James Madison
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.2#138
Expected Predictive Rating+2.2#131
Pace63.6#300
Improvement-1.9#276

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#111
First Shot+0.4#153
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#85
Layup/Dunks+0.2#177
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#247
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#68
Freethrows-2.4#316
Improvement-1.5#256

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#197
First Shot-1.9#235
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#93
Layups/Dunks-2.3#272
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#310
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#99
Freethrows+0.1#179
Improvement-0.5#210
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.4% 15.0% 11.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 14.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 66.9% 76.0% 28.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round14.4% 15.0% 11.6%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Southern (Home) - 80.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 37 - 67 - 11
Quad 412 - 119 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 172   Ohio W 88-78 66%     1 - 0 +6.9 +10.9 -4.1
  Nov 09, 2024 181   @ Norfolk St. L 69-83 49%     1 - 1 -12.6 -3.3 -9.5
  Nov 16, 2024 157   @ Towson L 63-67 43%     1 - 2 -1.0 -1.1 -0.2
  Nov 21, 2024 147   Illinois-Chicago W 99-81 52%     2 - 2 +18.7 +18.1 -0.7
  Nov 22, 2024 54   UC San Diego L 67-73 19%     2 - 3 +4.6 +8.6 -4.8
  Nov 23, 2024 124   Jacksonville St. W 71-65 47%     3 - 3 +8.1 +6.6 +2.2
  Nov 29, 2024 75   George Mason L 61-66 36%     3 - 4 +0.1 +0.7 -1.1
  Dec 03, 2024 148   East Tennessee St. W 71-61 62%     4 - 4 +8.2 +2.4 +6.4
  Dec 07, 2024 125   Utah Valley W 78-61 57%     5 - 4 +16.5 +13.3 +4.6
  Dec 17, 2024 55   @ Wake Forest L 58-75 14%     5 - 5 -3.9 +4.2 -10.9
  Dec 21, 2024 133   @ South Alabama L 49-77 39%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -23.9 -14.5 -12.3
  Jan 02, 2025 280   Southern Miss W 83-72 84%     6 - 6 1 - 1 +1.9 +11.2 -8.9
  Jan 04, 2025 97   Arkansas St. W 67-62 45%     7 - 6 2 - 1 +7.5 -1.1 +8.8
  Jan 09, 2025 190   @ Marshall L 78-80 52%     7 - 7 2 - 2 -1.1 +4.8 -5.9
  Jan 11, 2025 141   @ Appalachian St. L 66-86 41%     7 - 8 2 - 3 -16.3 -3.2 -12.6
  Jan 16, 2025 190   Marshall W 67-64 70%     8 - 8 3 - 3 -1.2 -8.4 +7.2
  Jan 18, 2025 141   Appalachian St. L 50-58 60%     8 - 9 3 - 4 -9.4 -12.6 +2.0
  Jan 22, 2025 286   @ Old Dominion W 74-60 71%     9 - 9 4 - 4 +9.6 +7.5 +3.8
  Jan 25, 2025 252   @ Georgia St. W 86-79 64%     10 - 9 5 - 4 +4.5 +13.4 -8.6
  Jan 30, 2025 312   Coastal Carolina W 73-64 88%     11 - 9 6 - 4 -2.6 +7.0 -8.0
  Feb 01, 2025 286   Old Dominion W 68-54 84%     12 - 9 7 - 4 +4.5 -1.1 +7.5
  Feb 05, 2025 118   Troy W 64-61 54%     13 - 9 8 - 4 +3.2 +4.7 -1.0
  Feb 08, 2025 221   @ Toledo L 69-72 57%     13 - 10 -3.7 +4.0 -8.2
  Feb 13, 2025 248   @ Georgia Southern W 77-72 63%     14 - 10 9 - 4 +2.7 +9.3 -6.2
  Feb 15, 2025 312   @ Coastal Carolina W 74-73 77%     15 - 10 10 - 4 -5.5 +6.2 -11.6
  Feb 20, 2025 252   Georgia St. W 83-63 80%     16 - 10 11 - 4 +12.4 +11.2 +2.9
  Feb 22, 2025 248   Georgia Southern W 78-69 81%    
  Feb 25, 2025 336   @ Louisiana Monroe W 75-65 82%    
  Feb 28, 2025 202   @ Texas St. W 72-71 52%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.6 31.1 35.2 66.9 1st
2nd 3.9 15.1 19.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 7.0 7.1 3rd
4th 0.8 4.4 5.2 4th
5th 1.2 0.8 2.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 2.1 16.6 46.1 35.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 35.2    24.5 10.7
13-5 67.3% 31.1    1.5 7.7 13.2 7.4 1.3
12-6 3.6% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 66.9% 66.9 26.0 18.4 13.3 7.6 1.6



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 35.2% 17.2% 17.2% 13.2 0.9 3.4 1.6 0.1 29.2
13-5 46.1% 14.1% 14.1% 13.9 0.1 1.6 3.9 0.9 0.0 39.7
12-6 16.6% 10.0% 10.0% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 15.0
11-7 2.1% 7.8% 7.8% 14.6 0.1 0.1 1.9
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 13.6 1.0 5.2 6.4 1.7 0.1 85.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.0% 100.0% 13.2 14.9 56.6 26.5 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 13.1%
Lose Out 0.6%