Preseason Rankings
Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.5#41
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.3#67
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.7#30
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#54
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.1% 1.2% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 3.2% 3.3% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 10.5% 11.0% 2.2%
Top 6 Seed 21.1% 21.9% 6.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 47.1% 48.4% 22.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 45.8% 47.1% 22.3%
Average Seed 6.8 6.7 7.8
.500 or above 69.8% 71.4% 39.9%
.500 or above in Conference 39.2% 40.2% 20.5%
Conference Champion 2.6% 2.7% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.0% 10.4% 21.1%
First Four5.1% 5.3% 3.1%
First Round44.7% 46.0% 21.1%
Second Round29.8% 30.6% 13.3%
Sweet Sixteen12.2% 12.6% 4.0%
Elite Eight5.0% 5.2% 1.0%
Final Four1.8% 1.9% 0.3%
Championship Game0.7% 0.8% 0.1%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Home) - 94.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 10
Quad 24 - 29 - 13
Quad 32 - 012 - 13
Quad 46 - 017 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 188   Lipscomb W 81-64 95%    
  Nov 08, 2025 74   @ Central Florida W 81-79 56%    
  Nov 12, 2025 174   Eastern Kentucky W 85-68 93%    
  Nov 15, 2025 364   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 99-61 100.0%   
  Nov 20, 2025 285   Texas Southern W 86-64 98%    
  Nov 26, 2025 156   Western Kentucky W 86-73 87%    
  Dec 03, 2025 44   SMU W 79-76 62%    
  Dec 13, 2025 358   Central Arkansas W 89-59 99.5%   
  Dec 17, 2025 53   @ Memphis L 78-79 47%    
  Dec 21, 2025 67   @ Wake Forest W 74-73 53%    
  Dec 29, 2025 363   New Haven W 90-57 99.7%   
  Jan 03, 2026 70   @ South Carolina W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 06, 2026 18   Alabama L 85-86 46%    
  Jan 10, 2026 52   LSU W 78-73 67%    
  Jan 14, 2026 36   @ Texas L 73-77 37%    
  Jan 17, 2026 5   Florida L 76-82 32%    
  Jan 20, 2026 17   @ Arkansas L 73-80 26%    
  Jan 24, 2026 33   @ Mississippi St. L 74-78 36%    
  Jan 27, 2026 7   Kentucky L 78-82 38%    
  Jan 31, 2026 30   @ Mississippi L 73-78 35%    
  Feb 07, 2026 47   Oklahoma W 79-75 63%    
  Feb 10, 2026 22   @ Auburn L 73-80 29%    
  Feb 14, 2026 35   Texas A&M W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 18, 2026 37   @ Missouri L 76-80 37%    
  Feb 21, 2026 16   Tennessee L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 25, 2026 51   Georgia W 76-71 65%    
  Feb 28, 2026 7   @ Kentucky L 75-85 21%    
  Mar 04, 2026 30   Mississippi W 76-75 54%    
  Mar 07, 2026 16   @ Tennessee L 65-73 26%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.0 1.8 0.5 0.0 4.7 4th
5th 0.2 1.7 2.7 0.7 0.0 5.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 3.1 1.3 0.1 5.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.1 2.6 0.3 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 3.9 0.9 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 4.2 2.1 0.1 7.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.1 3.5 0.6 7.6 10th
11th 0.2 2.4 4.1 1.3 0.0 8.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.1 2.4 0.2 8.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.9 3.3 3.0 0.5 0.0 7.8 13th
14th 0.1 0.8 2.7 3.2 1.0 0.0 7.8 14th
15th 0.1 1.0 2.4 2.9 1.1 0.1 7.6 15th
16th 0.4 1.3 2.1 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.5 16th
Total 0.4 1.4 3.1 5.1 7.3 9.2 11.1 11.4 11.8 10.8 8.8 7.1 5.0 3.4 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
16-2 90.3% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
15-3 68.8% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.1
14-4 35.0% 0.8    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 9.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 45.4% 54.6% 1.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 24.4% 75.6% 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.5% 100.0% 31.6% 68.4% 1.7 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.2% 100.0% 21.5% 78.5% 2.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.2% 100.0% 15.1% 84.9% 2.9 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 3.4% 100.0% 12.6% 87.4% 3.8 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 5.0% 99.7% 8.3% 91.4% 4.8 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
11-7 7.1% 98.7% 3.9% 94.8% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.7%
10-8 8.8% 94.2% 2.2% 92.0% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.5 94.1%
9-9 10.8% 82.9% 1.4% 81.4% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.2 1.8 1.5 0.4 1.8 82.6%
8-10 11.8% 57.1% 0.8% 56.3% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.5 2.0 1.2 0.0 5.1 56.7%
7-11 11.4% 25.5% 0.3% 25.3% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.0 8.5 25.3%
6-12 11.1% 5.9% 0.1% 5.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 10.4 5.8%
5-13 9.2% 0.6% 0.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.2 0.6%
4-14 7.3% 7.3
3-15 5.1% 5.1
2-16 3.1% 3.1
1-17 1.4% 1.4
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 47.1% 2.4% 44.7% 6.8 1.1 2.0 3.1 4.3 4.8 5.8 6.1 6.1 5.2 5.3 3.2 0.1 52.9 45.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 50.0 50.0