Arizona
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.5#8
Expected Predictive Rating+2.5#146
Pace78.5#21
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.5#10
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#11
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 5.6% 7.0% 3.1%
#1 Seed 20.2% 24.8% 12.5%
Top 2 Seed 37.2% 44.4% 25.3%
Top 4 Seed 63.3% 70.8% 50.6%
Top 6 Seed 77.7% 84.1% 66.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 91.5% 95.0% 85.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 90.1% 94.0% 84.0%
Average Seed 3.7 3.4 4.4
.500 or above 95.4% 97.8% 91.4%
.500 or above in Conference 86.9% 90.1% 81.7%
Conference Champion 18.9% 22.3% 13.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 0.8%
First Four2.2% 1.4% 3.4%
First Round90.7% 94.4% 84.4%
Second Round78.3% 83.6% 69.4%
Sweet Sixteen51.8% 57.1% 42.9%
Elite Eight30.5% 34.6% 23.6%
Final Four17.0% 20.0% 12.0%
Championship Game9.5% 11.3% 6.3%
National Champion5.1% 6.3% 3.2%

Next Game: Wisconsin (Away) - 62.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 65 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 29 - 8
Quad 25 - 115 - 9
Quad 33 - 018 - 9
Quad 44 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 318   Canisius W 93-64 99%     1 - 0 +17.3 +11.1 +5.4
  Nov 09, 2024 289   Old Dominion W 102-44 99%     2 - 0 +48.3 +18.1 +27.1
  Nov 15, 2024 38   @ Wisconsin W 77-74 63%    
  Nov 22, 2024 6   Duke W 80-78 59%    
  Nov 27, 2024 130   Davidson W 84-68 92%    
  Dec 07, 2024 214   Southern Utah W 91-68 98%    
  Dec 13, 2024 30   UCLA W 73-68 68%    
  Dec 18, 2024 141   Samford W 95-76 95%    
  Dec 21, 2024 201   Central Michigan W 85-62 98%    
  Dec 30, 2024 53   TCU W 85-74 84%    
  Jan 04, 2025 22   @ Cincinnati W 78-76 56%    
  Jan 07, 2025 57   @ West Virginia W 81-75 69%    
  Jan 11, 2025 66   Central Florida W 84-72 85%    
  Jan 14, 2025 13   Baylor W 80-75 68%    
  Jan 18, 2025 14   @ Texas Tech L 76-77 48%    
  Jan 21, 2025 87   @ Oklahoma St. W 82-74 75%    
  Jan 25, 2025 76   Colorado W 83-70 87%    
  Jan 27, 2025 11   Iowa St. W 77-73 64%    
  Feb 01, 2025 72   @ Arizona St. W 81-74 72%    
  Feb 04, 2025 32   @ BYU W 81-79 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 14   Texas Tech W 80-74 68%    
  Feb 11, 2025 42   @ Kansas St. W 78-74 63%    
  Feb 15, 2025 2   Houston W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 17, 2025 13   @ Baylor L 77-78 48%    
  Feb 22, 2025 32   BYU W 84-76 76%    
  Feb 26, 2025 51   Utah W 86-75 82%    
  Mar 01, 2025 11   @ Iowa St. L 74-76 44%    
  Mar 04, 2025 72   Arizona St. W 84-71 86%    
  Mar 08, 2025 5   @ Kansas L 79-83 35%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.8 5.6 4.3 2.3 0.7 18.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.4 4.8 2.1 0.5 0.0 15.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.0 3.7 1.0 0.1 13.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.7 3.3 0.7 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 4.1 3.1 0.7 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.0 3.1 0.7 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.3 2.0 2.8 0.8 0.1 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.1 3.5 5.1 6.8 8.7 10.6 11.9 12.0 11.7 9.7 7.7 4.8 2.3 0.7 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 98.7% 2.3    2.1 0.1
18-2 90.0% 4.3    3.6 0.7 0.0
17-3 72.1% 5.6    3.5 1.8 0.2
16-4 39.6% 3.8    1.6 1.6 0.5 0.1
15-5 15.7% 1.8    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.9% 18.9 12.0 5.2 1.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 100.0% 59.2% 40.8% 1.1 0.7 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.3% 100.0% 44.8% 55.2% 1.1 2.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 4.8% 100.0% 39.7% 60.3% 1.2 3.8 0.9 0.1 100.0%
17-3 7.7% 100.0% 31.5% 68.5% 1.4 5.1 2.3 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-4 9.7% 100.0% 25.1% 74.9% 1.7 4.4 3.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 11.7% 100.0% 19.4% 80.6% 2.3 2.8 4.5 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 12.0% 100.0% 14.4% 85.6% 3.0 1.1 3.3 4.1 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 11.9% 100.0% 9.7% 90.3% 3.8 0.4 1.4 3.4 3.5 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 10.6% 99.8% 5.7% 94.2% 4.8 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.7 2.7 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-9 8.7% 98.2% 4.4% 93.8% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.1%
10-10 6.8% 92.9% 2.3% 90.6% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.5 92.7%
9-11 5.1% 72.1% 1.4% 70.7% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.4 71.7%
8-12 3.5% 38.2% 0.6% 37.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.1 37.9%
7-13 2.1% 12.4% 0.5% 11.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.9 12.0%
6-14 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.4%
5-15 0.7% 0.7
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 91.5% 14.6% 76.9% 3.7 20.2 17.0 14.6 11.4 8.5 5.9 4.5 3.0 2.1 1.8 2.1 0.5 0.0 8.5 90.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 95.5 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 95.0 5.0