Arizona
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.3#21
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#109
Pace78.5#16
Improvement+0.9#120

Offense
Total Offense+7.2#29
First Shot+4.1#66
After Offensive Rebound+3.1#30
Layup/Dunks+8.7#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#274
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#320
Freethrows+1.9#77
Improvement-0.5#220

Defense
Total Defense+7.1#19
First Shot+6.8#18
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#158
Layups/Dunks+8.0#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#303
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#203
Freethrows+0.6#145
Improvement+1.3#77
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.2% 1.3% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 3.4% 3.7% 1.0%
Top 4 Seed 13.4% 14.4% 5.3%
Top 6 Seed 28.1% 29.7% 14.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61.0% 63.2% 41.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 58.3% 60.6% 39.1%
Average Seed 6.8 6.8 7.6
.500 or above 74.4% 77.0% 52.0%
.500 or above in Conference 74.3% 75.5% 63.5%
Conference Champion 6.0% 6.4% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.9% 2.1%
First Four6.7% 6.7% 6.6%
First Round58.4% 60.6% 38.7%
Second Round41.0% 42.8% 25.4%
Sweet Sixteen20.0% 21.0% 10.9%
Elite Eight9.1% 9.7% 4.4%
Final Four4.2% 4.4% 1.9%
Championship Game1.7% 1.8% 0.8%
National Champion0.7% 0.8% 0.4%

Next Game: Samford (Home) - 89.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 93 - 9
Quad 1b3 - 46 - 12
Quad 25 - 211 - 14
Quad 34 - 015 - 15
Quad 44 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 352   Canisius W 93-64 99%     1 - 0 +13.3 +7.9 +4.6
  Nov 09, 2024 318   Old Dominion W 102-44 98%     2 - 0 +46.2 +17.8 +25.3
  Nov 15, 2024 35   @ Wisconsin L 88-103 47%     2 - 1 +0.1 +6.9 -4.6
  Nov 22, 2024 2   Duke L 55-69 37%     2 - 2 +3.8 -6.4 +9.7
  Nov 27, 2024 124   Davidson W 104-71 87%     3 - 2 +35.3 +18.5 +13.1
  Nov 28, 2024 37   Oklahoma L 77-82 59%     3 - 3 +6.9 +10.0 -3.0
  Nov 29, 2024 42   West Virginia L 76-83 OT 61%     3 - 4 +4.4 +6.8 -2.2
  Dec 07, 2024 210   Southern Utah W 102-66 96%     4 - 4 +30.6 +16.4 +10.8
  Dec 14, 2024 17   UCLA L 54-57 47%     4 - 5 +12.0 -3.1 +14.9
  Dec 18, 2024 109   Samford W 94-81 90%    
  Dec 21, 2024 219   Central Michigan W 87-67 97%    
  Dec 30, 2024 86   TCU W 80-69 85%    
  Jan 04, 2025 27   @ Cincinnati L 74-76 43%    
  Jan 07, 2025 42   @ West Virginia L 75-76 50%    
  Jan 11, 2025 82   Central Florida W 83-72 84%    
  Jan 14, 2025 12   Baylor W 79-78 55%    
  Jan 18, 2025 25   @ Texas Tech L 76-78 41%    
  Jan 21, 2025 85   @ Oklahoma St. W 84-79 67%    
  Jan 25, 2025 73   Colorado W 82-72 81%    
  Jan 27, 2025 5   Iowa St. L 79-81 42%    
  Feb 01, 2025 61   @ Arizona St. W 79-77 58%    
  Feb 04, 2025 44   @ BYU W 81-80 51%    
  Feb 08, 2025 25   Texas Tech W 79-75 62%    
  Feb 11, 2025 64   @ Kansas St. W 78-75 60%    
  Feb 15, 2025 6   Houston L 69-71 44%    
  Feb 17, 2025 12   @ Baylor L 76-81 34%    
  Feb 22, 2025 44   BYU W 84-78 72%    
  Feb 26, 2025 66   Utah W 85-76 79%    
  Mar 01, 2025 5   @ Iowa St. L 76-84 23%    
  Mar 04, 2025 61   Arizona St. W 82-74 77%    
  Mar 08, 2025 10   @ Kansas L 75-81 29%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.0 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 6.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.2 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 8.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 10.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.8 2.4 0.3 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.4 3.0 0.5 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 5.0 3.8 0.7 0.0 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.8 4.2 1.0 0.1 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.5 4.3 1.4 0.1 8.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 3.6 1.9 0.1 0.0 6.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.3 0.4 0.0 5.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.2 0.6 0.0 4.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.8 0.1 3.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.5 7.0 9.7 12.0 13.3 13.5 11.8 9.7 6.9 4.1 2.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 99.2% 0.3    0.2 0.0
18-2 97.0% 0.7    0.6 0.1 0.0
17-3 77.6% 1.5    1.0 0.5 0.0
16-4 48.3% 2.0    0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-5 17.4% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.0% 6.0 3.0 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 1.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 34.6% 65.4% 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.7% 100.0% 30.7% 69.3% 1.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.0% 100.0% 22.7% 77.3% 2.5 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.1% 100.0% 19.5% 80.5% 3.3 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.9% 99.9% 17.1% 82.8% 4.4 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.0 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 9.7% 99.7% 12.0% 87.7% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.5 2.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-7 11.8% 98.0% 7.7% 90.3% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.6 3.4 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.2 97.8%
12-8 13.5% 90.4% 5.2% 85.2% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.1 2.9 2.5 1.9 0.8 0.0 1.3 89.9%
11-9 13.3% 69.2% 2.5% 66.8% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.5 3.1 0.2 4.1 68.5%
10-10 12.0% 30.0% 2.0% 28.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.9 0.5 0.0 8.4 28.6%
9-11 9.7% 6.3% 1.6% 4.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 9.1 4.8%
8-12 7.0% 1.5% 0.9% 0.5% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.9 0.6%
7-13 4.5% 0.7% 0.7% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5
6-14 2.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 2.6
5-15 1.2% 1.2
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 61.0% 6.3% 54.6% 6.8 1.2 2.2 4.1 5.9 7.1 7.6 8.2 6.8 5.5 5.2 6.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 39.0 58.3%