Providence
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.1#78
Expected Predictive Rating+3.1#127
Pace77.1#29
Improvement+1.6#83

Offense
Total Offense+6.8#46
First Shot+5.7#43
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#103
Layup/Dunks+1.8#108
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#274
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#65
Freethrows+1.8#80
Improvement+1.7#69

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#150
First Shot-0.8#192
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#108
Layups/Dunks+1.5#125
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#67
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#309
Freethrows-0.2#195
Improvement-0.1#186
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 9.9% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.9% 8.5% 2.2%
Average Seed 10.2 9.9 10.4
.500 or above 30.5% 54.2% 27.2%
.500 or above in Conference 17.1% 36.4% 14.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.8% 6.6% 16.0%
First Four1.4% 3.4% 1.1%
First Round2.9% 8.1% 2.2%
Second Round1.0% 3.0% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. John's (Away) - 12.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 11
Quad 23 - 65 - 16
Quad 35 - 110 - 18
Quad 45 - 015 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 326 Holy Cross W 89-79 96%     1 - 0 -2.9 +0.0 -3.9
  Sat, Nov 8 74 Virginia Tech L 101-107 OT 48%     1 - 1 +1.7 +9.5 -6.5
  Tue, Nov 11 240 Penn W 106-81 91%     2 - 1 +17.4 +16.3 -1.8
  Fri, Nov 14 73 @Colorado L 88-97 36%     2 - 2 +1.7 +7.7 -4.9
  Tue, Nov 18 335 New Hampshire W 98-66 96%     3 - 2 +18.4 +22.3 -3.5
  Sat, Nov 22 126 Penn St. W 77-65 68%     4 - 2 +14.3 +2.9 +11.3
  Thu, Nov 27 46 Wisconsin L 83-104 35%     4 - 3 -9.9 +3.3 -10.1
  Fri, Nov 28 12 Florida L 78-90 15%     4 - 4 +6.0 +10.9 -4.4
  Tue, Dec 2 357 Fairleigh Dickinson W 94-64 98%     5 - 4 +12.5 +17.4 -3.0
  Sat, Dec 6 119 Rhode Island W 90-71 75%     6 - 4 +19.1 +17.9 +1.2
  Tue, Dec 9 226 Brown W 86-79 90%     7 - 4 +0.0 +6.7 -7.3
  Sat, Dec 13 50 @Butler L 110-113 2OT 27%     7 - 5 0 - 1 +10.3 +22.9 -12.0
  Fri, Dec 19 54 Seton Hall L 67-72 52%     7 - 6 0 - 2 +1.5 +1.1 +0.3
  Sat, Jan 3 19 @St. John's L 78-90 12%    
  Wed, Jan 7 7 Connecticut L 71-82 14%    
  Sat, Jan 10 97 @Xavier L 82-83 44%    
  Tue, Jan 13 32 Villanova L 74-78 36%    
  Fri, Jan 16 36 Creighton L 79-82 38%    
  Mon, Jan 19 105 @Marquette L 82-83 49%    
  Sat, Jan 24 99 Georgetown W 85-80 66%    
  Tue, Jan 27 7 @Connecticut L 68-85 5%    
  Fri, Jan 30 32 @Villanova L 71-81 18%    
  Wed, Feb 4 50 Butler L 84-85 49%    
  Sat, Feb 7 115 DePaul W 82-75 73%    
  Wed, Feb 11 54 @Seton Hall L 72-77 30%    
  Sat, Feb 14 19 St. John's L 81-87 28%    
  Sat, Feb 21 115 @DePaul W 79-78 53%    
  Tue, Feb 24 97 Xavier W 85-80 66%    
  Sat, Feb 28 36 @Creighton L 76-85 20%    
  Wed, Mar 4 105 Marquette W 86-80 70%    
  Sat, Mar 7 99 @Georgetown L 82-83 45%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.3 2.2 0.6 0.1 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.5 5.5 3.3 0.8 0.0 13.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.6 7.8 4.1 0.9 0.0 18.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 5.1 7.5 3.7 0.4 0.0 17.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.8 6.7 2.9 0.4 0.0 15.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.6 5.0 2.1 0.2 0.0 12.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.8 2.7 1.0 0.1 8.5 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.0 7.2 11.6 14.8 15.9 15.6 11.9 8.2 4.7 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 42.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 27.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.9% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 95.0% 5.0% 90.0% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.7%
14-6 0.4% 74.4% 8.5% 65.8% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 72.0%
13-7 1.1% 60.4% 3.6% 56.8% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 58.9%
12-8 2.5% 39.6% 4.8% 34.7% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.5 36.5%
11-9 4.7% 15.7% 2.5% 13.2% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 3.9 13.6%
10-10 8.2% 5.8% 1.7% 4.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 7.7 4.3%
9-11 11.9% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.7 0.3%
8-12 15.6% 0.6% 0.6% 11.7 0.0 0.1 15.5
7-13 15.9% 0.4% 0.4% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.8
6-14 14.8% 0.3% 0.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 14.7
5-15 11.6% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 11.5
4-16 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.2
3-17 4.0% 4.0
2-18 1.6% 1.6
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.7% 0.8% 2.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 96.3 2.9%