Arizona St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.6#64
Expected Predictive Rating+10.8#53
Pace70.6#124
Improvement-2.9#312

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#98
First Shot+2.5#106
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#141
Layup/Dunks-3.0#290
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#84
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#80
Freethrows+0.8#127
Improvement-1.6#271

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#50
First Shot+2.9#89
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#20
Layups/Dunks+3.1#69
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#325
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#207
Freethrows+2.1#56
Improvement-1.3#254
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 1.1% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.7% 28.3% 10.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 14.6% 28.2% 10.0%
Average Seed 9.7 9.5 9.9
.500 or above 46.9% 69.5% 39.3%
.500 or above in Conference 6.3% 14.0% 3.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.6% 5.8% 17.6%
First Four6.1% 9.3% 5.0%
First Round11.4% 23.3% 7.4%
Second Round4.3% 8.5% 2.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.6% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: West Virginia (Away) - 25.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 92 - 9
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 12
Quad 25 - 38 - 15
Quad 35 - 113 - 16
Quad 43 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 217   Idaho St. W 55-48 91%     1 - 0 +1.1 -17.5 +19.0
  Nov 08, 2024 67   Santa Clara W 81-74 51%     2 - 0 +15.4 +10.8 +4.6
  Nov 10, 2024 14   @ Gonzaga L 80-88 16%     2 - 1 +11.4 +11.4 +0.2
  Nov 14, 2024 83   Grand Canyon W 87-76 57%     3 - 1 +17.8 +13.8 +3.3
  Nov 17, 2024 125   St. Thomas W 81-66 80%     4 - 1 +14.7 +6.1 +8.8
  Nov 20, 2024 286   Cal Poly W 93-89 95%     5 - 1 -5.9 +3.6 -10.0
  Nov 28, 2024 53   New Mexico W 85-82 43%     6 - 1 +13.5 +15.2 -1.8
  Nov 29, 2024 35   St. Mary's W 68-64 35%     7 - 1 +16.6 +4.6 +12.2
  Dec 03, 2024 290   San Diego W 90-53 95%     8 - 1 +26.8 +8.8 +15.6
  Dec 14, 2024 5   Florida L 66-83 14%     8 - 2 +3.5 -3.0 +7.7
  Dec 21, 2024 171   Massachusetts W 78-62 80%     9 - 2 +15.6 +3.9 +11.3
  Dec 31, 2024 44   @ BYU L 56-76 29%     9 - 3 0 - 1 -5.8 -6.5 -0.9
  Jan 04, 2025 94   Colorado W 81-61 70%     10 - 3 1 - 1 +23.3 +9.1 +13.7
  Jan 08, 2025 6   @ Kansas L 55-74 11%     10 - 4 1 - 2 +3.3 -2.2 +4.6
  Jan 11, 2025 22   Baylor L 66-72 OT 35%     10 - 5 1 - 3 +6.5 -1.6 +8.0
  Jan 14, 2025 71   Central Florida L 89-95 63%     10 - 6 1 - 4 -1.0 +13.0 -13.6
  Jan 18, 2025 39   @ Cincinnati L 60-67 28%     10 - 7 1 - 5 +7.6 +2.2 +5.0
  Jan 21, 2025 32   @ West Virginia L 64-71 25%    
  Jan 25, 2025 4   Iowa St. L 68-77 21%    
  Jan 28, 2025 94   @ Colorado L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 01, 2025 13   Arizona L 73-79 30%    
  Feb 04, 2025 89   Kansas St. W 75-70 69%    
  Feb 09, 2025 101   @ Oklahoma St. W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 12, 2025 17   @ Texas Tech L 67-78 15%    
  Feb 15, 2025 62   TCU W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 18, 2025 3   Houston L 60-70 18%    
  Feb 23, 2025 89   @ Kansas St. L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 26, 2025 44   BYU L 73-74 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 69   @ Utah L 73-75 43%    
  Mar 04, 2025 13   @ Arizona L 71-82 15%    
  Mar 08, 2025 17   Texas Tech L 70-75 33%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.8 6th
7th 0.2 1.2 0.6 0.1 2.1 7th
8th 0.3 1.7 1.9 0.3 4.2 8th
9th 0.2 2.0 3.3 0.8 0.1 6.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.7 5.0 2.1 0.1 8.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 5.6 4.5 0.6 11.6 11th
12th 0.6 5.8 6.7 1.3 0.1 14.4 12th
13th 0.3 4.5 8.9 2.7 0.1 16.7 13th
14th 0.3 3.0 7.7 3.7 0.3 14.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.4 3.3 0.4 11.7 15th
16th 0.4 1.7 3.3 2.1 0.4 0.0 7.8 16th
Total 0.4 2.1 5.9 10.8 16.5 19.8 17.1 13.3 7.9 4.1 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.6% 100.0% 100.0% 6.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 1.5% 97.4% 1.3% 96.1% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 97.4%
10-10 4.1% 90.2% 0.7% 89.5% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.4 90.2%
9-11 7.9% 63.6% 0.1% 63.4% 10.2 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 2.1 0.1 2.9 63.5%
8-12 13.3% 23.6% 0.2% 23.5% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.3 0.3 10.2 23.5%
7-13 17.1% 3.3% 3.3% 11.1 0.0 0.5 0.1 16.5 3.3%
6-14 19.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 11.0 0.1 19.7 0.3%
5-15 16.5% 16.5
4-16 10.8% 10.8
3-17 5.9% 5.9
2-18 2.1% 2.1
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20
Total 100% 14.7% 0.1% 14.6% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 2.2 3.4 5.4 0.5 85.3 14.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%