Cincinnati
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.3#27
Expected Predictive Rating+14.0#37
Pace66.7#241
Improvement-2.2#309

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#52
First Shot+3.3#92
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#54
Layup/Dunks+11.3#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#322
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#157
Freethrows-6.0#363
Improvement-2.6#341

Defense
Total Defense+7.7#12
First Shot+8.4#5
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#238
Layups/Dunks+1.4#122
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#225
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#31
Freethrows+2.7#31
Improvement+0.4#159
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.5% 2.2% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 4.8% 6.7% 2.4%
Top 4 Seed 17.9% 23.6% 10.9%
Top 6 Seed 36.9% 45.4% 26.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 78.0% 84.9% 69.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 76.9% 83.9% 68.4%
Average Seed 6.7 6.3 7.3
.500 or above 95.9% 98.1% 93.0%
.500 or above in Conference 72.2% 76.6% 66.8%
Conference Champion 5.1% 6.3% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 1.0% 1.8%
First Four5.7% 4.8% 6.7%
First Round75.3% 82.5% 66.3%
Second Round49.3% 56.1% 40.7%
Sweet Sixteen21.3% 25.4% 16.4%
Elite Eight8.9% 10.7% 6.5%
Final Four3.5% 4.5% 2.4%
Championship Game1.4% 1.8% 0.9%
National Champion0.5% 0.6% 0.4%

Next Game: Dayton (Neutral) - 55.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 45 - 8
Quad 27 - 212 - 11
Quad 33 - 015 - 11
Quad 46 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 109-54 99%     1 - 0 +34.8 +16.1 +15.2
  Nov 08, 2024 279   Morehead St. W 83-56 97%     2 - 0 +17.8 +15.6 +5.5
  Nov 15, 2024 243   Nicholls St. W 86-49 96%     3 - 0 +29.4 +16.1 +15.8
  Nov 19, 2024 216   @ Northern Kentucky W 76-60 88%     4 - 0 +16.3 +11.4 +6.2
  Nov 23, 2024 110   @ Georgia Tech W 81-58 73%     5 - 0 +29.9 +13.4 +16.7
  Nov 27, 2024 275   Alabama St. W 77-59 97%     6 - 0 +9.0 -1.6 +10.6
  Dec 03, 2024 48   @ Villanova L 60-68 49%     6 - 1 +5.5 +3.0 +0.8
  Dec 08, 2024 254   Howard W 84-67 97%     7 - 1 +8.8 +5.5 +3.5
  Dec 14, 2024 53   Xavier W 68-65 73%     8 - 1 +10.0 -0.7 +10.7
  Dec 20, 2024 38   Dayton W 71-69 55%    
  Dec 22, 2024 287   Grambling St. W 79-56 98%    
  Dec 30, 2024 64   @ Kansas St. W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 04, 2025 21   Arizona W 76-74 57%    
  Jan 07, 2025 12   @ Baylor L 68-74 30%    
  Jan 11, 2025 10   Kansas L 71-72 46%    
  Jan 15, 2025 73   @ Colorado W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 18, 2025 61   Arizona St. W 74-67 75%    
  Jan 21, 2025 25   Texas Tech W 71-69 59%    
  Jan 25, 2025 44   @ BYU L 73-74 47%    
  Jan 28, 2025 66   @ Utah W 73-71 57%    
  Feb 02, 2025 42   West Virginia W 71-66 67%    
  Feb 05, 2025 82   @ Central Florida W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 08, 2025 44   BYU W 76-71 68%    
  Feb 11, 2025 66   Utah W 76-68 76%    
  Feb 15, 2025 5   @ Iowa St. L 68-77 20%    
  Feb 19, 2025 42   @ West Virginia L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 22, 2025 86   TCU W 73-63 82%    
  Feb 25, 2025 12   Baylor W 72-71 51%    
  Mar 01, 2025 6   @ Houston L 59-68 22%    
  Mar 05, 2025 64   Kansas St. W 74-66 75%    
  Mar 08, 2025 85   @ Oklahoma St. W 76-72 64%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.1 1.9 0.5 0.0 8.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.1 2.1 0.4 0.0 9.7 3rd
4th 0.4 2.7 4.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.0 3.1 0.5 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 5.0 3.6 0.6 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.9 4.0 0.9 0.0 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.4 4.5 1.4 0.1 8.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 3.8 1.9 0.2 0.0 7.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.5 2.3 0.4 0.0 5.7 10th
11th 0.1 1.4 2.3 0.6 0.0 4.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.9 1.0 0.1 3.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.2 2.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.9 5.0 7.4 9.9 12.2 13.1 13.0 11.4 9.3 6.5 3.9 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 93.3% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
17-3 71.4% 1.4    0.9 0.5 0.0
16-4 40.1% 1.6    0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
15-5 15.1% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.1% 5.1 2.4 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 23.6% 76.4% 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.7% 100.0% 24.4% 75.6% 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.9% 100.0% 18.5% 81.5% 2.3 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.9% 100.0% 14.7% 85.3% 2.9 0.4 1.0 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.5% 100.0% 12.7% 87.2% 3.8 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 9.3% 99.9% 8.8% 91.1% 4.8 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.4 2.5 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 11.4% 99.7% 5.8% 93.9% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 3.2 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-8 13.0% 98.0% 4.5% 93.6% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.7 3.2 2.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 97.9%
11-9 13.1% 94.1% 2.6% 91.5% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.5 3.2 2.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.8 93.9%
10-10 12.2% 86.1% 1.6% 84.5% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.1 2.8 2.6 1.2 0.0 1.7 85.9%
9-11 9.9% 61.1% 0.8% 60.3% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.4 0.2 3.8 60.8%
8-12 7.4% 28.8% 0.5% 28.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.3 0.2 5.2 28.4%
7-13 5.0% 7.3% 0.2% 7.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 4.6 7.0%
6-14 2.9% 1.2% 1.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 2.9 1.2%
5-15 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.1%
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 78.0% 4.7% 73.3% 6.7 1.5 3.2 5.7 7.5 8.8 10.2 10.0 9.6 8.4 7.0 5.6 0.5 22.0 76.9%