Wake Forest
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.6#55
Expected Predictive Rating+14.8#30
Pace67.0#211
Improvement+5.4#15

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#96
First Shot+2.6#104
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#168
Layup/Dunks+2.5#95
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#188
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#230
Freethrows+2.1#62
Improvement+4.1#25

Defense
Total Defense+7.7#21
First Shot+7.5#18
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#166
Layups/Dunks+6.5#19
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#56
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#239
Freethrows+0.5#147
Improvement+1.3#119
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.2% 47.3% 31.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 40.1% 46.2% 30.3%
Average Seed 10.5 10.4 10.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four23.5% 25.2% 20.7%
First Round28.6% 34.0% 19.8%
Second Round9.8% 11.9% 6.4%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 2.7% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.6% 0.5%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina St. (Away) - 61.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 13 - 8
Quad 25 - 08 - 8
Quad 38 - 217 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 362   Coppin St. W 64-49 99%     1 - 0 -6.0 -15.8 +9.5
  Nov 07, 2024 316   N.C. A&T W 80-64 97%     2 - 0 +4.3 -8.0 +10.2
  Nov 10, 2024 22   Michigan W 72-70 31%     3 - 0 +17.6 +8.2 +9.5
  Nov 13, 2024 345   South Carolina Upstate W 85-80 98%     4 - 0 -9.9 +1.2 -11.2
  Nov 16, 2024 42   @ Xavier L 60-75 35%     4 - 1 -0.5 -1.9 +0.6
  Nov 19, 2024 333   Western Carolina W 82-69 98%     5 - 1 -0.3 +4.0 -4.2
  Nov 23, 2024 334   Detroit Mercy W 67-57 98%     6 - 1 -3.4 -7.1 +4.2
  Nov 28, 2024 4   Florida L 58-75 14%     6 - 2 +5.2 -3.0 +7.6
  Nov 29, 2024 76   Minnesota W 57-51 62%     7 - 2 +13.4 -3.5 +17.8
  Dec 03, 2024 20   @ Texas A&M L 44-57 22%     7 - 3 +5.5 -12.3 +16.3
  Dec 07, 2024 174   Boston College W 72-66 90%     8 - 3 1 - 0 +2.8 +2.3 +0.9
  Dec 17, 2024 138   James Madison W 75-58 86%     9 - 3 +15.7 +13.0 +5.6
  Dec 21, 2024 23   @ Clemson L 62-73 24%     9 - 4 1 - 1 +7.1 -2.3 +9.5
  Dec 31, 2024 108   @ Syracuse W 81-71 67%     10 - 4 2 - 1 +16.0 +5.8 +9.7
  Jan 04, 2025 103   North Carolina St. W 77-59 80%     11 - 4 3 - 1 +19.7 +13.6 +8.0
  Jan 11, 2025 152   @ Miami (FL) W 88-78 76%     12 - 4 4 - 1 +13.1 +12.9 +0.3
  Jan 15, 2025 88   Stanford W 80-67 74%     13 - 4 5 - 1 +16.8 +11.6 +5.8
  Jan 18, 2025 128   @ Virginia Tech W 72-63 73%     14 - 4 6 - 1 +13.3 +5.3 +8.5
  Jan 21, 2025 40   North Carolina W 67-66 54%     15 - 4 7 - 1 +10.6 -4.7 +15.2
  Jan 25, 2025 2   Duke L 56-63 16%     15 - 5 7 - 2 +14.0 -5.7 +19.4
  Jan 28, 2025 21   @ Louisville L 59-72 23%     15 - 6 7 - 3 +5.3 -2.2 +6.9
  Feb 01, 2025 52   Pittsburgh W 76-74 60%     16 - 6 8 - 3 +10.1 +11.4 -1.1
  Feb 05, 2025 88   @ Stanford W 79-73 57%     17 - 6 9 - 3 +14.9 +9.2 +5.6
  Feb 08, 2025 112   @ California W 76-66 68%     18 - 6 10 - 3 +15.8 +11.0 +5.8
  Feb 12, 2025 82   Florida St. L 70-72 73%     18 - 7 10 - 4 +2.3 +4.4 -2.2
  Feb 15, 2025 37   @ SMU W 77-66 33%     19 - 7 11 - 4 +26.1 +16.0 +11.0
  Feb 22, 2025 103   @ North Carolina St. W 68-64 62%    
  Feb 26, 2025 93   Virginia W 67-59 79%    
  Mar 01, 2025 95   Notre Dame W 72-64 79%    
  Mar 03, 2025 2   @ Duke L 61-77 7%    
  Mar 08, 2025 99   Georgia Tech W 74-66 80%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 1.0 3.0 3rd
4th 0.1 4.2 21.4 25.9 1.5 53.1 4th
5th 0.0 2.6 15.0 18.5 4.0 40.1 5th
6th 0.4 2.1 1.1 3.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.5 4.8 20.3 40.0 31.8 2.6 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.4% 0.0    0.0
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 2.6% 89.3% 5.7% 83.6% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.3 88.7%
15-5 31.8% 54.3% 2.1% 52.2% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 5.4 9.1 0.4 14.5 53.3%
14-6 40.0% 39.1% 1.9% 37.2% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.8 10.1 0.6 24.4 37.9%
13-7 20.3% 25.9% 1.0% 24.9% 10.9 0.1 0.7 3.9 0.5 15.0 25.1%
12-8 4.8% 13.3% 0.2% 13.1% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 4.2 13.1%
11-9 0.5% 10.0% 4.0% 6.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 6.3%
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 41.2% 1.8% 39.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 3.7 10.7 23.9 1.6 58.8 40.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 92.7% 8.5 4.9 12.2 22.0 41.5 12.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1% 89.6% 9.4 2.8 11.3 33.0 30.2 10.4 1.9