Oregon
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +6.9 80
Expected Predictive Rating +3.3 110
Pace 65.8 258
Improvement -1.1 236

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- #84 C B+ C B- C+
Defense B- #89 B- B C B- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 189 57% 209 -0.7 203
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 267 42% 57 -0.9 228
Three Pointers 45% 89 34% 183 +2.3 104
1st FG Attempt 1.03 148 +0.7 149
Second Chance 36.2% 37 1.13 54 0.41 30
Turnovers 16.7% 171
Freethrows 0.34 88 71% 221 0.24 117
Total Offense +3.8 84

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 321 51% 36 +5.7 27
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 47 43% 325 -3.3 357
Three Pointers 42% 151 34% 174 -0.3 197
1st FG Attempt 0.98 105 +2.2 106
Second Chance 28.8% 109 0.89 28 0.26 52
Turnovers 16.9% 187
Freethrows 0.27 64 75% 320 0.20 100
Total Defense +3.1 89

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.5 112 -1.1 30
Shot Type Accuracy +0.2 169 -1.1 136
Possession Length 17.6 206 18.0 299
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 214 0.16 156
Improvement -0.2 #190 -0.9 #246

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 47% 35% 76%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Penn St. (Home) - 70.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b0 - 60 - 13
Quad 22 - 62 - 19
Quad 33 - 15 - 20
Quad 46 - 011 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 102 Hawaii W 60 - 59 69% +3  62% 1 - 0 C+ +3 F -15 F+ B+ F A+ +18 A+ B- A
 Fri, Nov 7 220 Rice W 67 - 63 88% +0  45% 2 - 0 C- -2 F+ -10 F B D B+ +8 B+ B B+
 Wed, Nov 12 193 South Dakota St. W 83 - 69 87% +5  88% 3 - 0 B +9 B- +4 C+ B+ B- B +5 B- B- C-
 Mon, Nov 17 178 Oregon St. W 87 - 75 85% +7  97% 4 - 0 B- +8 A +12 A- A- C D+ -4 B- C- C
 Mon, Nov 24 28 Auburn L 73 - 84 21% -3  13% 4 - 1 C+ +4 C +2 D A+ F B- +3 A C F
 Tue, Nov 25 43 San Diego St. L 80 - 97 30% -10  9% 4 - 2 C- -5 A +13 A+ C+ A- F -18 F F+ A-
 Thu, Nov 27 61 Creighton L 66 - 76 43% -6  5% 4 - 3 C -1 D -5 F+ B- B+ B- +3 A- A+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 47 USC L 77 - 82 45% +1  46% 4 - 4 0 - 1 C+ +3 B+ +8 A A D D+ -5 D C- A
 Sat, Dec 6 34 @UCLA L 63 - 74 16% -8  4% 4 - 5 0 - 2 B- +6 B- +5 F A+ B- C -0 C+ C- B-
 Sat, Dec 13 180 UC Davis W 104 - 62 85% +30  99% 5 - 5 A+ +38 A+ +23 A+ A+ B A+ +13 A+ B+ C+
 Wed, Dec 17 206 Portland W 94 - 69 88% +11  95% 6 - 5 A +19 B +6 A+ C+ D+ A +10 B+ B+ B-
 Sun, Dec 21 13 Gonzaga L 82 - 91 13% -4  20% 6 - 6 B +10 A+ +19 A- A+ A D- -9 C A F
 Sun, Dec 28 249 Nebraska Omaha W 80 - 57 91% +11  98% 7 - 6 A- +15 B+ +8 B C+ B- A- +10 A C D-
