Oregon
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.4#28
Expected Predictive Rating+19.3#8
Pace69.9#142
Improvement-1.0#229

Offense
Total Offense+6.9#36
First Shot+7.1#26
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#203
Layup/Dunks+3.9#53
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#207
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#153
Freethrows+3.1#30
Improvement-1.3#265

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#34
First Shot+6.0#30
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#134
Layups/Dunks+2.9#75
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#148
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#261
Freethrows+4.1#4
Improvement+0.3#165
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 2.0% 2.3% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 17.7% 19.8% 6.8%
Top 6 Seed 56.9% 60.5% 37.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.3% 98.7% 95.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.2% 98.6% 95.7%
Average Seed 6.1 6.0 7.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 86.4% 89.9% 67.7%
Conference Champion 1.8% 2.0% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four1.2% 0.8% 2.9%
First Round97.7% 98.3% 94.2%
Second Round62.9% 64.2% 56.3%
Sweet Sixteen23.4% 24.6% 17.3%
Elite Eight8.0% 8.5% 5.5%
Final Four2.8% 3.1% 1.5%
Championship Game0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Washington (Home) - 84.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 19 - 7
Quad 26 - 215 - 9
Quad 34 - 019 - 9
Quad 45 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 173   UC Riverside W 91-76 93%     1 - 0 +11.7 +15.7 -4.1
  Nov 08, 2024 226   Montana W 79-48 96%     2 - 0 +24.6 +8.5 +18.4
  Nov 12, 2024 307   Portland W 80-70 OT 98%     3 - 0 -0.9 -9.6 +7.4
  Nov 17, 2024 117   Troy W 82-61 89%     4 - 0 +21.0 +5.4 +14.5
  Nov 21, 2024 72   @ Oregon St. W 78-75 61%     5 - 0 +13.5 +13.3 +0.4
  Nov 26, 2024 21   Texas A&M W 80-70 42%     6 - 0 +25.3 +17.3 +8.2
  Nov 27, 2024 47   San Diego St. W 78-68 59%     7 - 0 +20.9 +17.5 +3.7
  Nov 30, 2024 7   Alabama W 83-81 28%     8 - 0 +21.4 +12.5 +8.9
  Dec 04, 2024 61   @ USC W 68-60 56%     9 - 0 1 - 0 +19.8 +2.4 +17.7
  Dec 08, 2024 31   UCLA L 71-73 62%     9 - 1 1 - 1 +8.3 +8.8 -0.6
  Dec 15, 2024 252   Stephen F. Austin W 79-61 96%     10 - 1 +10.1 +7.1 +2.8
  Dec 21, 2024 88   Stanford W 76-61 75%     11 - 1 +21.5 +6.5 +15.4
  Dec 29, 2024 237   Weber St. W 89-49 96%     12 - 1 +33.0 +10.8 +22.2
  Jan 02, 2025 9   Illinois L 77-109 40%     12 - 2 1 - 2 -16.0 +4.1 -16.8
  Jan 05, 2025 25   Maryland W 83-79 55%     13 - 2 2 - 2 +16.0 +21.3 -5.0
  Jan 09, 2025 36   @ Ohio St. W 73-71 42%     14 - 2 3 - 2 +17.3 +6.5 +10.7
  Jan 12, 2025 48   @ Penn St. W 82-81 49%     15 - 2 4 - 2 +14.5 +13.1 +1.4
  Jan 18, 2025 10   Purdue L 58-65 44%     15 - 3 4 - 3 +8.0 -8.6 +16.5
  Jan 21, 2025 94   Washington W 79-69 84%    
  Jan 25, 2025 98   @ Minnesota W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 30, 2025 31   @ UCLA L 68-70 41%    
  Feb 02, 2025 53   Nebraska W 77-71 71%    
  Feb 05, 2025 11   @ Michigan L 74-81 25%    
  Feb 08, 2025 12   @ Michigan St. L 70-77 27%    
  Feb 11, 2025 55   Northwestern W 72-66 72%    
  Feb 16, 2025 67   Rutgers W 79-71 78%    
  Feb 19, 2025 52   @ Iowa W 84-83 49%    
  Feb 22, 2025 18   @ Wisconsin L 73-78 30%    
  Mar 01, 2025 61   USC W 78-71 75%    
  Mar 04, 2025 56   Indiana W 77-71 73%    
  Mar 09, 2025 94   @ Washington W 76-71 66%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.2 0.5 0.0 5.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.7 4.6 1.1 0.1 8.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.2 7.1 2.7 0.2 12.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 7.5 5.8 0.5 0.0 15.7 5th
6th 0.7 6.6 7.7 1.2 0.0 16.1 6th
7th 0.1 3.1 7.4 2.2 0.0 12.8 7th
8th 0.7 5.4 3.1 0.1 9.3 8th
9th 0.0 2.1 3.4 0.5 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.3 3.1 1.2 0.0 4.6 10th
11th 0.0 1.0 1.7 0.2 3.0 11th
12th 0.1 1.3 0.5 1.9 12th
13th 0.3 0.9 0.1 1.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 14th
15th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.8 8.3 14.0 19.5 19.9 17.1 10.1 4.3 1.3 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 82.4% 0.1    0.1 0.1
16-4 51.2% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 17.7% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0
16-4 1.3% 100.0% 9.4% 90.6% 2.6 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.3% 100.0% 15.6% 84.4% 3.3 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.4 0.4 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.1% 100.0% 8.9% 91.1% 4.3 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.6 3.2 1.0 0.1 100.0%
13-7 17.1% 100.0% 6.1% 93.9% 5.1 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.2 6.5 4.6 1.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 19.9% 99.9% 3.8% 96.2% 5.9 0.3 1.3 5.1 7.7 4.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 99.9%
11-9 19.5% 99.8% 2.8% 97.1% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.2 5.9 7.2 3.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-10 14.0% 99.4% 1.1% 98.2% 7.3 0.0 0.5 2.1 5.4 4.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.4%
9-11 8.3% 97.5% 0.4% 97.1% 8.5 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.7 2.8 1.2 0.2 0.2 97.5%
8-12 3.8% 85.2% 85.2% 9.6 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.6 85.2%
7-13 1.2% 51.7% 51.7% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 51.7%
6-14 0.3% 19.2% 19.2% 11.0 0.1 0.2 19.2%
5-15 0.1% 0.0 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.3% 4.2% 94.0% 6.1 0.3 1.6 5.8 10.0 17.8 21.4 19.9 11.2 6.2 2.9 1.1 0.0 1.8 98.2%