Arizona
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +23.3 #2
Expected Predictive Rating +31.6 #1
Pace 76.0 #32
Improvement +0.0 #189

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #5 A+ A- B+ A- C
Defense #4 A+ A+ B- A- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #23 1.40 #5 +9.9 #3
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #69 0.86 #53 +3.6 #33
Three Pointers 28% #362 1.14 #38 -5.2 #328
1st FG Attempt 1.18 #12 +8.4 #12
Freethrows 21.1 #24 74% #127 15.6 #27
Second Chance 41.1% #5 0.99 #249 0.41 #41
Turnovers 14.1% #51
Total Offense +11.7 #5

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #344 0.93 #7 +8.2 #5
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #6 0.67 #52 -2.6 #344
Three Pointers 39% #250 0.93 #74 +2.9 #73
1st FG Attempt 0.85 #6 +8.6 #6
Freethrows 14.4 #35 71% #93 10.2 #33
Second Chance 22.5% #6 0.89 #26 0.20 #4
Turnovers 18.2% #77
Total Defense +11.6 #4

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #222 -3.8% #7
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 16.8% #9 -13.4% #13
Possession Length 15.1 #25 17.9 #261
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.30 #5 0.11 #28
Improvement -0.3 #196 +0.3 #170

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 25.0% 25.6% 16.7%
#1 Seed 70.7% 71.7% 56.6%
Top 2 Seed 95.8% 96.3% 89.0%
Top 4 Seed 99.9% 99.9% 99.6%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.3 1.3 1.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 57.8% 59.7% 33.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round99.4% 99.4% 99.3%
Sweet Sixteen81.4% 81.6% 77.6%
Elite Eight56.4% 56.8% 51.5%
Final Four36.3% 36.7% 31.6%
Championship Game21.9% 22.2% 18.1%
National Champion12.9% 13.1% 10.0%

Next Game: West Virginia (Home) - 93.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a8 - 38 - 3
Quad 1b7 - 115 - 3
Quad 27 - 021 - 4
Quad 32 - 023 - 4
Quad 47 - 030 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 10 Florida W 93 - 87 61% +1  1 - 0 +26 +17 A+ B C- +9 B+ A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 7 233 Utah Tech W 93 - 67 99% +11  2 - 0 +19 +16 A+ D- C- +3 A+ C B
 Tue, Nov 11 315 Northern Arizona W 84 - 49 100% +24  3 - 0 +23 +2 B- B F +20 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 36 UCLA W 69 - 65 82% -1  4 - 0 +17 +5 B A- D+ +13 C+ A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 7 @Connecticut W 71 - 67 49% +4  5 - 0 +27 +19 C A+ A +9 A A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 280 Denver W 103 - 73 99% +23  6 - 0 +20 +12 A+ C+ F +6 A C A+
 Sat, Nov 29 291 Norfolk St. W 98 - 61 99% +17  7 - 0 +27 +15 B+ A- A- +9 C+ B C+
 Sat, Dec 6 27 Auburn W 97 - 68 86% +15  8 - 0 +41 +22 A+ A- B +17 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 17 Alabama W 96 - 75 70% +7  9 - 0 +39 +21 A+ C A+ +17 B- A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 258 Abilene Christian W 96 - 62 99% +21  10 - 0 +26 +16 A+ A+ F +8 A A B-
 Sat, Dec 20 46 San Diego St. W 68 - 45 87% +5  11 - 0 +34 +10 B A A- +26 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 269 Bethune-Cookman W 107 - 71 99% +15  12 - 0 +27 +17 A+ B F +5 F A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 170 South Dakota St. W 99 - 71 99% +16  13 - 0 +24 +14 A+ A+ D- +8 A+ C- B-
 Sat, Jan 3 104 @Utah W 97 - 78 92% +15  14 - 0 1 - 0 +27 +18 A- A+ A +7 A+ C+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 85 Kansas St. W 101 - 76 95% +14  15 - 0 2 - 0 +29 +14 B A+ A+ +11 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 45 @TCU W 86 - 73 81% +12  16 - 0 3 - 0 +27 +17 A+ B+ A+ +9 A+ A C+
 Wed, Jan 14 88 Arizona St. W 89 - 82 96% +3  17 - 0 4 - 0 +10 +15 B A+ A+ -4 D+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 53 @Central Florida W 84 - 77 82% +6  18 - 0 5 - 0 +21 +12 A+ F B +9 A+ C B
 Wed, Jan 21 49 Cincinnati W 77 - 51 92% +7  19 - 0 6 - 0 +34 +19 D- A+ A+ +17 A+ A- A+
 Sat, Jan 24 52 West Virginia W 80 - 64 93%
 Mon, Jan 26 12 @BYU W 82 - 80 56%
 Sat, Jan 31 88 @Arizona St. W 90 - 76 90%
 Sat, Feb 7 61 Oklahoma St. W 94 - 77 95%
 Mon, Feb 9 19 @Kansas W 79 - 76 61%
 Sat, Feb 14 15 Texas Tech W 83 - 75 78%
 Wed, Feb 18 12 BYU W 85 - 77 76%
 Sat, Feb 21 4 @Houston L 72 - 73 45%
 Tue, Feb 24 41 @Baylor W 85 - 77 77%
 Sat, Feb 28 19 Kansas W 82 - 73 80%
 Mon, Mar 2 8 Iowa St. W 81 - 75 71%
 Sat, Mar 7 78 @Colorado W 87 - 74 88%
Totals 28 - 3 15 - 3 +23 +12 A+ A- B+ +12 A+ A+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.6 14.5 20.5 14.6 4.4 57.8 1st
2nd 0.0 2.0 9.9 9.1 2.8 0.2 24.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.8 3.9 0.4 10.0 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 2.7 0.3 4.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 1.3 0.3 2.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 4.1 10.0 17.6 24.1 23.4 14.8 4.4 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.4    4.4
17-1 99.0% 14.6    13.6 1.1
16-2 88.0% 20.5    15.1 5.3 0.2
15-3 60.3% 14.5    5.8 6.9 1.8 0.1
14-4 20.2% 3.6    0.5 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.0
13-5 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 57.8% 57.8 39.4 14.5 3.3 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.4% 100.0% 46.7% 53.3% 1.1 4.0 0.4 100.0%
17-1 14.8% 100.0% 42.1% 57.9% 1.1 13.1 1.7 0.0 100.0%
16-2 23.4% 100.0% 38.3% 61.7% 1.2 19.5 3.8 0.0 100.0%
15-3 24.1% 100.0% 32.2% 67.8% 1.3 17.7 6.1 0.3 100.0%
14-4 17.6% 100.0% 28.2% 71.8% 1.4 10.8 6.3 0.5 0.0 100.0%
13-5 10.0% 100.0% 22.8% 77.2% 1.7 4.2 4.7 1.0 0.1 100.0%
12-6 4.1% 100.0% 17.8% 82.2% 2.1 1.1 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 1.3% 100.0% 12.5% 87.5% 2.7 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
10-8 0.3% 100.0% 7.6% 92.4% 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 33.2% 66.8% 1.3 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.1% 100.0% 1.1 93.4 6.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9% 100.0% 1.1 89.8 10.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0% 100.0% 1.1 92.1 7.9