Arizona St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.8#72
Expected Predictive Rating+13.4#27
Pace71.5#115
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#98
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#48
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 1.4% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 4.0% 5.9% 1.9%
Top 6 Seed 9.9% 13.7% 5.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.6% 34.2% 17.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 26.1% 33.6% 17.5%
Average Seed 7.6 7.4 8.1
.500 or above 35.4% 46.0% 23.2%
.500 or above in Conference 21.2% 25.7% 16.1%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 18.7% 15.2% 22.8%
First Four5.3% 6.3% 4.1%
First Round23.9% 30.9% 15.7%
Second Round13.2% 17.8% 8.0%
Sweet Sixteen5.0% 7.0% 2.7%
Elite Eight1.7% 2.4% 1.0%
Final Four0.6% 0.8% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Grand Canyon (Neutral) - 53.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 91 - 9
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 13
Quad 24 - 38 - 16
Quad 33 - 111 - 17
Quad 44 - 014 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 265   Idaho St. W 55-48 93%     1 - 0 -1.3 -16.7 +15.8
  Nov 08, 2024 111   Santa Clara W 81-74 65%     2 - 0 +10.9 +8.3 +2.5
  Nov 10, 2024 4   @ Gonzaga L 80-88 9%     2 - 1 +14.3 +12.4 +2.0
  Nov 14, 2024 85   Grand Canyon W 73-72 54%    
  Nov 17, 2024 169   St. Thomas W 78-67 85%    
  Nov 20, 2024 333   Cal Poly W 86-65 97%    
  Nov 28, 2024 56   New Mexico L 82-83 45%    
  Dec 03, 2024 277   San Diego W 82-65 94%    
  Dec 14, 2024 21   Florida L 76-81 31%    
  Dec 21, 2024 109   Massachusetts W 76-72 62%    
  Dec 31, 2024 32   @ BYU L 71-78 25%    
  Jan 04, 2025 76   Colorado W 72-69 62%    
  Jan 08, 2025 5   @ Kansas L 68-82 10%    
  Jan 11, 2025 13   Baylor L 70-74 34%    
  Jan 14, 2025 66   Central Florida W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 18, 2025 22   @ Cincinnati L 68-76 24%    
  Jan 21, 2025 57   @ West Virginia L 71-75 36%    
  Jan 25, 2025 11   Iowa St. L 66-72 31%    
  Jan 28, 2025 76   @ Colorado L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 01, 2025 8   Arizona L 74-81 28%    
  Feb 04, 2025 42   Kansas St. W 71-70 50%    
  Feb 09, 2025 87   @ Oklahoma St. L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 12, 2025 14   @ Texas Tech L 67-77 19%    
  Feb 15, 2025 53   TCU W 75-74 55%    
  Feb 18, 2025 2   Houston L 62-71 22%    
  Feb 23, 2025 42   @ Kansas St. L 68-74 30%    
  Feb 26, 2025 32   BYU L 74-75 45%    
  Mar 01, 2025 51   @ Utah L 72-77 34%    
  Mar 04, 2025 8   @ Arizona L 71-84 14%    
  Mar 08, 2025 14   Texas Tech L 70-74 37%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 1.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 3.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.7 0.6 0.0 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.6 1.5 0.1 6.8 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 3.6 2.6 0.3 0.0 7.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.5 3.7 0.8 0.0 8.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.4 1.6 0.1 9.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.9 2.5 0.3 0.0 10.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.7 3.2 0.5 0.0 11.5 14th
15th 0.1 0.8 2.8 4.4 3.2 0.7 0.0 11.9 15th
16th 0.5 1.8 3.3 3.5 2.1 0.5 0.0 11.6 16th
Total 0.5 1.9 4.0 6.8 9.3 11.5 12.1 12.1 11.0 9.6 7.3 5.3 3.7 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1
18-2 93.3% 0.0    0.0
17-3 73.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 43.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 15.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1
18-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 10.5% 89.5% 1.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.4% 100.0% 11.9% 88.1% 2.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.7% 100.0% 9.1% 90.9% 3.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.4% 100.0% 8.4% 91.6% 3.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 2.2% 99.8% 4.1% 95.8% 4.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 3.7% 98.7% 1.7% 97.0% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.7%
11-9 5.3% 95.1% 1.2% 93.9% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.3 95.0%
10-10 7.3% 81.6% 0.6% 81.0% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.3 81.5%
9-11 9.6% 47.6% 0.3% 47.3% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 5.0 47.5%
8-12 11.0% 18.1% 0.3% 17.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 9.0 17.9%
7-13 12.1% 3.3% 0.1% 3.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 11.7 3.2%
6-14 12.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 11.7 0.0 0.0 12.1 0.2%
5-15 11.5% 11.5
4-16 9.3% 9.3
3-17 6.8% 6.8
2-18 4.0% 4.0
1-19 1.9% 1.9
0-20 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 26.6% 0.6% 26.0% 7.6 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.8 2.7 3.2 2.9 2.5 2.8 2.6 4.2 1.5 0.1 0.0 73.4 26.1%