Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.4#297
Expected Predictive Rating-19.0#362
Pace74.7#42
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#255
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#317
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 3.0% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.4 14.3 14.9
.500 or above 11.5% 32.8% 10.3%
.500 or above in Conference 27.9% 47.8% 26.8%
Conference Champion 1.2% 3.6% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 14.5% 6.0% 15.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round1.1% 3.2% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina (Away) - 5.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 62 - 12
Quad 47 - 79 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 321   @ Buffalo L 79-85 45%     0 - 1 -12.0 +6.7 -19.1
  Nov 09, 2025 77   @ South Carolina L 63-81 5%    
  Nov 13, 2025 286   @ Grambling St. L 67-71 37%    
  Nov 22, 2025 337   North Florida W 84-81 61%    
  Dec 03, 2025 160   @ Radford L 67-77 19%    
  Dec 06, 2025 54   @ Miami (FL) L 67-87 3%    
  Dec 08, 2025 286   Grambling St. W 70-68 58%    
  Dec 13, 2025 30   Mississippi L 65-86 3%    
  Dec 18, 2025 248   Louisiana W 74-73 51%    
  Dec 20, 2025 134   Arkansas St. L 75-81 31%    
  Dec 29, 2025 56   @ LSU L 66-86 4%    
  Jan 01, 2026 357   @ Louisiana Monroe W 77-74 60%    
  Jan 03, 2026 248   @ Louisiana L 70-76 31%    
  Jan 08, 2026 260   Texas St. W 73-72 53%    
  Jan 10, 2026 357   Louisiana Monroe W 80-71 78%    
  Jan 14, 2026 117   @ Troy L 68-81 13%    
  Jan 17, 2026 260   @ Texas St. L 70-75 33%    
  Jan 22, 2026 311   @ Georgia St. L 75-77 42%    
  Jan 24, 2026 282   @ Coastal Carolina L 73-77 37%    
  Jan 29, 2026 240   Appalachian St. L 68-69 50%    
  Jan 31, 2026 138   James Madison L 70-76 32%    
  Feb 04, 2026 168   @ Marshall L 71-81 21%    
  Feb 12, 2026 155   South Alabama L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 14, 2026 117   Troy L 71-78 27%    
  Feb 21, 2026 205   Old Dominion L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 24, 2026 134   @ Arkansas St. L 72-84 16%    
  Feb 27, 2026 155   @ South Alabama L 65-75 20%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.6 0.1 2.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.8 0.5 0.0 5.8 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 3.9 1.4 0.1 7.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 4.1 2.3 0.2 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.3 3.3 0.5 0.0 9.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 4.2 4.3 1.0 0.1 10.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.1 4.9 1.8 0.1 12.0 11th
12th 0.1 1.1 3.9 5.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 12.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.1 4.2 1.7 0.3 11.9 13th
14th 0.6 1.7 3.0 2.4 0.8 0.2 8.6 14th
Total 0.6 1.9 4.5 7.6 10.0 12.0 12.6 12.3 10.7 9.4 6.8 4.9 3.3 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 87.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 75.0% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 41.7% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 13.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 21.9% 21.9% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.4% 22.2% 22.2% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.0% 20.6% 20.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
13-5 1.9% 12.2% 12.2% 16.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.7
12-6 3.3% 5.7% 5.7% 16.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.1
11-7 4.9% 2.6% 2.6% 16.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.8
10-8 6.8% 1.3% 1.3% 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.7
9-9 9.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3
8-10 10.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.7
7-11 12.3% 12.3
6-12 12.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.6
5-13 12.0% 12.0
4-14 10.0% 10.0
3-15 7.6% 7.6
2-16 4.5% 4.5
1-17 1.9% 1.9
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 16.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%