Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#258
Expected Predictive Rating-5.2#251
Pace72.8#76
Improvement+2.2#84

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#271
First Shot-3.4#276
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#203
Layup/Dunks-1.1#220
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#69
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#256
Freethrows-1.6#286
Improvement+0.5#148

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#237
First Shot-1.1#212
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#252
Layups/Dunks-2.5#282
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#68
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#160
Freethrows-0.9#252
Improvement+1.7#91
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.0% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.7
.500 or above 3.2% 10.4% 2.0%
.500 or above in Conference 25.4% 51.1% 21.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Troy (Away) - 14.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 50 - 7
Quad 33 - 73 - 14
Quad 49 - 612 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 285   Bowling Green W 77-68 67%     1 - 0 -0.9 -4.8 +3.4
  Nov 07, 2024 97   @ UAB L 84-98 11%     1 - 1 -6.0 +1.1 -5.5
  Nov 20, 2024 114   @ South Dakota St. L 76-101 15%     1 - 2 -19.3 -8.3 -6.7
  Nov 24, 2024 180   @ Montana St. L 59-79 24%     1 - 3 -18.1 -14.6 -2.8
  Nov 25, 2024 242   Abilene Christian L 74-82 46%     1 - 4 -12.4 +6.5 -19.3
  Nov 30, 2024 161   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 66-65 39%     2 - 4 -1.5 -1.6 +0.3
  Dec 05, 2024 299   Alabama St. W 81-64 69%     3 - 4 +6.5 -2.6 +8.2
  Dec 10, 2024 148   @ Tulane L 58-86 19%     3 - 5 -24.1 -13.4 -10.7
  Dec 14, 2024 19   Mississippi L 46-77 4%     3 - 6 -15.4 -14.1 -4.4
  Dec 17, 2024 231   Lamar L 65-69 55%     3 - 7 -10.7 -7.8 -2.9
  Dec 21, 2024 179   Marshall W 68-66 43%     4 - 7 1 - 0 -1.6 +7.7 -8.9
  Jan 02, 2025 149   @ James Madison L 72-83 19%     4 - 8 1 - 1 -7.2 +3.8 -11.5
  Jan 04, 2025 283   @ Old Dominion L 71-74 46%     4 - 9 1 - 2 -7.3 -1.6 -5.8
  Jan 09, 2025 347   Louisiana Monroe W 84-67 81%     5 - 9 2 - 2 +2.2 -4.3 +4.6
  Jan 11, 2025 167   Texas St. W 92-88 OT 41%     6 - 9 3 - 2 +1.0 -0.3 +0.6
  Jan 15, 2025 126   @ South Alabama L 62-75 16%     6 - 10 3 - 3 -7.9 -7.4 -0.3
  Jan 18, 2025 167   @ Texas St. L 82-85 OT 22%     6 - 11 3 - 4 -0.5 -0.8 +0.7
  Jan 23, 2025 117   @ Troy L 66-77 14%    
  Jan 25, 2025 307   @ Louisiana L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 29, 2025 100   Arkansas St. L 71-79 25%    
  Feb 01, 2025 272   Georgia Southern W 79-75 64%    
  Feb 05, 2025 123   @ Appalachian St. L 61-72 15%    
  Feb 08, 2025 250   @ Ball St. L 73-76 37%    
  Feb 12, 2025 100   @ Arkansas St. L 69-82 11%    
  Feb 15, 2025 347   @ Louisiana Monroe W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 20, 2025 292   Coastal Carolina W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 22, 2025 307   Louisiana W 76-71 71%    
  Feb 26, 2025 126   South Alabama L 66-71 33%    
  Feb 28, 2025 117   Troy L 69-74 31%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.2 0.9 0.2 1.3 4th
5th 0.2 1.3 1.0 0.0 2.5 5th
6th 0.2 1.5 2.9 0.5 5.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 5.7 2.3 0.1 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 2.0 8.9 6.1 0.6 0.0 17.6 8th
9th 0.8 8.1 9.2 1.3 0.0 19.5 9th
10th 0.2 4.9 9.4 1.8 0.0 16.4 10th
11th 0.0 2.0 7.7 3.5 0.1 13.4 11th
12th 0.1 1.2 5.4 3.4 0.3 0.0 10.3 12th
13th 0.4 1.5 1.4 0.2 3.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.5 2.8 9.0 17.0 23.3 22.0 14.9 7.2 2.6 0.7 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.7% 3.0% 3.0% 15.0 0.0 0.7
11-7 2.6% 4.2% 4.2% 15.3 0.1 0.0 2.5
10-8 7.2% 2.8% 2.8% 15.6 0.1 0.1 7.0
9-9 14.9% 0.8% 0.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 14.7
8-10 22.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 21.9
7-11 23.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 23.2
6-12 17.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.0
5-13 9.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.0
4-14 2.8% 2.8
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.7 0.2 0.4 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%