Maryland
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.4#19
Expected Predictive Rating+12.4#44
Pace73.2#74
Improvement-0.3#208

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#36
First Shot+4.1#69
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#44
Layup/Dunks+4.7#41
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#191
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#179
Freethrows-0.1#181
Improvement+0.2#161

Defense
Total Defense+7.8#11
First Shot+6.4#21
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#75
Layups/Dunks+1.4#121
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#301
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#29
Freethrows+2.0#54
Improvement-0.5#231
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.2% 2.2% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 6.5% 6.5% 0.9%
Top 4 Seed 23.0% 23.0% 8.3%
Top 6 Seed 44.4% 44.5% 19.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 84.3% 84.4% 61.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 82.6% 82.7% 59.3%
Average Seed 6.2 6.2 7.6
.500 or above 98.9% 98.9% 92.2%
.500 or above in Conference 83.2% 83.3% 65.1%
Conference Champion 11.6% 11.6% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
First Four3.3% 3.3% 4.6%
First Round82.8% 83.0% 59.2%
Second Round57.6% 57.7% 39.9%
Sweet Sixteen27.5% 27.5% 13.3%
Elite Eight12.2% 12.2% 4.1%
Final Four5.2% 5.2% 3.2%
Championship Game2.1% 2.1% 0.5%
National Champion0.8% 0.8% 0.5%

Next Game: St. Francis (PA) (Home) - 99.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 8
Quad 26 - 212 - 10
Quad 33 - 015 - 10
Quad 48 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 316   Manhattan W 79-49 98%     1 - 0 +18.2 -3.1 +20.7
  Nov 08, 2024 266   Mount St. Mary's W 86-52 97%     2 - 0 +25.3 +9.4 +15.6
  Nov 11, 2024 355   Florida A&M W 84-53 99%     3 - 0 +15.0 +4.0 +10.3
  Nov 15, 2024 13   Marquette L 74-78 58%     3 - 1 +8.3 +9.7 -1.6
  Nov 19, 2024 352   Canisius W 108-37 99%     4 - 1 +55.3 +16.5 +32.9
  Nov 24, 2024 48   Villanova W 76-75 65%     5 - 1 +11.5 +14.9 -3.3
  Nov 27, 2024 260   Bucknell W 91-67 97%     6 - 1 +15.5 +11.1 +2.8
  Dec 01, 2024 343   Alcorn St. W 96-58 99%     7 - 1 +23.7 +12.2 +10.1
  Dec 04, 2024 39   Ohio St. W 83-59 71%     8 - 1 1 - 0 +32.8 +8.8 +22.5
  Dec 08, 2024 22   @ Purdue L 78-83 39%     8 - 2 1 - 1 +12.3 +11.4 +0.9
  Dec 17, 2024 335   St. Francis (PA) W 89-61 99.6%   
  Dec 21, 2024 97   Syracuse W 83-74 80%    
  Dec 28, 2024 358   Maryland Eastern Shore W 89-58 99.9%   
  Jan 02, 2025 96   @ Washington W 77-71 71%    
  Jan 05, 2025 23   @ Oregon L 73-76 40%    
  Jan 10, 2025 17   UCLA W 69-67 59%    
  Jan 13, 2025 114   Minnesota W 74-60 90%    
  Jan 16, 2025 59   @ Northwestern W 69-67 58%    
  Jan 19, 2025 52   Nebraska W 78-71 75%    
  Jan 23, 2025 16   @ Illinois L 75-79 37%    
  Jan 26, 2025 46   @ Indiana W 78-77 52%    
  Jan 29, 2025 35   Wisconsin W 79-74 68%    
  Feb 06, 2025 39   @ Ohio St. L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 09, 2025 62   Rutgers W 81-72 78%    
  Feb 13, 2025 52   @ Nebraska W 75-74 55%    
  Feb 16, 2025 43   Iowa W 85-79 72%    
  Feb 20, 2025 80   USC W 80-69 83%    
  Feb 26, 2025 14   Michigan St. W 74-72 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 31   @ Penn St. L 78-79 46%    
  Mar 05, 2025 20   @ Michigan L 74-77 39%    
  Mar 08, 2025 59   Northwestern W 72-64 77%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.2 3.8 2.3 0.8 0.2 11.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 4.1 4.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 11.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.0 4.8 1.5 0.1 0.0 11.0 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 5.2 2.0 0.2 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.8 3.1 0.3 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 4.5 0.7 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.4 1.8 0.1 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.1 2.6 3.3 0.4 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.5 1.2 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 2.1 2.4 0.2 4.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 2.6 0.7 0.0 4.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.5 1.5 0.1 3.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.1 2.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.4 15th
16th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.7 7.6 10.5 13.0 14.8 14.4 12.3 9.1 5.5 2.6 0.9 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 98.6% 0.8    0.8 0.0
17-3 89.9% 2.3    1.8 0.5 0.0
16-4 68.6% 3.8    2.1 1.4 0.3 0.0
15-5 35.4% 3.2    1.0 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 9.2% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.6% 11.6 5.9 3.6 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 43.0% 57.0% 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.9% 100.0% 35.5% 64.5% 1.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.6% 100.0% 29.9% 70.1% 2.1 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.5% 100.0% 24.4% 75.6% 2.9 0.6 1.5 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 9.1% 100.0% 19.3% 80.7% 3.8 0.3 1.1 2.5 2.7 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 12.3% 99.9% 15.9% 84.0% 4.9 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.1 3.5 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 14.4% 99.5% 11.3% 88.2% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.0 3.7 3.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
12-8 14.8% 97.2% 6.1% 91.1% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.6 3.8 3.5 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.4 97.0%
11-9 13.0% 92.0% 4.7% 87.3% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.2 3.2 2.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 1.0 91.6%
10-10 10.5% 79.7% 3.3% 76.4% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.3 2.1 1.0 0.0 2.1 79.0%
9-11 7.6% 50.7% 1.3% 49.4% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.4 0.1 3.7 50.0%
8-12 4.7% 19.3% 0.8% 18.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 3.8 18.7%
7-13 2.6% 2.1% 0.3% 1.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 1.8%
6-14 1.3% 1.3
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 84.3% 9.8% 74.5% 6.2 2.2 4.3 7.4 9.1 10.6 10.8 11.6 10.6 8.2 5.8 3.6 0.2 15.7 82.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 93.9 6.1