Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.4#57
Expected Predictive Rating+14.5#34
Pace74.5#57
Improvement+1.1#104

Offense
Total Offense+6.4#40
First Shot+4.3#64
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#70
Layup/Dunks+4.8#40
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#168
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#249
Freethrows+2.0#73
Improvement+0.6#131

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#94
First Shot+1.5#126
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#63
Layups/Dunks+0.4#159
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#125
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#215
Freethrows+0.9#122
Improvement+0.6#147
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.2% 2.2% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 8.0% 8.1% 2.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.7% 36.0% 15.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 35.5% 35.8% 15.7%
Average Seed 8.3 8.3 8.9
.500 or above 83.6% 83.9% 57.8%
.500 or above in Conference 17.2% 17.4% 6.6%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 21.5% 21.4% 32.5%
First Four6.9% 6.9% 3.9%
First Round32.1% 32.3% 13.2%
Second Round16.2% 16.3% 6.8%
Sweet Sixteen5.0% 5.1% 1.5%
Elite Eight1.6% 1.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: The Citadel (Home) - 98.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 92 - 9
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 11
Quad 24 - 28 - 13
Quad 33 - 011 - 14
Quad 47 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 358   Maryland Eastern Shore W 102-63 98%     1 - 0 +22.0 +17.8 +3.2
  Nov 10, 2024 297   Southeast Missouri St. W 85-76 96%     2 - 0 -1.2 +5.9 -7.5
  Nov 13, 2024 120   California W 85-69 82%     3 - 0 +15.7 +1.9 +12.5
  Nov 16, 2024 311   Jackson St. W 94-81 96%     4 - 0 +1.8 +13.8 -12.6
  Nov 21, 2024 54   Nevada W 73-71 48%     5 - 0 +11.9 +6.4 +5.6
  Nov 22, 2024 117   Seton Hall W 76-60 73%     6 - 0 +19.0 +13.5 +6.3
  Nov 24, 2024 70   Drake L 70-81 56%     6 - 1 -3.1 +1.7 -4.7
  Nov 29, 2024 332   Tennessee Tech W 87-56 97%     7 - 1 +17.7 +5.5 +11.7
  Dec 04, 2024 125   @ Virginia Tech W 80-64 66%     8 - 1 +21.2 +14.1 +7.9
  Dec 08, 2024 86   TCU W 83-74 62%     9 - 1 +15.3 +11.9 +2.9
  Dec 18, 2024 345   The Citadel W 85-61 99%    
  Dec 21, 2024 261   Austin Peay W 79-61 95%    
  Dec 30, 2024 346   New Orleans W 92-68 99%    
  Jan 04, 2025 60   @ LSU L 77-80 40%    
  Jan 07, 2025 28   Mississippi St. L 78-79 48%    
  Jan 11, 2025 51   @ Missouri L 77-81 37%    
  Jan 15, 2025 69   South Carolina W 76-71 66%    
  Jan 18, 2025 4   Tennessee L 69-77 24%    
  Jan 21, 2025 7   @ Alabama L 80-92 14%    
  Jan 25, 2025 11   Kentucky L 83-88 33%    
  Feb 01, 2025 37   @ Oklahoma L 74-80 31%    
  Feb 04, 2025 8   @ Florida L 76-88 15%    
  Feb 08, 2025 33   Texas W 76-75 50%    
  Feb 11, 2025 1   Auburn L 77-87 18%    
  Feb 15, 2025 4   @ Tennessee L 66-80 11%    
  Feb 19, 2025 11   @ Kentucky L 80-91 16%    
  Feb 22, 2025 26   Mississippi L 77-78 46%    
  Feb 26, 2025 24   @ Texas A&M L 71-78 25%    
  Mar 01, 2025 51   Missouri W 80-78 58%    
  Mar 04, 2025 29   Arkansas L 79-80 48%    
  Mar 08, 2025 40   @ Georgia L 74-79 32%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.7 4th
5th 0.2 1.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 1.8 0.4 0.0 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.1 2.3 2.6 0.3 0.0 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 3.9 1.2 0.0 6.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.7 3.3 0.3 7.7 10th
11th 0.1 2.3 5.1 1.1 0.0 8.7 11th
12th 0.0 1.2 5.3 3.0 0.2 9.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.7 4.5 5.0 0.8 0.0 11.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.7 3.7 6.0 1.9 0.1 12.2 14th
15th 0.1 0.8 3.6 5.4 2.8 0.3 12.8 15th
16th 0.3 1.7 3.8 4.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 12.9 16th
Total 0.3 1.7 4.6 8.7 12.0 15.0 15.2 13.9 11.3 7.7 4.8 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 82.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 44.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 12.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 100.0% 13.8% 86.2% 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.2% 100.0% 7.4% 92.6% 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.5% 100.0% 6.4% 93.6% 3.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 1.3% 100.0% 3.4% 96.6% 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 2.6% 99.8% 1.5% 98.4% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 4.8% 98.8% 1.2% 97.6% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.8%
9-9 7.7% 96.2% 0.7% 95.5% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.0 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.3 96.2%
8-10 11.3% 81.0% 0.4% 80.7% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.4 2.6 1.4 0.0 2.1 81.0%
7-11 13.9% 49.8% 0.1% 49.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.2 0.2 7.0 49.8%
6-12 15.2% 16.3% 0.1% 16.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 0.3 12.7 16.2%
5-13 15.0% 2.2% 0.0% 2.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 14.6 2.1%
4-14 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 12.0 0.0%
3-15 8.7% 8.7
2-16 4.6% 4.6
1-17 1.7% 1.7
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 35.7% 0.3% 35.4% 8.3 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 2.4 3.4 4.5 5.1 5.4 5.6 6.6 0.7 64.3 35.5%