BYU
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +18.7 #12
Expected Predictive Rating +21.5 #11
Pace 72.8 #79
Improvement -3.0 #312

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #13 B+ A+ A- B- C
Defense #19 A+ C C+ A+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #255 1.37 #12 +2.4 #99
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #169 0.86 #48 +1.3 #108
Three Pointers 43% #139 1.03 #159 +1.6 #128
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #48 +5.2 #48
Freethrows 18.7 #130 75% #77 14.1 #109
Second Chance 37.7% #24 1.25 #14 0.47 #9
Turnovers 13.8% #39
Total Offense +10.5 #13

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #357 1.10 #98 +7.0 #15
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #9 0.61 #14 -1.3 #283
Three Pointers 42% #143 0.82 #7 +3.5 #51
1st FG Attempt 0.83 #4 +9.2 #4
Freethrows 12.7 #9 68% #31 8.6 #9
Second Chance 28.0% #90 1.17 #323 0.33 #207
Turnovers 17.4% #117
Total Defense +8.3 #19

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #220 -3.9% #6
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.5% #36 -14.7% #7
Possession Length 15.0 #21 18.6 #335
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #16 0.14 #82
Improvement -2.3 #303 -0.8 #238

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.1%
#1 Seed 6.5% 6.8% 1.4%
Top 2 Seed 22.0% 22.7% 8.2%
Top 4 Seed 69.7% 70.8% 48.9%
Top 6 Seed 95.0% 95.4% 86.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 99.9% 99.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.8% 99.9% 99.1%
Average Seed 3.8 3.7 4.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.6% 98.0% 89.9%
Conference Champion 9.0% 9.4% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round99.8% 99.9% 98.8%
Second Round90.7% 91.0% 84.3%
Sweet Sixteen55.4% 55.9% 45.0%
Elite Eight26.5% 26.9% 19.0%
Final Four12.1% 12.4% 6.9%
Championship Game5.3% 5.4% 3.5%
National Champion2.3% 2.3% 1.4%

