Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Arizona 100.0%   1   12 - 0 0 - 0 27 - 4 14 - 4 +23.3      +11.2 10 +12.1 2 75.2 43 +30.2 1 0.0 1
3 Iowa St. 100.0%   1   12 - 0 0 - 0 27 - 4 14 - 4 +22.2      +10.6 12 +11.6 4 72.9 84 +29.1 2 0.0 1
8 Houston 99.7%   3   11 - 1 0 - 0 25 - 6 13 - 5 +20.3      +10.0 15 +10.3 8 61.4 355 +20.9 13 0.0 1
11 BYU 99.7%   3   12 - 1 0 - 0 25 - 6 13 - 5 +19.6      +11.5 7 +8.2 15 70.3 159 +23.0 11 0.0 1
17 Kansas 96.9%   4   10 - 3 0 - 0 21 - 10 11 - 7 +17.4      +6.6 48 +10.9 6 68.9 199 +18.4 17 0.0 1
24 Texas Tech 88.5%   6   9 - 3 0 - 0 20 - 11 10 - 8 +15.2      +10.3 14 +4.9 52 67.3 243 +17.8 20 0.0 1
27 Baylor 81.8%   7   9 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 11 10 - 8 +14.8      +11.4 8 +3.4 77 72.3 102 +14.3 35 0.0 1
49 Central Florida 54.0%   10   11 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 11 8 - 10 +10.4      +7.5 38 +2.9 90 74.3 61 +18.7 16 0.0 1
53 TCU 34.7%   9 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 14 7 - 11 +9.9      +2.6 111 +7.3 25 67.6 234 +10.1 59 0.0 1
55 Oklahoma St. 36.6%   11 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 12 7 - 11 +9.2      +6.4 51 +2.8 95 80.5 8 +16.0 27 0.0 1
58 Kansas St. 22.2%   8 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 15 7 - 11 +8.9      +6.4 52 +2.6 99 78.4 18 +9.0 69 0.0 1
62 West Virginia 9.6%   9 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 15 7 - 11 +8.5      +3.1 100 +5.4 41 62.2 349 +3.3 126 0.0 1
67 Cincinnati 6.6%   7 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 17 6 - 12 +8.2      -1.2 201 +9.5 11 74.9 51 +1.6 146 0.0 1
71 Arizona St. 15.6%   9 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 16 6 - 12 +7.8      +5.7 61 +2.0 107 70.8 145 +11.3 53 0.0 1
73 Colorado 16.2%   10 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 14 6 - 12 +7.7      +6.4 50 +1.3 128 70.6 150 +11.0 55 0.0 1
111 Utah 0.6%   8 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 19 4 - 14 +3.6      +4.0 81 -0.5 177 70.9 138 +3.8 116 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Dec 20 23 Arkansas 85 8 Houston 94   
Sat, Dec 20 4 Duke 81 24 Texas Tech 82   
Sat, Dec 20 73 Colorado 68 81 Stanford 77   
Sat, Dec 20 2 Arizona 68 52 San Diego St. 45   
Sat, Dec 20 186 Florida Gulf Coast 80 49 Central Florida 102   
Sat, Dec 20 258 Eastern Washington 77 111 Utah 101   
Sat, Dec 20 58 Kansas St. 106 291 South Dakota 76   
Sun, Dec 21 67 Cincinnati 65 40 Clemson 68   
Sun, Dec 21 71 Arizona St. 75 154 Oregon St. 78   
Sun, Dec 21 242 Cal St. Fullerton 89 55 Oklahoma St. 94   
Sun, Dec 21 27 Baylor 111 222 Southern 67   
Sun, Dec 21 3 Iowa St. 91 275 Long Beach St. 60   
Sun, Dec 21 341 Florida A&M 56 53 TCU 80   
Mon, Dec 22 140 Davidson 61 17 Kansas 90   
Mon, Dec 22 11 BYU 109 258 Eastern Washington 81   
Mon, Dec 22 2 Arizona 107 269 Bethune-Cookman 71   
Mon, Dec 22 365 Mississippi Valley 51 62 West Virginia 86   
Tue, Dec 23 114 Florida Atlantic 80 49 Central Florida 85   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 28 24 Texas Tech 89 125 Winthrop 73 92%   
Sun, Dec 28 73 Colorado 85 171 Northern Colorado 73 86%   
Sun, Dec 28 58 Kansas St. 96 359 Louisiana Monroe 69 99%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Arizona 2.2 44.6 23.2 14.5 8.7 4.7 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Iowa St. 2.5 34.7 25.6 16.7 10.4 5.9 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston 3.3 20.8 21.2 20.0 15.0 9.8 5.8 3.4 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
BYU 3.7 16.8 17.9 18.4 16.6 12.2 7.6 4.6 2.7 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kansas 5.2 6.8 9.5 12.2 14.9 16.1 13.0 9.5 6.5 4.2 2.9 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1
