New Haven
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.3 334
Expected Predictive Rating -11.0 328
Pace 60.8 355
Improvement -0.1 193

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- 350 D+ F+ D D- C-
Defense D+ 267 D+ C C- C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 261 C+ 60% 125 -0.8 211
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 121 D+ 35% 286 +0.3 164
Three Pointers 41% 183 D- 30% 329 -2.7 277
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 259 D+ -2.7 274
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 274
Second Chance F 21.4% 353 D 0.93 306 F+ 0.20 358
Turnovers D 19.5% 324
Freethrows D- 0.25 333 C 72% 208 D- 0.18 339
Total Offense D- -8.3 350

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 133 D+ 61% 266 -2.2 259
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 303 C 39% 204 +1.4 83
Three Pointers 43% 111 D+ 36% 267 -2.5 293
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.5 259 D+ -2.7 274
1st FG Attempt 1.09 289 D+ -3.3 290
Second Chance B- 28.5% 98 D+ 1.10 289 C 0.31 186
Turnovers C- 16.2% 220
Freethrows B- 0.28 95 D- 75% 330 C+ 0.21 147
Total Defense D+ -3.0 267

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 20.2 364 16.7 78
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 320 0.18 199
Improvement +1.0 #127 -1.2 #263

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 61% 84% 51%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 4% 1% 5%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: LIU Brooklyn (Home) - 29.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 30 - 40 - 7
Quad 410 - 1110 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 7 @Connecticut L 55 - 79 0% -12  0% 0 - 1 C -0 D -5 A- F B+ B +4 B C B-
 Fri, Nov 7 204 Columbia L 53 - 71 29% -16  0% 0 - 2 F -24 F -22 F D- F C- -2 F A B
 Sat, Nov 8 108 Penn St. L 43 - 87 13% -18  14% 0 - 3 F -43 F -29 F F F F -20 D+ F F
 Mon, Nov 10 316 @Umass Lowell W 73 - 67 31% -1  42% 1 - 3 C -0 D -4 C C- F B +4 A+ F D-
 Sat, Nov 15 359 Delaware St. W 65 - 52 75% +7  92% 2 - 3 D+ -5 F -11 D+ F+ F B+ +6 B C+ D-
 Tue, Nov 18 53 @Seton Hall L 45 - 68 2% -14  0% 2 - 4 D -10 F -14 D- D- B- C+ +1 F+ A C+
 Sat, Dec 6 132 @Boston College L 63 - 67 7% +3  73% 2 - 5 C +1 C+ +2 C+ D C- C- -2 F A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 310 @NJIT L 64 - 70 30% -4  4% 2 - 6 D- -12 F+ -9 F D A- C- -3 F A D+
 Mon, Dec 22 155 @Fordham L 47 - 65 10% -5  37% 2 - 7 F+ -15 F -20 D F F B- +3 D D- A+
