James Madison
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.6#112
Expected Predictive Rating+1.1#151
Pace69.0#176
Improvement+3.2#24

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#102
First Shot+0.6#154
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#59
Layup/Dunks+0.3#176
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#266
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#49
Freethrows-2.9#332
Improvement+0.6#132

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#144
First Shot-0.7#193
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#67
Layups/Dunks-3.7#315
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#255
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#40
Freethrows-0.3#217
Improvement+2.7#18
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.3% 27.1% 21.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.5 13.1
.500 or above 95.3% 98.5% 93.9%
.500 or above in Conference 95.9% 97.4% 95.1%
Conference Champion 35.2% 41.2% 32.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round23.3% 27.1% 21.5%
Second Round3.5% 4.6% 2.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 1.0% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wake Forest (Away) - 31.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 37 - 67 - 8
Quad 412 - 220 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 161   Ohio W 88-78 74%     1 - 0 +6.9 +9.7 -3.0
  Nov 09, 2024 196   @ Norfolk St. L 69-83 59%     1 - 1 -12.7 -3.4 -9.5
  Nov 16, 2024 209   @ Towson L 63-67 62%     1 - 2 -3.4 -2.2 -1.5
  Nov 21, 2024 215   Illinois-Chicago W 99-81 73%     2 - 2 +15.3 +17.0 -3.1
  Nov 22, 2024 95   UC San Diego L 67-73 42%     2 - 3 -0.3 +6.3 -7.4
  Nov 23, 2024 173   Jacksonville St. W 71-65 67%     3 - 3 +5.2 +4.6 +1.3
  Nov 29, 2024 83   George Mason L 61-66 50%     3 - 4 -1.4 -2.8 +0.9
  Dec 03, 2024 147   East Tennessee St. W 71-61 72%     4 - 4 +7.6 +1.9 +6.4
  Dec 07, 2024 165   Utah Valley W 78-61 75%     5 - 4 +13.5 +11.6 +3.3
  Dec 17, 2024 94   @ Wake Forest L 68-73 31%    
  Dec 21, 2024 201   @ South Alabama W 71-69 59%    
  Jan 02, 2025 282   Southern Miss W 80-67 89%    
  Jan 04, 2025 111   Arkansas St. W 76-73 61%    
  Jan 09, 2025 186   @ Marshall W 77-75 57%    
  Jan 11, 2025 171   @ Appalachian St. W 69-68 55%    
  Jan 16, 2025 186   Marshall W 80-72 76%    
  Jan 18, 2025 171   Appalachian St. W 72-65 75%    
  Jan 22, 2025 318   @ Old Dominion W 80-71 81%    
  Jan 25, 2025 253   @ Georgia St. W 78-72 70%    
  Jan 30, 2025 274   Coastal Carolina W 76-63 87%    
  Feb 01, 2025 318   Old Dominion W 83-68 92%    
  Feb 05, 2025 127   Troy W 75-71 65%    
  Feb 13, 2025 235   @ Georgia Southern W 78-74 65%    
  Feb 15, 2025 274   @ Coastal Carolina W 73-66 72%    
  Feb 20, 2025 253   Georgia St. W 81-69 85%    
  Feb 22, 2025 235   Georgia Southern W 81-71 83%    
  Feb 25, 2025 326   @ Louisiana Monroe W 76-66 81%    
  Feb 28, 2025 138   @ Texas St. L 71-72 48%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.4 7.3 10.6 8.9 4.6 1.2 35.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.7 7.5 7.3 3.0 0.5 0.0 21.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 5.6 5.1 1.5 0.1 14.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.1 3.9 1.0 0.1 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 6.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 2.6 0.9 0.1 4.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.0 0.1 3.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.3 4.2 7.0 10.3 13.5 15.9 16.2 13.7 9.4 4.6 1.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
17-1 99.7% 4.6    4.4 0.1
16-2 94.4% 8.9    7.5 1.3 0.0
15-3 77.3% 10.6    6.7 3.5 0.4 0.0
14-4 44.9% 7.3    2.8 3.2 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 14.9% 2.4    0.4 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 35.2% 35.2 23.1 9.1 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.2% 51.4% 51.2% 0.2% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.3%
17-1 4.6% 44.8% 44.8% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.5
16-2 9.4% 37.7% 37.7% 0.0% 12.3 0.2 2.2 1.1 0.1 5.8 0.0%
15-3 13.7% 32.6% 32.6% 12.6 0.0 1.9 2.1 0.3 0.0 9.3
14-4 16.2% 27.7% 27.7% 13.0 0.0 1.0 2.5 0.9 0.0 11.7
13-5 15.9% 22.5% 22.5% 13.3 0.4 1.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 12.3
12-6 13.5% 17.7% 17.7% 13.6 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 11.1
11-7 10.3% 11.9% 11.9% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 9.1
10-8 7.0% 7.5% 7.5% 14.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 6.4
9-9 4.2% 6.0% 6.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.9
8-10 2.3% 4.8% 4.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.1
7-11 1.1% 2.1% 2.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.1
6-12 0.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.5
5-13 0.2% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 23.3% 23.3% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 7.2 9.3 4.6 1.1 0.1 76.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 9.2 2.9 5.9 11.8 7.4 4.4 11.8 13.2 29.4 13.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 1.5% 11.0 1.5