Texas Tech 6.4 2.4 5.2 8.2 11.1 13.7 14.6 12.7 10.2 7.3 5.1 3.6 2.7 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.2
Baylor 6.9 2.4 4.3 6.6 9.6 12.2 13.3 12.3 10.5 8.2 6.4 4.9 3.7 2.5 1.7 1.1 0.3
Central Florida 9.0 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.1 7.2 9.5 10.8 11.1 10.6 10.0 8.5 7.3 6.4 5.1 3.7 2.0
TCU 9.9 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.8 7.0 8.9 10.3 10.3 9.9 9.9 9.3 8.3 7.4 5.7 3.3
Oklahoma St. 10.7 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.4 4.8 6.9 8.4 9.6 10.2 9.8 10.3 10.1 9.3 8.3 5.4
Kansas St. 10.5 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.3 5.4 7.0 8.9 10.0 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.0 9.0 7.5 4.6
West Virginia 10.6 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.4 5.5 7.3 8.5 9.8 10.5 10.5 10.2 9.7 9.3 7.7 4.6
Cincinnati 11.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.9 5.7 7.1 8.5 9.8 10.6 11.1 11.4 11.3 10.0 6.4
Arizona St. 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 3.8 5.8 7.8 9.1 10.6 11.1 11.0 11.1 10.5 9.0 6.3
Colorado 11.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.8 4.6 6.1 7.8 9.2 10.3 10.5 10.8 10.3 9.9 9.1 6.7
Utah 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.3 3.7 5.1 6.9 9.8 13.5 20.4 35.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Arizona 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.0 4.3 8.5 13.7 18.8 20.4 17.8 10.3 3.0
Iowa St. 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 3.3 5.9 10.6 15.4 19.2 19.4 15.0 7.4 1.8
Houston 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.0 6.3 10.2 14.8 17.9 18.0 14.2 8.9 3.6 0.8
BYU 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 4.6 8.2 12.7 15.7 17.9 16.1 11.9 6.4 2.4 0.5
Kansas 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.8 6.6 10.7 13.9 16.5 15.9 13.3 8.7 5.0 2.2 0.5 0.1
Texas Tech 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.8 4.0 7.1 11.5 14.6 16.7 15.5 12.0 8.3 4.9 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
Baylor 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.0 5.9 8.8 12.6 14.8 15.3 13.5 10.6 7.2 3.8 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Central Florida 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.9 7.9 11.4 14.3 15.5 14.3 11.8 8.0 4.7 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
TCU 7 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.8 6.9 11.2 14.0 15.1 15.0 12.5 9.0 5.7 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Oklahoma St. 7 - 11 0.1 0.9 2.6 5.8 9.7 13.1 15.6 15.1 13.8 10.1 6.4 3.8 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Kansas St. 7 - 11 0.1 0.7 2.2 5.1 9.0 13.1 15.8 15.8 14.2 10.8 6.8 3.7 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
West Virginia 7 - 11 0.1 0.7 2.1 5.2 9.1 13.0 15.7 16.1 13.8 10.4 7.0 4.0 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Cincinnati 6 - 12 0.2 1.1 3.1 7.1 11.5 15.3 16.4 15.6 12.2 8.5 4.9 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arizona St. 6 - 12 0.1 0.9 2.7 6.3 11.0 14.4 17.4 15.9 13.4 8.9 5.2 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Colorado 6 - 12 0.1 0.9 2.9 6.2 10.7 14.2 16.4 15.5 13.1 9.4 5.6 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
Utah 4 - 14 2.6 8.6 15.3 19.2 18.8 14.9 9.8 6.0 2.9 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arizona 44.6% 29.3 11.9 2.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Iowa St. 34.7% 21.1 10.5 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Houston 20.8% 11.1 7.1 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
BYU 16.8% 8.7 5.7 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Kansas 6.8% 3.2 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Texas Tech 2.4% 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Baylor 2.4% 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Central Florida 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