 Mon, Dec 29 14 @Vanderbilt L 53 - 96 1% -24  0% 2 - 8 F -21 F -12 D+ F C+ F+ -10 F D+ C
 Fri, Jan 2 337 @Stonehill W 70 - 55 39% +5  53% 3 - 8 1 - 0 B- +7 C +0 B D C B+ +7 B+ D D-
 Sun, Jan 4 291 @Central Connecticut St. L 61 - 72 26% -10  0% 3 - 9 1 - 1 F+ -16 D- -6 F+ A F F -11 F D D+
 Thu, Jan 8 301 @Le Moyne L 47 - 73 28% -16  4% 3 - 10 1 - 2 F -31 F -24 F F F F -11 F+ D- F
 Sat, Jan 10 329 Fairleigh Dickinson W 65 - 55 59% +10  96% 4 - 10 2 - 2 C- -4 F+ -9 B- F+ D B+ +6 A A F+
 Sat, Jan 17 332 Wagner W 80 - 74 61% +8  97% 5 - 10 3 - 2 D -8 A- +10 A+ F C- F -17 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 19 352 @Chicago St. W 62 - 56 46% -3  18% 6 - 10 4 - 2 C- -4 D- -7 D- C F B- +4 D- A C+
 Fri, Jan 23 302 Mercyhurst L 57 - 61 49% +0  43% 6 - 11 4 - 3 F+ -15 F -10 C+ F+ F D -5 F B+ C-
 Thu, Jan 29 302 @Mercyhurst L 51 - 70 28% -13  1% 6 - 12 4 - 4 F -24 F -17 F F A- F+ -10 A- F F
 Sat, Jan 31 355 @St. Francis (PA) W 81 - 69 50% +5  77% 7 - 12 5 - 4 C +1 B- +4 B F A- C- -3 C- C- D-
 Thu, Feb 5 205 @LIU Brooklyn L 55 - 60 14% -7  3% 7 - 13 5 - 5 C- -5 F -12 D+ F B B+ +7 A C C
 Sat, Feb 7 352 Chicago St. L 57 - 63 68% -6  7% 7 - 14 5 - 6 F -22 F -16 D- F C+ D -7 F A+ F
 Thu, Feb 12 291 Central Connecticut St. L 76 - 81 47% -6  10% 7 - 15 5 - 7 F+ -16 D -5 F+ A- F+ F+ -10 F A+ A
 Sat, Feb 14 205 LIU Brooklyn L 63 - 69 29%
 Thu, Feb 19 337 Stonehill W 62 - 59 62%
 Sat, Feb 21 329 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 63 - 67 37%
 Tue, Feb 24 355 St. Francis (PA) W 72 - 66 72%
 Thu, Feb 26 332 @Wagner L 64 - 67 38%
 Sat, Feb 28 301 Le Moyne L 68 - 69 49%
Totals 10 - 18 8 - 10 -11 F -8 C+ D+ C- D+ -3 D- C D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- C+ D+ D- D+ 36% 23% 41% C- D+ F D F+ D D- C D- D+ D+ C D+ D+ 40% 17% 43% D+ D+ B- D+ C C- B- D- C+
0.97 60% 35% 30% -3 -1 0.95 21% 0.9 .20 19% .25 72% .18 1.13 61% 39% 36% +3 +1 1.09 29% 1.1 .31 16% .28 75% .19
Nov
3		 Connecticut D B A+ F A 39% 33% 29% D A- F F F B+ F F F B B+ F C- A- 47% 6% 47% F+ B B+ F+ C B- D- F F
0.83 58% 50% 21% -1 -2 0.96 12% 0.5 .06 17% .25 43% .11 1.19 55% 67% 36% +2 +2 1.11 32% 1.3 .42 18% .37 85% .31
Nov
7		 Columbia F F F F F 41% 22% 37% C- F F+ D+ D- F C- A C+ C- F B- F F 52% 14% 34% D- F B+ A+ A B C A B-
0.81 45% 18% 22% -16 0 0.69 21% 0.9 .19 18% .30 81% .24 1.08 70% 33% 47% +12 +2 1.30 31% 0.6 .19 24% .28 64% .18
Nov
8		 Penn St. F D- B+ F F 36% 18% 46% C F F F F F D+ F D F A F F C- 49% 10% 41% F D+ F F F F B- C- B-
0.69 50% 43% 22% -10 0 0.82 20% 1.0 .20 31% .19 63% .12 1.40 48% 80% 43% +5 +2 1.16 40% 1.6 .63 10% .28 75% .21