 Fri, Jan 2 104 @Maryland W 64 - 54 48% +5  92% 8 - 6 1 - 2 A- +17 D+ -3 B- C- F A+ +21 A+ A+ D
 Mon, Jan 5 122 @Rutgers L 85 - 88 OT 55% +1  50% 8 - 7 1 - 3 C+ +3 B+ +7 C A+ F D+ -5 C- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 39 Ohio St. L 62 - 72 35% -8  1% 8 - 8 1 - 4 C +1 D+ -4 F B A+ B- +4 A D A-
 Tue, Jan 13 15 @Nebraska L 55 - 90 9% -14  4% 8 - 9 1 - 5 D- -14 D+ -4 B- C- F F -13 F+ D- F+
 Sat, Jan 17 1 Michigan L 71 - 81 8% -6  5% 8 - 10 1 - 6 B+ +13 A- +10 C+ A+ B C+ +2 C A- A
 Tue, Jan 20 10 Michigan St. L 52 - 68 18% -4  16% 8 - 11 1 - 7 C +1 D+ -4 C+ B+ C+ C+ +2 F A B+
 Sun, Jan 25 46 @Washington L 57 - 72 24% -12  0% 8 - 12 1 - 8 C -1 D- -7 D F C+ B +5 D+ A+ B-
 Wed, Jan 28 34 UCLA L 57 - 73 33% -11  3% 8 - 13 1 - 9 C- -5 D -6 C F A- C -1 A+ F F
 Sun, Feb 1 25 Iowa L 66 - 84 28% -7  4% 8 - 14 1 - 10 D+ -5 B+ +8 F+ A+ A+ F -16 F A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 9 @Purdue L 64 - 68 7% -3  15% 8 - 15 1 - 11 A +20 C +1 B C- D+ A+ +18 A A A+
 Mon, Feb 9 29 @Indiana L 74 - 92 16% -7  22% 8 - 16 1 - 12 C -0 A- +10 B A A+ F+ -11 F A+ C
 Sat, Feb 14 109 Penn St. W 78 - 72 71%
 Tue, Feb 17 71 Minnesota W 69 - 67 57%
 Sat, Feb 21 47 @USC L 71 - 78 24%
 Wed, Feb 25 33 Wisconsin L 75 - 79 34%
 Sat, Feb 28 64 @Northwestern L 70 - 75 34%
 Tue, Mar 3 6 @Illinois L 66 - 84 5%
 Sat, Mar 7 46 Washington L 73 - 74 45%
Totals 11 - 20 4 - 16 +7 B- +4 C B+ C B- +3 B- B C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- C- B C C 38% 16% 45% C+ C B+ B B+ C B- C- B- B- B+ D- C C+ 32% 26% 42% B+ B- C+ B+ B C B- D B-
1.14 57% 42% 34% 0 +1 1.03 36% 1.1 .41 17% .34 71% .24 1.04 51% 43% 34% -1 -1 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 17% .27 75% .25
Nov
4		 Hawaii F D F F F 59% 13% 28% A F+ A+ D+ B+ F A+ D- A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ 35% 22% 44% A A+ D+ A B- A C+ A+ B+
0.79 48% 17% 15% -16 +2 0.74 40% 0.9 .37 28% .48 62% .29 0.78 47% 25% 21% -15 0 0.71 33% 0.9 .29 24% .33 63% .21
Nov
7		 Rice F+ F F F F 26% 18% 55% B- F A D+ B D A+ D- A+ B+ A+ B+ F B+ 25% 30% 45% C+ B+ B- B+ B B+ A D- A-
1.01 50% 14% 24% -15 -1 0.71 42% 0.9 .39 18% .70 68% .48 0.95 23% 31% 42% -5 -2 0.87 34% 0.8 .27 21% .21 73% .15
Nov
12		 South Dakota St. B- B+ B C+ B- 16% 16% 67% D C+ D A+ B+ B- D C+ D+ B B+ F B C 26% 31% 43% A+ B- A+ F B- C- B B+ B+
1.18 67% 44% 35% +4 -1 1.07 24% 1.6 .38 14% .26 75% .20 0.98 50% 53% 30% 0 -2 0.98 19% 1.3 .25 16% .23 64% .15
Nov
17		 Oregon St. A D+ C+ A+ A- 45% 11% 45% B A- A+ C A- C A+ D- A+ D+ C+ D+ B B- 36% 15% 49% D+ B- C- C C- C F+ F F
