Xavier
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.4#77
Expected Predictive Rating+9.0#69
Pace71.6#133
Improvement+4.3#8

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#87
First Shot+3.4#86
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#172
Layup/Dunks-1.8#249
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#103
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#33
Freethrows-1.8#276
Improvement+4.0#3

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#68
First Shot+0.0#173
After Offensive Rebounds+3.9#11
Layups/Dunks-2.6#276
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#358
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#31
Freethrows+1.9#76
Improvement+0.3#160
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.9% 15.7% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.7% 14.5% 5.3%
Average Seed 9.5 9.5 9.9
.500 or above 57.6% 59.9% 30.8%
.500 or above in Conference 31.4% 32.5% 17.9%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 12.8% 12.3% 18.7%
First Four4.8% 5.0% 2.5%
First Round12.3% 13.0% 4.1%
Second Round4.4% 4.7% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.8% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Missouri St. (Home) - 92.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 42 - 10
Quad 25 - 57 - 15
Quad 34 - 111 - 16
Quad 46 - 017 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 159 Marist W 66-62 84%     1 - 0 +0.7 +0.1 +0.7
  Thu, Nov 6 321 Le Moyne W 74-69 96%     2 - 0 -7.2 -7.3 +0.2
  Mon, Nov 10 55 Santa Clara L 68-87 53%     2 - 1 -12.4 -4.0 -8.0
  Fri, Nov 14 27 @Iowa L 62-81 18%     2 - 2 -1.9 -3.3 +1.5
  Tue, Nov 18 220 Old Dominion W 99-69 90%     3 - 2 +23.4 +16.0 +5.6
  Fri, Nov 21 19 Georgia L 77-78 22%     3 - 3 +14.5 +7.7 +6.9
  Sun, Nov 23 65 West Virginia W 78-68 45%     4 - 3 +18.6 +14.1 +4.8
  Fri, Nov 28 237 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 88-67 91%     5 - 3 +13.5 +7.8 +4.3
  Mon, Dec 1 356 St. Francis (PA) W 96-74 98%     6 - 3 +5.2 +7.5 -4.5
  Fri, Dec 5 68 Cincinnati W 79-74 58%     7 - 3 +10.4 +10.0 +0.1
  Fri, Dec 12 242 Missouri St. W 76-61 92%    
  Wed, Dec 17 45 Creighton L 74-75 47%    
  Sat, Dec 20 85 @Georgetown L 75-77 43%    
  Wed, Dec 31 5 Connecticut L 66-76 18%    
  Sat, Jan 3 121 @DePaul W 74-73 55%    
  Wed, Jan 7 83 @Marquette L 75-77 41%    
  Sat, Jan 10 72 Providence W 83-80 60%    
  Wed, Jan 14 44 Butler L 78-79 47%    
  Wed, Jan 21 45 @Creighton L 71-78 26%    
  Sat, Jan 24 13 St. John's L 76-83 25%    
  Wed, Jan 28 76 @Seton Hall L 68-71 39%    
  Sat, Jan 31 121 DePaul W 77-70 74%    
  Tue, Feb 3 5 @Connecticut L 63-79 8%    
  Mon, Feb 9 13 @St. John's L 73-86 12%    
  Sat, Feb 14 83 Marquette W 78-74 62%    
  Tue, Feb 17 39 Villanova L 69-71 45%    
  Sat, Feb 21 44 @Butler L 75-82 27%    
  Tue, Feb 24 72 @Providence L 80-83 37%    
  Sat, Feb 28 85 Georgetown W 78-74 65%    
  Tue, Mar 3 76 Seton Hall W 71-68 60%    
  Sat, Mar 7 39 @Villanova L 66-74 24%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.9 2.1 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 6.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.2 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.7 4th
5th 0.3 2.7 4.9 3.3 0.7 0.1 11.9 5th
6th 0.3 2.7 5.2 3.5 0.7 0.0 12.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.6 6.5 3.7 0.7 0.1 13.7 7th
8th 0.3 2.4 5.7 4.1 0.7 0.0 13.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.3 3.6 0.7 0.0 12.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 4.5 2.7 0.7 0.0 11.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.0 2.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 7.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.6 5.1 8.7 11.0 12.9 14.3 12.4 11.0 8.2 5.6 3.4 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 91.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-4 27.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 13.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.3% 97.9% 8.4% 89.5% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.7%
15-5 0.9% 97.0% 9.0% 88.0% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.7%
14-6 1.9% 89.5% 8.5% 81.0% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.2 88.6%
13-7 3.4% 77.2% 5.8% 71.5% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.8 75.9%
12-8 5.6% 59.5% 3.5% 56.0% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 0.9 0.0 2.3 58.1%
11-9 8.2% 40.1% 3.1% 37.0% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.4 0.0 4.9 38.2%
10-10 11.0% 18.3% 1.3% 17.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.0 9.0 17.3%
9-11 12.4% 4.0% 0.8% 3.2% 10.9 0.1 0.4 0.1 11.9 3.2%
8-12 14.3% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 14.2 0.2%
7-13 12.9% 0.2% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 12.9
6-14 11.0% 0.4% 0.4% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.9
5-15 8.7% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 8.7
4-16 5.1% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 5.1
3-17 2.6% 2.6
2-18 1.3% 1.3
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.9% 1.4% 13.6% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 2.6 4.3 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.1 13.7%