Nov
10		 Umass Lowell D C B- A- C+ 45% 24% 31% D+ C C- C- C- F C F D+ B A+ D+ A+ A+ 35% 15% 50% D+ A+ D+ F F D- F F F
1.07 59% 42% 40% +4 0 1.10 30% 1.1 .33 20% .28 67% .18 0.98 29% 43% 25% -16 +1 0.71 33% 1.5 .51 18% .48 78% .37
Nov
15		 Delaware St. F A+ C F C- 35% 20% 45% D D+ D+ F F+ F A B A B+ F A+ A+ B+ 30% 36% 34% C+ B A+ F C+ D- A C- A
0.98 79% 38% 28% +3 0 1.08 29% 0.9 .25 26% .41 75% .31 0.79 63% 16% 22% -13 -3 0.72 15% 1.2 .18 17% .18 70% .13
Nov
18		 Seton Hall F D F D D 28% 28% 43% F D- F A+ D- B- F F F C+ D- A+ F F+ 41% 18% 41% C- F+ A+ D- A C+ A+ F A+
0.73 46% 23% 30% -10 -2 0.78 15% 1.2 .18 23% .17 63% .10 1.10 65% 22% 40% +4 0 1.10 23% 1.1 .27 16% .19 80% .15
Dec
6		 Boston College C+ D A+ F+ B 23% 34% 43% F C+ C+ F D C- A+ A+ A+ C- C D F F 18% 28% 55% A F D A+ A+ A+ F F F
1.01 50% 53% 26% -2 -3 0.93 28% 0.7 .19 16% .46 83% .38 1.08 57% 45% 45% +11 -2 1.20 33% 0.5 .15 24% .49 74% .36
Dec
10		 NJIT F+ D+ D- F F 47% 25% 27% C- F C F+ D A- D+ F F C- F F A- F 30% 19% 51% D+ F A A+ A D+ F C F
0.96 54% 29% 20% -10 0 0.82 34% 0.9 .30 11% .32 58% .19 1.05 69% 63% 27% +3 0 1.07 19% 0.7 .13 17% .56 71% .40
Dec
22		 Fordham F A+ F F D 26% 30% 44% D D F F F F F F F B- F+ D A D- 40% 27% 33% B- D B- F D- A+ B+ D+ B
0.74 85% 13% 27% -5 -2 0.88 17% 0.3 .06 24% .04 50% .02 1.03 68% 46% 25% +2 -1 1.04 33% 1.2 .41 24% .17 75% .12
Dec
29		 Vanderbilt F C+ D- F D- 48% 24% 28% B+ D+ F F+ F C+ F D+ F F+ F A+ F F 56% 7% 37% F F F+ B D+ C A+ F A
0.77 58% 31% 13% -10 0 0.81 14% 0.8 .11 19% .13 71% .09 1.40 75% 25% 43% +14 +3 1.35 39% 1.1 .43 13% .20 92% .18
Jan
2		 Stonehill C C+ F A+ B 36% 23% 42% D+ B F A+ D C F D F B+ A- A+ A+ A 55% 10% 35% F B+ C+ F D D- C+ D- C-
1.06 58% 25% 45% +4 0 1.09 13% 1.8 .23 12% .16 67% .10 0.83 44% 20% 24% -15 +3 0.78 26% 1.1 .29 18% .22 75% .17
Jan
4		 Central Connecticut St. D- C- D- F F+ 37% 12% 51% C- F+ A- B+ A F F F F F C+ F+ F F 29% 23% 48% D- F C+ F D D+ A+ B+ A+
1.04 56% 33% 28% -6 +1 0.92 40% 1.1 .46 19% .06 67% .04 1.23 57% 45% 48% +11 -1 1.23 25% 1.3 .32 15% .14 71% .10
Jan
8		 Le Moyne F D F F F 33% 19% 49% C- F F F F F A- F F+ F F B A- F 37% 14% 49% C F+ D D D- F F A D-
0.77 50% 13% 29% -11 0 0.79 22% 0.8 .16 21% .39 47% .19 1.19 88% 33% 29% +6 +1 1.16 29% 1.1 .32 13% .45 63% .28
Jan
10		 Fairleigh Dickinson F+ A+ F C B- 46% 18% 36% B- B- F A+ F+ D A+ F B- B+ B- A+ A+ A+ 35% 6% 58% F A B+ A+ A F+ D- D+ F+
1.04 78% 29% 36% +8 +1 1.21 13% 1.3 .17 18% .51 54% .27 0.88 53% 0% 21% -15 +2 0.75 26% 0.6 .17 14% .34 72% .24
