James Madison
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.0 #231
Expected Predictive Rating -4.0 #228
Pace 65.0 #283
Improvement -0.7 #225

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #160 C C- C C- C+
Defense #298 C C F D- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #227 1.13 #210 -1.6 #244
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #255 0.62 #338 -2.5 #301
Three Pointers 46% #71 1.06 #125 +3.7 #66
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #188 -0.4 #187
Freethrows 17.0 #227 72% #213 12.1 #214
Second Chance 27.8% #261 1.08 #128 0.30 #215
Turnovers 16.8% #202
Total Offense +0.1 #160

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #136 1.10 #102 +0.1 #172
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #287 0.77 #203 +1.2 #100
Three Pointers 43% #132 1.07 #257 -2.0 #274
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #199 -0.7 #198
Freethrows 20.9 #326 72% #199 15.1 #320
Second Chance 31.5% #227 1.00 #125 0.32 #173
Turnovers 11.9% #358
Total Defense -4.1 #298

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.7% #141 1.2% #277
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.5% #204 0.2% #187
Possession Length 18.6 #306 17.4 #188
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #279 0.15 #98
Improvement -1.8 #288 +1.1 #112

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.4% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.6 14.8
.500 or above 32.8% 40.4% 17.0%
.500 or above in Conference 27.3% 34.9% 11.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.1% 1.4% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Home) - 67.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 33 - 63 - 10
Quad 411 - 714 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 64 @Akron L 71 - 85 8% -0  0 - 1 -2 -2 C- F F -0 A+ C F
 Sun, Nov 9 364 Coppin St. W 84 - 70 95% +13  1 - 1 -9 +0 C- F D -9 D+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 262 @Longwood L 72 - 82 45% -8  1 - 2 -13 -3 D D- C+ -10 B+ A- F
 Sat, Nov 15 222 @LIU Brooklyn L 79 - 88 37% -10  1 - 3 -10 +0 C+ D- D -9 F A+ D-
 Tue, Nov 18 157 Towson W 81 - 75 46% +3  2 - 3 +3 +21 A+ F A+ -17 D D+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 192 @Florida International W 80 - 72 32% -1  3 - 3 +9 +10 F A+ A+ -1 B- A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 261 Nebraska Omaha W 88 - 77 56% +13  4 - 3 +5 +19 A+ A+ C -12 F F C
 Sat, Nov 29 86 @George Mason L 66 - 82 10% -1  4 - 4 -6 +1 D- B- A+ -8 F A+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 346 NC Central W 67 - 62 85% +4  5 - 4 -10 -7 F F B- -3 B- D C-
 Sat, Dec 6 291 Norfolk St. W 68 - 67 73% +4  6 - 4 -9 -3 F C+ A+ -7 F C- A+
 Wed, Dec 17 240 @Old Dominion L 68 - 77 40% -6  6 - 5 0 - 1 -10 -2 C F F -9 C A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 251 @Georgia Southern L 92 - 96 OT 42% +3  6 - 6 0 - 2 -6 +7 F A+ C+ -12 C B- F
 Mon, Dec 29 20 @Arkansas L 74 - 103 2% -17  6 - 7 -9 +9 A+ C- F -17 F F F
 Sat, Jan 3 145 @Arkansas St. W 78 - 74 23% -2  7 - 7 1 - 2 +8 +5 A+ F F +3 B A+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 163 Marshall L 64 - 66 47% -8  7 - 8 1 - 3 -5 -3 F B- D -3 A+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 240 Old Dominion W 70 - 69 63% -9  8 - 8 2 - 3 -6 -5 B F F -1 A B- F
 Thu, Jan 15 206 @Appalachian St. L 65 - 80 34% -11  8 - 9 2 - 4 -15 +6 F C A -23 F F F
 Sat, Jan 17 163 @Marshall L 72 - 77 26% +0  8 - 10 2 - 5 -2 +1 C- A+ F -4 A D+ C
 Thu, Jan 22 191 South Alabama L 83 - 90 54% -2  8 - 11 2 - 6 -12 +3 A- C- F -14 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 263 Texas St. W 74 - 69 67%
 Thu, Jan 29 112 @Troy L 68 - 78 16%
 Sat, Jan 31 244 @Southern Miss L 72 - 74 41%
 Wed, Feb 4 312 Louisiana W 71 - 63 78%
 Sat, Feb 7 166 Toledo L 77 - 78 49%
 Thu, Feb 12 273 Georgia St. W 75 - 70 69%
 Sat, Feb 14 206 Appalachian St. W 69 - 67 57%
 Wed, Feb 18 252 @Coastal Carolina L 72 - 74 42%
 Sat, Feb 21 273 @Georgia St. L 72 - 73 47%
 Wed, Feb 25 251 Georgia Southern W 80 - 76 65%
 Fri, Feb 27 252 Coastal Carolina W 75 - 71 65%
Totals 14 - 16 7 - 11 -4 +0 C C- C -4 C C F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.8 0.3 1.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 1.3 0.1 3.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 3.9 0.3 5.3 5th
6th 0.1 4.8 2.0 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 6.5 0.3 8.5 7th
8th 0.2 6.2 3.1 0.0 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 2.0 8.6 0.5 11.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 7.3 5.0 0.0 12.8 10th
11th 0.2 4.2 9.1 0.9 14.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 3.7 8.6 3.5 0.1 16.4 12th
13th 0.1 0.6 2.5 4.6 2.4 0.2 10.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.1 0.7 3.0 8.5 15.6 22.3 22.6 16.1 8.3 2.5 0.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.4% 14.1% 14.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 2.5% 9.2% 9.2% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.3
10-8 8.3% 4.0% 4.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 8.0
9-9 16.1% 1.7% 1.7% 14.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 15.8
8-10 22.6% 0.9% 0.9% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 22.4
7-11 22.3% 0.1% 0.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 22.2
6-12 15.6% 15.6
5-13 8.5% 8.5
4-14 3.0% 3.0
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 14.6 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%