1.28 52% 40% 43% +4 +2 1.13 44% 1.0 .44 15% .67 69% .46 1.10 53% 43% 30% -4 +1 0.96 27% 1.2 .33 18% .44 84% .37
Nov
24		 Auburn C F+ A+ F D- 24% 11% 64% B- D A+ B- A+ F A+ B A+ B- D- D+ A+ A- 34% 29% 38% A+ A A F C F B F C
1.04 45% 60% 28% -7 0 0.89 48% 1.1 .52 26% .44 78% .35 1.20 68% 44% 24% 0 -1 0.98 32% 1.3 .42 9% .36 83% .30
Nov
25		 San Diego St. A F A+ A+ A 36% 12% 52% B+ A+ A- D- C+ A- A A+ A+ F F F F F 29% 31% 40% B F F C- F+ A- A+ F A+
1.14 39% 50% 46% +4 +1 1.12 35% 0.7 .25 18% .38 82% .31 1.38 93% 69% 52% +31 -2 1.60 40% 1.1 .45 21% .16 89% .14
Nov
27		 Creighton D C+ B- F F 43% 32% 25% C- F+ A- D B- B+ D+ D- D+ B- B- A B A 46% 24% 30% C A- A+ A+ A+ F F+ F F
0.98 58% 39% 7% -10 -1 0.80 37% 0.9 .35 13% .19 64% .12 1.12 60% 31% 31% -2 0 0.98 18% 0.7 .12 7% .34 90% .30
Dec
2		 USC B+ F+ A+ A+ A 40% 13% 47% B+ A B A+ A D A+ F A+ D+ C+ F C+ D 37% 24% 39% C+ D F A- C- A D C D+
1.12 44% 67% 43% +5 +1 1.13 32% 1.2 .39 20% .48 65% .31 1.20 59% 73% 33% +8 -1 1.17 45% 0.9 .39 22% .47 72% .34
Dec
6		 UCLA B- F F D- F 27% 16% 57% C+ F A+ A+ A+ B- A+ D+ A+ C B C- F C- 20% 45% 34% A+ C+ F A+ C- B- F+ F F
1.04 33% 29% 28% -13 0 0.75 43% 1.3 .54 18% .48 71% .34 1.22 56% 40% 47% +7 -4 1.07 47% 0.9 .41 15% .41 86% .35
Dec
13		 UC Davis A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 43% 16% 41% C A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ D A+ A+ 27% 23% 50% B A+ A C+ B+ C+ B- D C+
1.44 67% 50% 45% +12 +1 1.29 50% 1.6 .79 17% .45 74% .33 0.86 43% 42% 27% -8 -1 0.83 19% 1.0 .19 19% .33 79% .26
Dec
17		 Portland B A F+ A+ A+ 34% 14% 52% C+ A+ C- B+ C+ D+ B+ A+ A A C- A+ A B+ 40% 21% 40% C+ B+ B+ B- B+ B- A- D- B
1.19 70% 25% 43% +10 +1 1.22 30% 1.2 .36 19% .36 83% .30 0.88 61% 25% 26% -6 0 0.90 25% 1.1 .28 22% .23 79% .18
Dec
21		 Gonzaga A+ B- A+ C A 22% 20% 57% C+ A- B+ A+ A+ A D- A+ B D- A- B+ F C- 29% 33% 37% A- C C+ A+ A F F F F
1.21 58% 55% 32% +2 -1 1.04 29% 1.7 .48 16% .23 100% .23 1.34 53% 35% 53% +8 -2 1.14 35% 0.9 .32 7% .45 82% .37
Dec
28		 Nebraska Omaha B+ B- F A+ B+ 32% 13% 55% C B A+ F C+ B- F F F A- A+ F A+ A 27% 25% 47% B+ A C C C D- B- A+ A+
1.26 65% 29% 41% +7 0 1.17 44% 0.7 .32 13% .23 46% .11 0.90 29% 62% 25% -8 -1 0.82 26% 1.1 .28 14% .27 47% .13
Jan
2		 Maryland D+ B- A+ D C+ 48% 14% 38% B+ B- D+ C C- F A+ F A- A+ A+ D- A+ A+ 28% 21% 51% B+ A+ B- A+ A+ D A+ F+ A-
0.99 60% 50% 31% +1 +1 1.07 25% 1.0 .25 22% .41 62% .26 0.83 27% 45% 19% -19 -1 0.62 33% 0.8 .24 15% .26 79% .20
Jan
5		 Rutgers B+ D+ F B+ C- 32% 15% 53% B- C A A+ A+ F B- C B- D+ A+ F D- D 27% 44% 29% A+ C- A A+ A+ F F F F
1.15 53% 13% 39% -1 0 1.00 42% 1.3 .55 23% .28 75% .21 1.19 40% 50% 38% +2 -4 0.98 27% 0.8 .22 9% .51 88% .45
