Xavier
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.0#53
Expected Predictive Rating+8.3#75
Pace73.3#72
Improvement+1.0#112

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#60
First Shot+5.2#51
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#217
Layup/Dunks+3.0#82
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#256
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#130
Freethrows+2.0#71
Improvement-0.1#186

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#44
First Shot+4.1#68
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#86
Layups/Dunks+0.2#163
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#27
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#118
Freethrows+0.1#181
Improvement+1.1#93
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.1% 3.2% 0.7%
Top 6 Seed 4.0% 10.3% 2.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.4% 52.8% 29.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 30.1% 49.3% 26.5%
Average Seed 9.0 8.3 9.2
.500 or above 81.6% 93.1% 79.4%
.500 or above in Conference 56.4% 76.9% 52.5%
Conference Champion 3.5% 10.7% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 1.2% 4.7%
First Four7.3% 7.8% 7.2%
First Round29.8% 49.0% 26.1%
Second Round14.6% 25.4% 12.5%
Sweet Sixteen4.4% 8.6% 3.6%
Elite Eight1.6% 3.4% 1.3%
Final Four0.5% 1.1% 0.4%
Championship Game0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Connecticut (Away) - 16.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 9
Quad 25 - 48 - 13
Quad 34 - 113 - 14
Quad 46 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 300   Texas Southern W 78-69 96%     1 - 0 -1.5 -2.7 +0.9
  Nov 08, 2024 353   IU Indianapolis W 94-80 98%     2 - 0 -1.8 +15.1 -16.5
  Nov 12, 2024 311   Jackson St. W 94-57 96%     3 - 0 +25.8 +14.3 +10.1
  Nov 16, 2024 94   Wake Forest W 75-60 75%     4 - 0 +17.8 +10.2 +8.5
  Nov 20, 2024 283   Siena W 80-55 95%     5 - 0 +15.4 +7.6 +9.0
  Nov 25, 2024 69   South Carolina W 75-66 58%     6 - 0 +16.9 +5.3 +11.5
  Nov 27, 2024 20   Michigan L 53-78 33%     6 - 1 -10.6 -13.0 +2.8
  Dec 01, 2024 262   South Carolina St. W 71-68 95%     7 - 1 -5.6 -7.7 +2.1
  Dec 05, 2024 86   @ TCU L 72-76 53%     7 - 2 +5.3 +10.3 -5.1
  Dec 10, 2024 349   Morgan St. W 119-58 98%     8 - 2 +45.8 +30.7 +12.0
  Dec 14, 2024 27   @ Cincinnati L 65-68 27%     8 - 3 +13.3 +1.7 +11.6
  Dec 18, 2024 9   @ Connecticut L 69-79 16%    
  Dec 21, 2024 13   Marquette L 75-77 41%    
  Dec 31, 2024 117   Seton Hall W 69-59 82%    
  Jan 03, 2025 90   @ Georgetown W 75-74 54%    
  Jan 07, 2025 15   St. John's L 75-77 42%    
  Jan 11, 2025 88   @ DePaul W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 14, 2025 48   Villanova W 74-71 59%    
  Jan 18, 2025 13   @ Marquette L 72-80 22%    
  Jan 22, 2025 15   @ St. John's L 72-80 22%    
  Jan 25, 2025 9   Connecticut L 72-76 34%    
  Jan 29, 2025 36   @ Creighton L 73-78 32%    
  Feb 04, 2025 90   Georgetown W 78-71 73%    
  Feb 09, 2025 48   @ Villanova L 71-74 38%    
  Feb 12, 2025 75   @ Providence L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 15, 2025 88   DePaul W 78-71 74%    
  Feb 18, 2025 74   Butler W 78-72 69%    
  Feb 23, 2025 117   @ Seton Hall W 66-62 64%    
  Mar 01, 2025 36   Creighton W 76-75 53%    
  Mar 05, 2025 74   @ Butler L 75-76 49%    
  Mar 08, 2025 75   Providence W 72-66 70%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.1 4.1 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 10.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.6 5.2 2.2 0.3 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 5.4 5.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 15.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 5.6 5.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 14.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.8 4.7 1.3 0.1 0.0 12.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.7 3.6 1.0 0.1 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 2.7 0.8 0.1 7.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.5 0.5 0.0 4.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.1 5.4 8.5 11.1 13.2 13.8 12.8 11.0 8.3 5.3 3.1 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 97.8% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 89.6% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 64.6% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
15-5 35.6% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 11.0% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 1.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.0% 100.0% 13.0% 87.0% 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.2% 100.0% 18.5% 81.5% 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.6% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 4.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.4% 99.4% 19.2% 80.2% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
15-5 3.1% 98.3% 17.5% 80.8% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.9%
14-6 5.3% 92.2% 11.3% 80.9% 8.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.4 91.2%
13-7 8.3% 81.2% 9.5% 71.8% 9.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.0 1.9 0.8 0.0 1.6 79.3%
12-8 11.0% 63.3% 6.3% 56.9% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.4 1.9 0.1 4.0 60.8%
11-9 12.8% 43.4% 5.1% 38.3% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.8 2.4 0.2 7.3 40.4%
10-10 13.8% 21.6% 3.1% 18.5% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 0.2 10.8 19.1%
9-11 13.2% 5.6% 1.9% 3.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 12.4 3.8%
8-12 11.1% 1.6% 1.2% 0.4% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.9 0.4%
7-13 8.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4 0.0%
6-14 5.4% 0.5% 0.5% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4
5-15 3.1% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 3.1
4-16 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 33.4% 4.6% 28.7% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.9 4.5 6.0 7.5 7.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.7 30.1%