TCU 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
West Virginia 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Colorado 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Utah 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arizona 100.0% 31.5% 68.5% 1   56.0 31.0 9.0 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Iowa St. 100.0% 24.9% 75.1% 1   41.3 33.8 15.2 6.3 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Houston 99.7% 15.9% 83.9% 3   15.0 23.4 22.6 17.3 10.3 5.6 2.8 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.3 99.7%
BYU 99.7% 13.7% 86.1% 3   14.8 24.2 24.5 17.2 9.6 5.1 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 99.7%
Kansas 96.9% 6.5% 90.4% 4   3.9 10.4 17.8 18.8 16.7 11.9 6.8 3.5 2.5 2.4 2.0 0.1 3.1 96.7%
Texas Tech 88.5% 3.3% 85.2% 6   0.8 2.5 7.3 10.5 14.2 15.1 12.1 8.6 6.2 5.4 5.2 0.3 0.0 11.5 88.1%
Baylor 81.8% 2.6% 79.2% 7   0.6 1.8 5.0 8.3 11.9 13.3 12.4 9.8 7.2 5.9 5.3 0.4 0.0 18.2 81.3%
Central Florida 54.0% 0.4% 53.5% 10   0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.4 4.5 6.6 8.5 10.3 10.5 9.3 0.4 46.0 53.8%
TCU 34.7% 0.3% 34.4% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.6 6.7 7.7 7.4 6.2 0.3 65.3 34.5%
Oklahoma St. 36.6% 0.2% 36.4% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.6 5.5 7.1 8.1 8.5 0.5 0.0 63.4 36.5%
Kansas St. 22.2% 0.2% 22.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.9 4.5 5.0 5.3 0.3 0.0 77.8 22.1%
West Virginia 9.6% 0.1% 9.5% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.0 2.9 2.6 0.1 90.4 9.5%
Cincinnati 6.6% 0.1% 6.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.8 2.0 0.1 0.0 93.5 6.5%
Arizona St. 15.6% 0.1% 15.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.1 3.7 4.8 0.3 0.0 84.4 15.6%
Colorado 16.2% 0.1% 16.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.1 4.6 5.1 0.3 83.8 16.1%
Utah 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 99.4 0.6%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arizona 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.9% 80.3% 56.5% 35.2% 20.1% 11.0%
Iowa St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.8% 75.6% 49.5% 28.8% 15.7% 8.0%
Houston 99.7% 0.2% 99.6% 92.8% 63.7% 35.1% 17.8% 8.4% 4.0%
BYU 99.7% 0.2% 99.7% 92.1% 61.8% 32.6% 15.8% 7.3% 3.1%
Kansas 96.9% 2.3% 96.0% 79.7% 44.7% 19.2% 7.9% 3.2% 1.3%
Texas Tech 88.5% 6.1% 85.7% 60.3% 25.6% 9.2% 3.3% 1.1% 0.4%
Baylor 81.8% 6.2% 79.1% 53.8% 21.7% 8.0% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3%
Central Florida 54.0% 10.8% 47.9% 21.9% 4.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
TCU 34.7% 6.9% 31.1% 13.7% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Oklahoma St. 36.6% 9.8% 31.2% 12.9% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Kansas St. 22.2% 6.0% 18.9% 8.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
West Virginia 9.6% 2.9% 8.1% 3.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Cincinnati 6.6% 2.2% 5.4% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arizona St. 15.6% 5.4% 12.6% 4.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado 16.2% 5.9% 12.8% 4.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.6 0.0 1.0 10.1 34.0 37.6 14.8 2.3 0.2 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 8.3 0.1 2.2 17.4 40.0 31.0 8.3 0.9 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 6.5 0.0 0.2 2.4 14.2 34.1 33.8 13.2 2.0 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 99.9% 3.9 0.1 1.3 8.7 25.7 36.1 22.1 5.4 0.6 0.0
Elite Eight 96.1% 2.1 3.9 21.7 39.3 27.5 6.9 0.7 0.0
Final Four 78.3% 1.1 21.7 48.1 26.3 3.7 0.2
Final Game 50.9% 0.6 49.1 44.8 6.2
Champion 28.1% 0.3 71.9 28.1