Kentucky L 81-82 48%    
  Feb 08, 2025 60   @ LSU W 76-74 56%    
  Feb 12, 2025 69   @ South Carolina W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 15, 2025 28   Mississippi St. W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 57   @ Vanderbilt W 78-77 54%    
  Feb 26, 2025 1   @ Auburn L 72-84 14%    
  Mar 01, 2025 37   Oklahoma W 76-71 66%    
  Mar 05, 2025 4   Tennessee L 68-71 39%    
  Mar 08, 2025 8   @ Florida L 75-82 26%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 2.8 1.8 0.4 0.0 6.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.4 2.9 0.6 0.0 7.7 4th
5th 0.3 3.1 4.2 0.9 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 5.1 1.9 0.1 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.6 3.4 0.4 0.0 9.1 7th
8th 0.1 2.8 4.9 0.9 0.0 8.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 4.9 2.3 0.1 8.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 3.3 3.9 0.4 0.0 7.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.5 4.1 1.3 0.0 7.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 3.1 2.3 0.2 0.0 6.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.7 0.6 0.0 5.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.1 1.0 0.0 4.3 14th
15th 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.9 0.1 3.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.9 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.1 5.6 8.8 11.5 13.9 14.3 13.5 11.1 7.6 4.5 2.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 92.6% 0.3    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-3 67.8% 0.7    0.4 0.2 0.1
14-4 34.2% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1
13-5 10.1% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 24.2% 75.8% 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.4% 100.0% 17.6% 82.4% 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.0% 100.0% 11.9% 88.1% 1.7 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.5% 100.0% 13.6% 86.4% 2.0 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 4.5% 100.0% 9.6% 90.4% 2.7 0.5 1.5 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 7.6% 100.0% 6.6% 93.4% 3.3 0.3 1.2 3.0 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 11.1% 100.0% 4.2% 95.8% 4.0 0.1 0.7 2.9 3.8 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 13.5% 99.9% 2.4% 97.6% 4.9 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.2 4.3 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-9 14.3% 99.5% 1.5% 98.0% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 3.5 4.0 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.5%
8-10 13.9% 96.6% 0.9% 95.6% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 2.8 3.0 2.4 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.5 96.6%
7-11 11.5% 81.4% 0.4% 81.1% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.4 2.2 0.1 2.1 81.4%
6-12 8.8% 48.0% 0.3% 47.7% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.2 0.3 0.0 4.6 47.9%
5-13 5.6% 12.9% 0.1% 12.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 4.9 12.8%
4-14 3.1% 0.8% 0.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.8%
3-15 1.4% 1.4
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 82.8% 2.7% 80.1% 5.8 2.3 5.3 10.5 11.9 12.3 10.5 7.8 6.2 5.4 4.8 5.3 0.6 0.0 17.2 82.3%