Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.7#48
Expected Predictive Rating+14.4#29
Pace73.3#65
Improvement+2.0#88

Offense
Total Offense+6.3#45
First Shot+4.8#57
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#102
Layup/Dunks+4.7#33
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#257
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#162
Freethrows+0.9#122
Improvement-0.1#180

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#60
First Shot+3.2#81
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#79
Layups/Dunks+0.5#151
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#54
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#195
Freethrows+1.1#111
Improvement+2.1#71
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.8% 5.1% 1.3%
Top 6 Seed 11.0% 23.4% 9.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 56.3% 78.5% 52.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 56.1% 78.4% 52.6%
Average Seed 8.4 7.7 8.5
.500 or above 98.9% 100.0% 98.7%
.500 or above in Conference 23.9% 46.1% 20.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 0.6% 2.7%
First Four10.3% 7.8% 10.7%
First Round50.9% 74.3% 47.2%
Second Round24.2% 38.1% 22.0%
Sweet Sixteen6.5% 12.4% 5.6%
Elite Eight2.0% 3.5% 1.8%
Final Four0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
Championship Game0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 13.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 35 - 11
Quad 24 - 29 - 13
Quad 34 - 013 - 13
Quad 47 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 102-63 99%     1 - 0 +20.9 +17.5 +2.4
  Nov 10, 2024 269   Southeast Missouri St. W 85-76 96%     2 - 0 +0.1 +5.6 -5.9
  Nov 13, 2024 118   California W 85-69 84%     3 - 0 +16.0 +3.1 +11.6
  Nov 16, 2024 278   Jackson St. W 94-81 96%     4 - 0 +3.7 +15.8 -12.6
  Nov 21, 2024 68   Nevada W 73-71 60%     5 - 0 +10.1 +6.0 +4.2
  Nov 22, 2024 132   Seton Hall W 76-60 80%     6 - 0 +17.8 +9.7 +9.0
  Nov 24, 2024 80   Drake L 70-81 64%     6 - 1 -3.9 +0.4 -4.1
  Nov 29, 2024 317   Tennessee Tech W 87-56 97%     7 - 1 +19.3 +6.9 +11.8
  Dec 04, 2024 137   @ Virginia Tech W 80-64 73%     8 - 1 +20.4 +12.3 +8.8
  Dec 08, 2024 62   TCU W 83-74 58%     9 - 1 +17.7 +12.4 +4.8
  Dec 18, 2024 352   The Citadel W 105-53 98%     10 - 1 +36.3 +33.1 +6.8
  Dec 21, 2024 298   Austin Peay W 85-55 96%     11 - 1 +19.6 +6.5 +12.0
  Dec 30, 2024 343   New Orleans W 100-56 98%     12 - 1 +29.5 +9.0 +16.0
  Jan 04, 2025 63   @ LSU W 80-72 48%     13 - 1 1 - 0 +19.4 +15.8 +3.8
  Jan 07, 2025 23   Mississippi St. L 64-76 44%     13 - 2 1 - 1 +0.4 -2.0 +2.0
  Jan 11, 2025 29   @ Missouri L 66-75 30%     13 - 3 1 - 2 +7.1 +2.7 +3.9
  Jan 15, 2025 82   South Carolina W 66-63 74%     14 - 3 2 - 2 +7.1 -3.7 +10.8
  Jan 18, 2025 8   Tennessee W 76-75 31%     15 - 3 3 - 2 +17.0 +20.4 -3.3
  Jan 21, 2025 7   @ Alabama L 81-92 14%    
  Jan 25, 2025 15   Kentucky L 84-87 39%    
  Feb 01, 2025 45   @ Oklahoma L 76-79 37%    
  Feb 04, 2025 5   @ Florida L 74-86 11%    
  Feb 08, 2025 38   Texas W 76-75 56%    
  Feb 11, 2025 2   Auburn L 76-86 20%    
  Feb 15, 2025 8   @ Tennessee L 66-77 15%    
  Feb 19, 2025 15   @ Kentucky L 81-90 20%    
  Feb 22, 2025 19   Mississippi L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 26, 2025 21   @ Texas A&M L 70-77 24%    
  Mar 01, 2025 29   Missouri W 78-77 51%    
  Mar 04, 2025 46   Arkansas W 78-76 59%    
  Mar 08, 2025 34   @ Georgia L 71-76 32%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.3 1.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 1.2 0.1 2.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.3 0.6 3.6 6th
7th 0.2 2.6 2.1 0.1 5.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.9 4.7 0.9 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 5.5 3.4 0.1 9.9 9th
10th 0.3 4.9 6.6 1.0 12.8 10th
11th 0.2 3.3 9.5 3.2 0.2 16.3 11th
12th 0.1 1.9 8.3 5.4 0.3 15.9 12th
13th 0.8 5.1 5.2 0.9 0.0 12.1 13th
14th 0.2 2.1 4.0 1.3 0.1 7.7 14th
15th 0.7 1.7 1.0 0.0 3.4 15th
16th 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 16th
Total 1.1 5.0 12.2 18.4 21.7 17.7 12.7 6.8 3.1 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 60.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 7.7% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.3% 100.0% 100.0% 3.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 1.1% 100.0% 4.7% 95.3% 4.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 3.1% 100.0% 1.6% 98.4% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 6.8% 99.6% 1.0% 98.5% 6.4 0.1 0.2 1.1 2.2 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.6%
9-9 12.7% 98.1% 0.6% 97.5% 7.4 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.6 3.8 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.2 98.1%
8-10 17.7% 88.0% 0.3% 87.7% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.6 5.1 3.4 1.4 0.0 2.1 88.0%
7-11 21.7% 59.3% 0.1% 59.2% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.3 4.4 5.1 0.3 8.8 59.3%
6-12 18.4% 21.2% 21.2% 10.8 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.5 0.5 0.0 14.5 21.2%
5-13 12.2% 2.3% 0.1% 2.2% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 12.0 2.2%
4-14 5.0% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 5.0
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 56.3% 0.3% 55.9% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.3 5.9 7.6 9.1 9.7 9.0 9.2 0.8 0.0 43.7 56.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%