Next Game: Utah (Home) - 95.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b6 - 110 - 7
Quad 26 - 016 - 8
Quad 34 - 020 - 8
Quad 45 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 33 Villanova W 71 - 66 68% +6  1 - 0 +19 +6 C- D+ A+ +13 A+ F C+
 Sat, Nov 8 320 Holy Cross W 98 - 53 99% +28  2 - 0 +32 +17 A+ F A+ +14 A+ C- A
 Tue, Nov 11 295 Delaware W 85 - 68 99% -0  3 - 0 +6 +21 C A+ B+ -12 D+ C+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 7 Connecticut L 84 - 86 43% -9  3 - 1 +18 +18 A+ A+ C +1 F C A+
 Fri, Nov 21 35 Wisconsin W 98 - 70 69% +12  4 - 1 +42 +24 A- A+ A+ +16 A+ B+ A-
 Thu, Nov 27 40 Miami (FL) W 72 - 62 73% +3  5 - 1 +22 +7 B+ C B- +16 A+ C+ C
 Fri, Nov 28 73 Dayton W 83 - 79 85% -0  6 - 1 +12 +12 A+ C+ A -0 D+ B B+
 Wed, Dec 3 142 California Baptist W 66 - 44 94% +18  7 - 1 +23 +27 A+ A+ A+ +7 A+ C+ F
 Tue, Dec 9 32 Clemson W 67 - 64 67% -5  8 - 1 +17 +13 D+ A+ A +4 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 293 UC Riverside W 100 - 53 99% +14  9 - 1 +36 +15 A+ D+ C +18 A+ C A+
 Tue, Dec 16 132 Pacific W 93 - 57 96% +18  10 - 1 +35 +17 B A+ B+ +17 A+ D- A+
 Fri, Dec 19 258 Abilene Christian W 85 - 67 99% +5  11 - 1 +10 +8 A- A+ F +1 A F A
 Mon, Dec 22 243 Eastern Washington W 109 - 81 98% +9  12 - 1 +20 +24 A+ A+ A+ -5 C+ F C
 Sat, Jan 3 85 @Kansas St. W 83 - 73 79% +6  13 - 1 1 - 0 +20 +6 C- A+ F +13 A+ A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 7 88 Arizona St. W 104 - 76 92% +17  14 - 1 2 - 0 +31 +20 A+ B D+ +8 A+ B A+
 Sat, Jan 10 104 @Utah W 89 - 84 85% +4  15 - 1 3 - 0 +13 +13 C A+ C -1 A F D
 Wed, Jan 14 45 TCU W 76 - 70 84% -0  16 - 1 4 - 0 +14 +10 F A+ A+ +4 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 17 15 @Texas Tech L 71 - 84 41% -1  16 - 2 4 - 1 +8 +7 C A- C +1 A- B- C
 Sat, Jan 24 104 Utah W 89 - 72 95%
 Mon, Jan 26 2 Arizona L 80 - 82 44%
 Sat, Jan 31 19 @Kansas L 76 - 78 44%
 Wed, Feb 4 61 @Oklahoma St. W 88 - 81 74%
 Sat, Feb 7 4 Houston W 72 - 71 51%
 Tue, Feb 10 41 @Baylor W 82 - 78 63%
 Sat, Feb 14 78 Colorado W 87 - 73 91%
 Wed, Feb 18 2 @Arizona L 77 - 85 24%
 Sat, Feb 21 8 Iowa St. W 78 - 77 55%
 Tue, Feb 24 53 Central Florida W 86 - 75 85%
 Sat, Feb 28 52 @West Virginia W 74 - 69 68%
 Tue, Mar 3 49 @Cincinnati W 76 - 71 67%
 Sat, Mar 7 15 Texas Tech W 81 - 77 63%
Totals 24 - 7 12 - 6 +19 +10 B+ A+ A- +8 A+ C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.8 4.2 2.4 0.5 9.0 1st
2nd 0.1 2.6 7.3 3.4 0.2 13.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.0 10.2 5.5 0.4 19.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 9.3 6.4 0.4 18.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 7.9 6.8 0.8 0.0 17.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.3 5.0 0.9 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.2 2.0 3.1 0.9 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.6 0.0 2.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.7 10.1 16.5 20.1 20.0 15.1 8.0 2.6 0.5 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 91.1% 2.4    1.6 0.8 0.0
15-3 52.8% 4.2    1.3 2.2 0.8 0.0
14-4 12.0% 1.8    0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0
13-5 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.0% 9.0 3.4 3.5 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.5% 100.0% 35.4% 64.6% 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.6% 100.0% 19.8% 80.2% 1.6 1.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 8.0% 100.0% 22.6% 77.4% 2.0 2.2 3.7 1.8 0.3 100.0%
14-4 15.1% 100.0% 16.3% 83.7% 2.5 1.8 5.3 6.0 1.8 0.2 100.0%
13-5 20.0% 100.0% 11.2% 88.8% 3.2 0.7 3.8 8.3 6.0 1.2 0.1 100.0%
12-6 20.1% 100.0% 7.6% 92.4% 3.9 0.1 1.2 5.5 8.2 4.3 0.7 0.0 100.0%
11-7 16.5% 100.0% 5.0% 95.0% 4.6 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.3 6.1 2.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
10-8 10.1% 100.0% 4.2% 95.8% 5.3 0.3 1.7 3.9 3.0 1.0 0.1 100.0%
9-9 4.7% 99.8% 1.7% 98.1% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 99.8%
8-10 1.8% 98.6% 2.5% 96.1% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.6%
7-11 0.5% 87.1% 1.1% 86.0% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 87.0%
6-12 0.1% 54.5% 54.5% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 54.5%
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.9% 10.1% 89.8% 3.8 0.1 99.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 85.3 14.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.5 50.0 45.5 4.5