Oregon
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.2#39
Expected Predictive Rating+15.6#25
Pace69.0#157
Improvement-3.7#321

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#37
First Shot+7.2#26
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#203
Layup/Dunks+4.0#52
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#208
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#151
Freethrows+3.1#31
Improvement-0.7#217

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#55
First Shot+4.9#49
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#150
Layups/Dunks+2.5#84
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#174
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#270
Freethrows+4.1#4
Improvement-3.0#322
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 2.7% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 14.9% 38.3% 9.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.7% 99.6% 97.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.7% 99.6% 97.3%
Average Seed 7.8 6.8 8.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 76.0% 95.6% 71.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 0.0% 1.0%
First Round97.3% 99.6% 96.8%
Second Round45.6% 54.0% 43.8%
Sweet Sixteen9.8% 15.1% 8.6%
Elite Eight3.2% 4.3% 2.9%
Final Four0.9% 1.6% 0.8%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin (Away) - 18.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 8
Quad 25 - 314 - 11
Quad 35 - 018 - 11
Quad 44 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 149   UC Riverside W 91-76 90%     1 - 0 +13.1 +15.2 -2.2
  Nov 08, 2024 182   Montana W 79-48 92%     2 - 0 +27.3 +8.0 +21.7
  Nov 12, 2024 284   Portland W 80-70 OT 97%     3 - 0 +0.5 -10.0 +9.3
  Nov 17, 2024 118   Troy W 82-61 87%     4 - 0 +21.2 +6.6 +13.5
  Nov 21, 2024 87   @ Oregon St. W 78-75 62%     5 - 0 +11.9 +11.0 +1.1
  Nov 26, 2024 20   Texas A&M W 80-70 35%     6 - 0 +26.0 +18.9 +7.3
  Nov 27, 2024 51   San Diego St. W 78-68 56%     7 - 0 +20.7 +17.5 +3.5
  Nov 30, 2024 6   Alabama W 83-81 24%     8 - 0 +21.5 +11.7 +9.7
  Dec 04, 2024 59   @ USC W 68-60 48%     9 - 0 1 - 0 +20.7 +2.0 +18.9
  Dec 08, 2024 27   UCLA L 71-73 50%     9 - 1 1 - 1 +10.2 +8.5 +1.7
  Dec 15, 2024 249   Stephen F. Austin W 79-61 96%     10 - 1 +10.6 +6.2 +4.2
  Dec 21, 2024 88   Stanford W 76-61 71%     11 - 1 +21.3 +7.6 +14.2
  Dec 29, 2024 297   Weber St. W 89-49 97%     12 - 1 +29.9 +10.0 +19.8
  Jan 02, 2025 18   Illinois L 77-109 44%     12 - 2 1 - 2 -18.4 +1.5 -16.6
  Jan 05, 2025 13   Maryland W 83-79 38%     13 - 2 2 - 2 +19.4 +22.5 -2.9
  Jan 09, 2025 33   @ Ohio St. W 73-71 35%     14 - 2 3 - 2 +18.2 +6.8 +11.4
  Jan 12, 2025 62   @ Penn St. W 82-81 54%     15 - 2 4 - 2 +12.1 +12.2 -0.1
  Jan 18, 2025 16   Purdue L 58-65 39%     15 - 3 4 - 3 +7.9 -10.0 +17.9
  Jan 21, 2025 90   Washington W 82-71 80%     16 - 3 5 - 3 +14.2 +11.9 +2.4
  Jan 25, 2025 76   @ Minnesota L 69-77 59%     16 - 4 5 - 4 +1.9 +5.7 -4.2
  Jan 30, 2025 27   @ UCLA L 52-78 31%     16 - 5 5 - 5 -8.7 -2.8 -10.2
  Feb 02, 2025 48   Nebraska L 71-77 64%     16 - 6 5 - 6 +2.5 +3.9 -1.6
  Feb 05, 2025 22   @ Michigan L 76-80 28%     16 - 7 5 - 7 +14.2 +7.3 +7.2
  Feb 08, 2025 12   @ Michigan St. L 74-86 21%     16 - 8 5 - 8 +8.8 +13.5 -4.9
  Feb 11, 2025 58   Northwestern W 81-75 67%     17 - 8 6 - 8 +13.7 +16.3 -2.3
  Feb 16, 2025 63   Rutgers W 75-57 73%     18 - 8 7 - 8 +23.8 +13.8 +12.3
  Feb 19, 2025 61   @ Iowa W 80-78 52%     19 - 8 8 - 8 +13.8 +16.5 -2.5
  Feb 22, 2025 7   @ Wisconsin L 72-81 18%    
  Mar 01, 2025 59   USC W 78-73 68%    
  Mar 04, 2025 57   Indiana W 77-73 67%    
  Mar 09, 2025 90   @ Washington W 77-73 63%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 0.8 5th
6th 0.3 6.2 3.3 9.8 6th
7th 0.1 11.2 20.6 1.8 33.7 7th
8th 3.5 23.0 4.3 30.7 8th
9th 0.1 9.5 4.4 14.0 9th
10th 0.6 6.1 0.1 6.8 10th
11th 1.4 1.1 2.4 11th
12th 1.4 0.0 1.4 12th
13th 0.3 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 3.7 20.3 39.0 31.1 5.9 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 5.9% 100.0% 3.1% 96.9% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 2.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-9 31.1% 99.8% 2.0% 97.8% 7.1 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.6 11.7 9.4 2.3 0.1 0.1 99.8%
10-10 39.0% 99.1% 1.6% 97.5% 7.9 0.1 0.6 2.5 9.6 15.8 8.9 1.2 0.0 0.4 99.1%
9-11 20.3% 95.5% 0.5% 94.9% 8.9 0.0 0.2 1.0 5.2 8.3 4.3 0.4 0.9 95.4%
8-12 3.7% 74.7% 0.5% 74.1% 9.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 0.6 0.9 74.5%
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 97.7% 1.6% 96.2% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.8 10.5 23.9 30.7 20.1 7.0 1.1 2.3 97.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 4.9 2.9 17.6 70.6 8.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 100.0% 5.3 2.4 10.7 47.6 34.5 4.8
Lose Out 2.0% 61.5% 10.4 3.1 32.3 26.2