Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.6 #244
Expected Predictive Rating -3.7 #227
Pace 70.7 #132
Improvement -3.9 #336

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #290 F C D+ B+ F
Defense #182 D+ C+ C D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #202 1.18 #152 -0.1 #182
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% #14 0.77 #154 +4.6 #17
Three Pointers 30% #352 0.72 #365 -10.0 #362
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #332 -5.5 #331
Freethrows 19.9 #76 75% #76 15.0 #57
Second Chance 29.6% #213 1.05 #171 0.31 #192
Turnovers 17.9% #272
Total Offense -4.2 #290

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #213 1.13 #135 +1.1 #133
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #216 0.75 #152 +0.6 #145
Three Pointers 43% #114 1.15 #335 -4.1 #325
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #256 -2.3 #256
Freethrows 19.6 #289 70% #90 13.8 #264
Second Chance 29.4% #128 1.02 #146 0.30 #124
Turnovers 17.0% #149
Total Defense -0.4 #182

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.0% #333 0.3% #187
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.0% #307 4.3% #262
Possession Length 17.9 #233 16.6 #72
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #183 0.21 #293
Improvement -6.4 #365 +2.5 #46

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.3% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.8 15.2
.500 or above 26.0% 40.9% 15.9%
.500 or above in Conference 54.7% 73.7% 41.7%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round1.6% 2.3% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coastal Carolina (Away) - 40.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 62 - 12
Quad 411 - 514 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 201 @Buffalo L 79 - 85 31% +3  0 - 1 -6 +8 A- B- F -14 F D+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 69 @South Carolina L 79 - 83 OT 8% -2  0 - 2 +7 +7 C A- A- +1 D A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 13 287 @Grambling St. L 70 - 75 49% -6  0 - 3 -9 -3 F A+ A+ -7 F B+ A-
 Sat, Nov 22 350 North Florida W 92 - 83 77% -0  1 - 3 -3 +6 C+ B- C- -10 F A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 226 Tennessee Martin W 70 - 60 47% +17  2 - 3 +6 +16 B- B- B+ -7 F A C
 Wed, Dec 3 253 @Radford W 82 - 75 40% +6  3 - 3 +5 +1 F D- D+ +4 A B- D
 Sat, Dec 6 40 @Miami (FL) L 64 - 88 4% -5  3 - 4 -9 -4 D- A+ F -3 C C+ A+
 Mon, Dec 8 287 Grambling St. W 68 - 60 71% -1  4 - 4 -2 -7 D+ D- F +5 C- A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 62 Mississippi L 67 - 71 11% -3  4 - 5 +5 +2 C+ C F +3 C+ A- C
 Thu, Dec 18 312 Louisiana W 62 - 54 76% +2  5 - 5 1 - 0 -4 -12 F F A+ +8 A A+ D
 Sat, Dec 20 145 Arkansas St. L 86 - 93 40% -3  5 - 6 1 - 1 -9 +9 B- B- D+ -18 B- F F
 Mon, Dec 29 43 @LSU L 62 - 90 5% -14  5 - 7 -13 -5 F F C+ -8 C C+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 87 - 73 78% +11  6 - 7 2 - 1 +1 -0 B F F +0 C C C-
 Sat, Jan 3 312 @Louisiana W 74 - 67 56% +2  7 - 7 3 - 1 +1 +3 B- D- F -2 D+ F A
 Thu, Jan 8 263 Texas St. W 80 - 70 OT 65% -0  8 - 7 4 - 1 +1 -2 D- C- D+ +3 B C+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 361 Louisiana Monroe W 70 - 60 90% -0  9 - 7 5 - 1 -9 -11 F D B+ +2 C+ B A
 Wed, Jan 14 112 @Troy L 65 - 91 15% -12  9 - 8 5 - 2 -20 -5 F A F -14 F B F
 Sat, Jan 17 263 @Texas St. L 67 - 74 42% -3  9 - 9 5 - 3 -10 -7 F F D- -3 F A A+
 Thu, Jan 22 273 @Georgia St. L 62 - 69 45% -2  9 - 10 5 - 4 -10 -11 F F C+ +1 A+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 24 252 @Coastal Carolina L 70 - 73 41%
 Thu, Jan 29 206 Appalachian St. W 68 - 67 54%
 Sat, Jan 31 231 James Madison W 74 - 72 59%
 Wed, Feb 4 163 @Marshall L 72 - 79 25%
 Sat, Feb 7 148 Kent St. L 79 - 81 42%
 Thu, Feb 12 191 South Alabama W 70 - 69 52%
 Sat, Feb 14 112 Troy L 70 - 75 32%
 Sat, Feb 21 240 Old Dominion W 75 - 72 60%
 Tue, Feb 24 145 @Arkansas St. L 75 - 84 21%
 Fri, Feb 27 191 @South Alabama L 66 - 72 30%
Totals 13 - 16 9 - 9 -5 -4 F C D+ +0 D+ C+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.5 3.4 1.8 0.1 5.8 3rd
4th 0.1 3.7 4.2 0.4 8.3 4th
5th 1.4 7.0 1.2 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.1 6.3 4.7 0.1 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.9 9.5 1.1 12.5 7th
8th 0.2 6.8 5.3 0.1 12.4 8th
9th 0.0 2.0 8.6 1.1 11.7 9th
10th 0.3 5.5 4.5 0.1 10.4 10th
11th 0.0 2.0 5.8 0.7 8.6 11th
12th 0.5 3.3 1.6 0.0 5.5 12th
13th 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.4 13th
14th 14th
Total 1.1 6.4 15.2 22.6 23.8 17.2 9.4 3.4 0.8 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 53.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 20.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
12-6 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.8% 17.2% 17.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
12-6 3.4% 8.9% 8.9% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.1
11-7 9.4% 5.1% 5.1% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 8.9
10-8 17.2% 2.3% 2.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 16.8
9-9 23.8% 0.7% 0.7% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 23.7
8-10 22.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 22.5
7-11 15.2% 15.2
6-12 6.4% 6.4
5-13 1.1% 1.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 15.0 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%