Arizona St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.1#61
Expected Predictive Rating+16.9#20
Pace71.5#104
Improvement+0.1#175

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#76
First Shot+4.1#71
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#187
Layup/Dunks-3.6#302
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#85
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#59
Freethrows+1.9#78
Improvement-0.5#228

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#49
First Shot+2.9#91
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#40
Layups/Dunks+4.0#56
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#342
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#214
Freethrows+2.5#41
Improvement+0.6#140
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.5% 2.9% 0.8%
Top 6 Seed 9.4% 10.4% 4.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.2% 44.0% 26.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 40.8% 43.5% 25.7%
Average Seed 8.3 8.2 8.7
.500 or above 70.4% 74.3% 49.0%
.500 or above in Conference 31.9% 33.6% 22.2%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 9.3% 8.6% 13.2%
First Four8.1% 8.4% 6.5%
First Round36.8% 39.4% 22.4%
Second Round18.0% 19.4% 10.0%
Sweet Sixteen5.3% 5.8% 2.6%
Elite Eight1.8% 1.9% 0.8%
Final Four0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Massachusetts (Neutral) - 84.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 44 - 11
Quad 26 - 310 - 14
Quad 34 - 114 - 15
Quad 44 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 231   Idaho St. W 55-48 92%     1 - 0 +0.2 -16.8 +17.4
  Nov 08, 2024 78   Santa Clara W 81-74 58%     2 - 0 +14.1 +10.8 +3.3
  Nov 10, 2024 3   @ Gonzaga L 80-88 10%     2 - 1 +15.2 +14.4 +1.0
  Nov 14, 2024 102   Grand Canyon W 87-76 66%     3 - 1 +15.9 +11.9 +3.4
  Nov 17, 2024 143   St. Thomas W 81-66 85%     4 - 1 +12.8 +6.3 +6.7
  Nov 20, 2024 249   Cal Poly W 93-89 93%     5 - 1 -3.9 +5.2 -9.6
  Nov 28, 2024 71   New Mexico W 85-82 55%     6 - 1 +10.8 +11.5 -0.9
  Nov 29, 2024 41   St. Mary's W 68-64 40%     7 - 1 +15.6 +4.8 +10.9
  Dec 03, 2024 315   San Diego W 90-53 96%     8 - 1 +25.2 +8.5 +14.3
  Dec 14, 2024 8   Florida L 66-83 20%     8 - 2 +0.9 -4.7 +6.8
  Dec 21, 2024 200   Massachusetts W 81-70 85%    
  Dec 31, 2024 44   @ BYU L 74-79 32%    
  Jan 04, 2025 73   Colorado W 75-70 66%    
  Jan 08, 2025 10   @ Kansas L 69-80 15%    
  Jan 11, 2025 12   Baylor L 72-76 36%    
  Jan 14, 2025 82   Central Florida W 76-71 69%    
  Jan 18, 2025 27   @ Cincinnati L 67-74 25%    
  Jan 21, 2025 42   @ West Virginia L 69-74 31%    
  Jan 25, 2025 5   Iowa St. L 72-79 25%    
  Jan 28, 2025 73   @ Colorado L 72-73 45%    
  Feb 01, 2025 21   Arizona L 77-79 42%    
  Feb 04, 2025 64   Kansas St. W 74-71 62%    
  Feb 09, 2025 85   @ Oklahoma St. L 77-78 48%    
  Feb 12, 2025 25   @ Texas Tech L 69-77 24%    
  Feb 15, 2025 86   TCU W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 18, 2025 6   Houston L 63-70 26%    
  Feb 23, 2025 64   @ Kansas St. L 71-74 41%    
  Feb 26, 2025 44   BYU W 77-76 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 66   @ Utah L 75-77 42%    
  Mar 04, 2025 21   @ Arizona L 74-82 23%    
  Mar 08, 2025 25   Texas Tech L 72-74 44%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.5 0.6 0.1 3.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 5.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.3 2.7 0.4 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.0 3.8 1.0 0.1 8.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 4.7 1.9 0.1 8.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 4.7 3.3 0.4 0.0 9.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 3.7 4.5 1.0 0.0 9.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 2.4 4.8 1.9 0.1 9.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.2 2.7 0.3 0.0 8.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.4 3.1 0.6 0.0 8.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 2.7 0.7 0.0 7.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.6 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 4.9 16th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.6 5.4 8.2 11.0 13.0 13.7 12.8 10.6 8.3 5.9 3.5 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
18-2 95.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 72.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 42.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 14.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 18.1% 81.9% 2.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.4% 100.0% 12.7% 87.3% 3.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.9% 100.0% 8.6% 91.4% 4.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 2.0% 100.0% 5.9% 94.1% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 3.5% 99.9% 3.9% 95.9% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 5.9% 98.6% 1.8% 96.8% 6.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.6%
11-9 8.3% 96.1% 1.2% 94.9% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.1 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.3 96.0%
10-10 10.6% 86.0% 0.9% 85.1% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 2.7 2.3 1.1 0.0 1.5 85.9%
9-11 12.8% 59.1% 0.2% 58.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.7 0.3 5.2 59.1%
8-12 13.7% 23.2% 0.2% 22.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.2 0.4 10.5 23.0%
7-13 13.0% 3.7% 0.1% 3.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 12.6 3.6%
6-14 11.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.9 0.2%
5-15 8.2% 8.2
4-16 5.4% 5.4
3-17 2.6% 2.6
2-18 1.1% 1.1
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 41.2% 0.8% 40.4% 8.3 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.7 4.2 5.3 5.9 6.4 5.7 7.6 0.9 58.8 40.8%