Providence
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.6#65
Expected Predictive Rating+5.8#100
Pace76.9#34
Improvement+2.2#46

Offense
Total Offense+6.8#48
First Shot+5.6#41
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#111
Layup/Dunks+1.5#130
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#265
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#52
Freethrows+1.0#127
Improvement+1.3#81

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#116
First Shot+0.3#163
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#85
Layups/Dunks+3.8#57
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#127
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#345
Freethrows+1.3#108
Improvement+0.9#110
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.2% 16.9% 6.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 14.5% 15.1% 5.6%
Average Seed 9.4 9.4 9.7
.500 or above 56.4% 58.4% 30.5%
.500 or above in Conference 42.5% 43.6% 28.6%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.0% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 6.9% 6.5% 11.5%
First Four4.5% 4.7% 1.9%
First Round13.8% 14.4% 5.6%
Second Round5.9% 6.2% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.2% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Brown (Home) - 92.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 52 - 11
Quad 25 - 47 - 15
Quad 34 - 111 - 16
Quad 45 - 017 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 286 Holy Cross W 89-79 95%     1 - 0 -0.1 +1.8 -2.9
  Sat, Nov 8 67 Virginia Tech L 101-107 OT 50%     1 - 1 +2.5 +10.1 -6.3
  Tue, Nov 11 248 Penn W 106-81 93%     2 - 1 +17.1 +15.3 -1.0
  Fri, Nov 14 63 @Colorado L 88-97 38%     2 - 2 +2.7 +7.5 -3.8
  Tue, Nov 18 335 New Hampshire W 98-66 97%     3 - 2 +18.4 +21.5 -2.8
  Sat, Nov 22 96 Penn St. W 77-65 63%     4 - 2 +17.3 +4.2 +13.0
  Thu, Nov 27 30 Wisconsin L 83-104 31%     4 - 3 -7.4 +4.2 -8.7
  Fri, Nov 28 14 Florida L 78-90 19%     4 - 4 +6.0 +11.0 -4.4
  Tue, Dec 2 362 Fairleigh Dickinson W 94-64 98%     5 - 4 +12.2 +17.2 -3.0
  Sat, Dec 6 116 Rhode Island W 90-71 78%     6 - 4 +19.3 +17.9 +1.4
  Tue, Dec 9 226 Brown W 81-66 93%    
  Sat, Dec 13 55 @Butler L 82-87 34%    
  Fri, Dec 19 64 Seton Hall W 76-73 61%    
  Sat, Jan 3 16 @St. John's L 78-90 14%    
  Wed, Jan 7 6 Connecticut L 72-81 20%    
  Sat, Jan 10 77 @Xavier L 80-82 43%    
  Tue, Jan 13 38 Villanova L 75-76 46%    
  Fri, Jan 16 43 Creighton W 81-80 50%    
  Mon, Jan 19 88 @Marquette L 82-83 48%    
  Sat, Jan 24 86 Georgetown W 84-79 68%    
  Tue, Jan 27 6 @Connecticut L 69-84 8%    
  Fri, Jan 30 38 @Villanova L 72-79 26%    
  Wed, Feb 4 55 Butler W 85-84 55%    
  Sat, Feb 7 134 DePaul W 84-74 81%    
  Wed, Feb 11 64 @Seton Hall L 73-76 39%    
  Sat, Feb 14 16 St. John's L 81-87 30%    
  Sat, Feb 21 134 @DePaul W 81-77 63%    
  Tue, Feb 24 77 Xavier W 83-79 64%    
  Sat, Feb 28 43 @Creighton L 77-83 30%    
  Wed, Mar 4 88 Marquette W 85-79 69%    
  Sat, Mar 7 86 @Georgetown L 81-82 47%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 2.7 2.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.5 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 4.7 3.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 5.5 4.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 13.6 5th
6th 0.2 2.4 6.1 4.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 14.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.2 5.9 4.0 0.9 0.1 13.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.3 3.9 0.8 0.0 12.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.0 3.4 0.9 0.0 10.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.7 1.9 0.5 0.0 7.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.8 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.2 5.4 8.2 11.7 13.3 13.5 12.8 11.2 7.8 5.2 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 89.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0
17-3 72.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1
16-4 50.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1
15-5 19.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.3% 100.0% 18.7% 81.3% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.6% 96.7% 14.7% 82.1% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.2%
15-5 1.5% 96.1% 9.1% 87.0% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 95.7%
14-6 3.0% 84.4% 5.6% 78.8% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.5 83.5%
13-7 5.2% 68.9% 5.5% 63.4% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.0 1.6 67.1%
12-8 7.8% 44.1% 3.3% 40.9% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.2 0.0 4.4 42.2%
11-9 11.2% 23.7% 3.4% 20.3% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.5 0.1 8.5 21.0%
10-10 12.8% 8.2% 2.0% 6.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 11.8 6.4%
9-11 13.5% 2.1% 1.3% 0.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 13.2 0.9%
8-12 13.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.2 0.0%
7-13 11.7% 0.5% 0.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.6
6-14 8.2% 0.5% 0.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 8.1
5-15 5.4% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 5.4
4-16 3.2% 3.2
3-17 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.2% 2.0% 14.2% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.2 4.1 4.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 83.8 14.5%