Oregon
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.0#23
Expected Predictive Rating+21.8#5
Pace69.0#174
Improvement+1.1#106

Offense
Total Offense+7.7#27
First Shot+7.0#30
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#141
Layup/Dunks+4.1#51
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#269
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#160
Freethrows+3.9#17
Improvement+0.8#111

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#30
First Shot+7.0#17
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#234
Layups/Dunks+4.6#46
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#174
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#243
Freethrows+3.4#16
Improvement+0.3#167
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
#1 Seed 3.5% 4.1% 1.5%
Top 2 Seed 12.1% 13.9% 6.2%
Top 4 Seed 41.9% 45.9% 29.0%
Top 6 Seed 69.9% 73.7% 57.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.3% 96.6% 91.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 94.9% 96.2% 90.6%
Average Seed 5.2 5.0 5.9
.500 or above 99.5% 99.8% 98.5%
.500 or above in Conference 81.4% 83.3% 74.9%
Conference Champion 9.5% 10.3% 6.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 0.6%
First Four2.8% 2.3% 4.3%
First Round93.9% 95.4% 89.0%
Second Round68.9% 71.8% 59.6%
Sweet Sixteen34.0% 36.4% 26.4%
Elite Eight14.0% 15.2% 10.1%
Final Four5.7% 6.3% 3.7%
Championship Game2.2% 2.5% 1.3%
National Champion0.8% 0.9% 0.5%

Next Game: Stanford (Neutral) - 76.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 38 - 7
Quad 27 - 215 - 9
Quad 34 - 019 - 9
Quad 44 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 177   UC Riverside W 91-76 94%     1 - 0 +11.1 +15.7 -4.7
  Nov 08, 2024 212   Montana W 79-48 95%     2 - 0 +25.5 +8.0 +19.9
  Nov 12, 2024 312   Portland W 80-70 OT 98%     3 - 0 -1.3 -7.6 +5.0
  Nov 17, 2024 127   Troy W 82-61 91%     4 - 0 +20.2 +5.3 +13.7
  Nov 21, 2024 67   @ Oregon St. W 78-75 61%     5 - 0 +14.2 +15.9 -1.5
  Nov 26, 2024 24   Texas A&M W 80-70 51%     6 - 0 +23.9 +16.8 +7.3
  Nov 27, 2024 45   San Diego St. W 78-68 62%     7 - 0 +21.0 +14.7 +6.6
  Nov 30, 2024 7   Alabama W 83-81 33%     8 - 0 +20.5 +12.3 +8.1
  Dec 04, 2024 80   @ USC W 68-60 66%     9 - 0 1 - 0 +17.9 +2.1 +16.0
  Dec 08, 2024 17   UCLA L 71-73 58%     9 - 1 1 - 1 +10.0 +10.8 -0.8
  Dec 15, 2024 214   Stephen F. Austin W 79-61 96%     10 - 1 +12.3 +7.9 +4.2
  Dec 21, 2024 87   Stanford W 79-71 77%    
  Dec 29, 2024 208   Weber St. W 81-62 96%    
  Jan 02, 2025 16   Illinois W 77-75 57%    
  Jan 05, 2025 19   Maryland W 76-73 60%    
  Jan 09, 2025 39   @ Ohio St. L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 12, 2025 31   @ Penn St. L 76-78 44%    
  Jan 18, 2025 22   Purdue W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 21, 2025 96   Washington W 78-67 85%    
  Jan 25, 2025 114   @ Minnesota W 70-62 76%    
  Jan 30, 2025 17   @ UCLA L 65-69 36%    
  Feb 02, 2025 52   Nebraska W 77-70 74%    
  Feb 05, 2025 20   @ Michigan L 73-76 38%    
  Feb 08, 2025 14   @ Michigan St. L 70-74 35%    
  Feb 11, 2025 59   Northwestern W 72-64 76%    
  Feb 16, 2025 62   Rutgers W 79-71 77%    
  Feb 19, 2025 43   @ Iowa L 80-81 49%    
  Feb 22, 2025 35   @ Wisconsin L 75-76 46%    
  Mar 01, 2025 80   USC W 78-68 82%    
  Mar 04, 2025 46   Indiana W 80-74 71%    
  Mar 09, 2025 96   @ Washington W 75-70 69%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.8 3.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 9.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 3.9 3.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.9 4.4 1.4 0.1 10.5 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 5.1 1.9 0.1 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.8 3.2 0.3 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 4.5 0.8 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.7 1.9 0.1 7.6 7th
8th 0.2 2.9 3.6 0.4 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.9 1.4 0.0 6.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.4 2.6 0.2 0.0 5.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 2.7 0.7 0.0 4.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.6 0.1 0.0 3.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.4 2.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.0 2.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.8 5.3 8.2 11.4 13.9 15.0 14.4 11.6 8.0 4.5 2.0 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 98.6% 0.6    0.5 0.0
17-3 88.7% 1.8    1.4 0.3 0.0
16-4 69.2% 3.1    1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 35.0% 2.8    0.8 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 9.0% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.5% 9.5 4.8 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 38.3% 61.7% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.6% 100.0% 31.1% 68.9% 1.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.0% 100.0% 24.2% 75.8% 1.7 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.5% 100.0% 22.7% 77.3% 2.1 1.1 2.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 8.0% 100.0% 19.1% 80.9% 2.7 0.8 2.6 3.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 11.6% 100.0% 15.7% 84.3% 3.4 0.3 1.9 4.5 3.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-7 14.4% 100.0% 11.5% 88.4% 4.1 0.1 0.7 3.5 5.0 3.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 15.0% 100.0% 6.6% 93.3% 5.0 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.5 4.9 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 13.9% 99.9% 3.6% 96.3% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.4 4.5 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-10 11.4% 99.3% 2.6% 96.7% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.8 3.1 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.3%
9-11 8.2% 96.1% 1.5% 94.6% 8.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 2.0 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.3 96.1%
8-12 5.3% 82.8% 1.0% 81.9% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.2 0.0 0.9 82.7%
7-13 2.8% 51.6% 0.1% 51.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 1.4 51.5%
6-14 1.5% 16.9% 16.9% 11.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.2 16.9%
5-15 0.5% 1.9% 1.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9%
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 95.3% 8.7% 86.6% 5.2 3.5 8.6 14.6 15.3 15.0 13.0 8.5 5.9 4.8 3.4 2.8 0.2 0.0 4.7 94.9%