Jan
8		 Ohio St. D+ F B F F 28% 18% 54% B F B+ C B A+ A C+ A B- D A+ A A+ 40% 24% 36% D+ A F B- D A- F C F
0.99 36% 44% 22% -15 0 0.72 35% 1.0 .35 11% .36 75% .27 1.15 71% 30% 27% -1 0 1.00 43% 1.0 .43 19% .45 78% .35
Jan
13		 Nebraska D+ B- D+ F+ C 33% 14% 52% A+ B- D+ C+ C- F A+ F B F F A+ F F 30% 11% 58% B- F+ C F D- F+ A- F+ B+
0.86 64% 33% 27% -4 0 0.95 21% 0.9 .18 25% .35 53% .19 1.40 81% 17% 45% +15 +1 1.32 27% 1.4 .37 9% .19 82% .15
Jan
17		 Michigan A- D+ C- F C 39% 29% 31% B C+ A+ A+ A+ B A- D B C+ A F F C+ 51% 2% 47% D- C D- A+ A- A F C F
1.05 45% 33% 25% -11 -1 0.78 38% 1.3 .51 16% .28 69% .19 1.20 50% 100% 45% +5 +3 1.19 44% 1.0 .44 21% .56 73% .41
Jan
20		 Michigan St. D+ F A A C 41% 20% 39% B+ C+ B- A+ B+ C+ D+ F F C+ F F D+ F 25% 32% 43% A F A+ F A B+ A+ A+ A+
0.88 32% 44% 39% -7 0 0.89 22% 1.0 .22 17% .22 45% .10 1.15 73% 64% 37% +14 -2 1.25 26% 1.3 .35 20% .19 56% .11
Jan
25		 Washington D- A+ C- F C- 17% 49% 34% F D F F F C+ A+ A+ A+ B A- C F F+ 17% 42% 42% A+ D+ F A+ A+ B- B+ A+ A
0.89 71% 35% 21% -6 -5 0.80 4% 0.0 .00 16% .52 86% .44 1.12 50% 40% 50% +10 -4 1.13 45% 0.6 .25 17% .24 62% .15
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 UCLA D C- F C- C- 31% 12% 57% B C C- F F A- F F+ F C B- A+ B- A+ 29% 41% 31% A A+ C+ F F F D- F F
0.93 56% 17% 31% -5 +1 0.92 28% 0.5 .13 16% .17 67% .12 1.19 57% 25% 33% -6 -3 0.84 32% 1.6 .51 6% .40 87% .35
Feb
1		 Iowa B+ F+ A+ F F+ 33% 23% 44% D+ F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ A- F D- F F F 49% 12% 39% D- F A- A+ A+ F A+ D A+
1.12 50% 50% 21% -8 -1 0.84 41% 1.2 .50 15% .32 88% .28 1.42 71% 67% 53% +21 +2 1.47 28% 0.6 .16 8% .18 80% .15
Feb
7		 Purdue C A+ A+ F B 29% 19% 52% B B C D+ C- D+ A+ C+ A A+ C F+ A A 32% 27% 41% B A A+ B- A A+ F D+ F
0.97 79% 67% 20% +1 0 1.02 23% 1.0 .23 20% .30 69% .21 1.03 64% 50% 28% +2 -1 1.02 28% 1.1 .31 21% .48 76% .36
Feb
9		 Indiana A- B+ C- B- B+ 31% 35% 35% D B C- A+ A A+ A+ F+ B+ F+ F F F F 26% 23% 51% A+ F A A+ A+ C F C+ F
1.12 60% 35% 35% 0 -2 0.98 25% 1.8 .44 9% .41 68% .28 1.39 83% 82% 42% +23 -1 1.45 23% 0.8 .18 14% .47 78% .37



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.0 1.2 12th
13th 1.5 3.6 0.4 0.0 5.5 13th
14th 1.3 8.8 2.3 0.0 12.4 14th
15th 0.2 10.8 6.6 0.2 17.8 15th
16th 0.0 4.4 13.3 0.8 18.5 16th
17th 1.8 15.7 3.8 0.0 21.3 17th
18th 3.0 12.3 7.7 0.2 23.2 18th
Total 3.0 14.2 28.0 29.3 17.7 6.6 1.1 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13 1.1% 1.1
6-14 6.6% 6.6
5-15 17.7% 17.7
4-16 29.3% 29.3
3-17 28.0% 28.0
2-18 14.2% 14.2
1-19 3.0% 3.0
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.0%