Jan
17		 Wagner A- A F A+ A+ 28% 15% 57% D A+ F F F C- F A+ D+ F F D F F 36% 20% 44% C F F A- F A+ A+ D+ A
1.32 69% 14% 58% +20 0 1.41 21% 0.4 .08 15% .27 93% .25 1.22 69% 44% 45% +12 0 1.27 50% 0.9 .46 28% .16 71% .11
Jan
19		 Chicago St. D- C- F D+ F+ 41% 3% 56% B+ D- A F C F C- A+ A B- C- D+ C D 48% 26% 26% F D- B- A+ A C+ A C A
1.06 63% 0% 32% -1 +3 1.05 46% 0.8 .39 29% .34 100% .34 0.95 55% 42% 33% -1 0 1.00 26% 0.5 .13 17% .16 75% .12
Jan
23		 Mercyhurst F A A F B- 44% 23% 33% D C+ F C F+ F C+ C- C+ D C D F F+ 48% 24% 28% F F A+ F B+ C- B+ F C
0.97 71% 44% 23% +2 0 1.05 24% 1.0 .24 24% .38 71% .27 1.04 55% 45% 38% +2 0 1.07 12% 1.7 .20 15% .14 100% .14
Jan
29		 Mercyhurst F D- A+ F F 38% 31% 31% F F F C F A- A F C+ F+ A+ C+ D+ A 35% 35% 29% C A- C- F F F D- F F
0.84 50% 54% 8% -10 -1 0.79 18% 1.0 .18 15% .44 61% .27 1.15 28% 39% 33% -11 -2 0.76 27% 1.9 .51 7% .26 87% .23
Jan
31		 St. Francis (PA) B- A+ F A+ B+ 36% 20% 43% D B F C F A- A+ A- A+ C- D- A+ B- C 44% 18% 38% F C- B F C- D- F+ B- D-
1.22 81% 0% 53% +13 0 1.27 19% 1.2 .22 15% .48 78% .37 1.04 64% 11% 32% -4 +1 0.96 23% 1.3 .29 15% .32 67% .21
Feb
5		 LIU Brooklyn F C- A+ F D+ 52% 22% 26% C D+ F F F B D F F+ B+ B- C A+ A+ 37% 22% 41% C A C+ C- C C B- F C-
0.87 54% 60% 17% -4 +1 0.96 13% 0.8 .10 16% .28 60% .17 0.95 53% 40% 21% -9 0 0.83 34% 1.0 .34 21% .26 77% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Chicago St. F F+ F B- F+ 34% 5% 61% B- D- F A+ F C+ F F F D B- F D+ F 26% 43% 30% A F A+ A+ A+ F C- D- D+
0.97 53% 0% 37% 0 +2 1.05 10% 1.7 .16 19% .25 67% .17 1.07 50% 55% 36% +6 -4 1.07 19% 0.3 .06 8% .28 80% .22
Feb
12		 Central Connecticut St. D D- B F F 50% 19% 31% C F+ D- A+ A- F+ A+ A+ A+ F+ F D- F F 30% 35% 35% B- F A A+ A+ A F B F
1.10 50% 44% 27% -6 +1 0.92 26% 1.6 .42 16% .38 95% .36 1.17 79% 44% 56% +20 -2 1.37 19% 0.6 .12 22% .41 73% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.4 0.7 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.6 3.6 0.7 4.9 3rd
4th 0.4 6.7 3.7 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.1 6.0 10.4 0.5 17.0 5th
6th 3.4 14.9 3.3 0.0 21.6 6th
7th 0.0 3.9 18.8 8.6 0.1 31.4 7th
8th 0.5 5.9 3.2 0.1 9.7 8th
9th 1.2 1.7 0.1 3.0 9th
10th 0.5 0.1 0.5 10th
Total 2.1 11.6 25.6 29.9 21.2 8.2 1.4 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 1.4% 1.4
10-6 8.2% 8.2
9-7 21.2% 21.2
8-8 29.9% 29.9
7-9 25.6% 25.6
6-10 11.6% 11.6
5-11 2.1% 2.1
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4%
Lose Out 2.1%