Ohio St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.8#39
Expected Predictive Rating+10.1#61
Pace67.2#230
Improvement-3.6#346

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#37
First Shot+6.7#31
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#185
Layup/Dunks+0.7#155
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#150
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#31
Freethrows+0.2#164
Improvement-2.5#336

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#48
First Shot+8.3#7
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#345
Layups/Dunks+7.6#14
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#206
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#156
Freethrows+0.0#183
Improvement-1.1#271
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.0% 1.0% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 5.6% 5.8% 1.7%
Top 6 Seed 15.6% 16.1% 6.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 51.3% 52.3% 29.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 49.3% 50.3% 28.3%
Average Seed 7.7 7.7 8.3
.500 or above 75.3% 76.4% 50.0%
.500 or above in Conference 59.8% 60.4% 46.1%
Conference Champion 3.6% 3.7% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 1.5% 3.3%
First Four6.8% 6.8% 5.6%
First Round48.1% 49.0% 27.3%
Second Round28.3% 29.0% 15.0%
Sweet Sixteen10.6% 10.8% 5.2%
Elite Eight4.2% 4.3% 1.4%
Final Four1.5% 1.5% 0.4%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Home) - 95.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 11
Quad 25 - 311 - 14
Quad 32 - 013 - 14
Quad 45 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 33   Texas W 80-72 48%     1 - 0 +20.3 +13.2 +7.0
  Nov 11, 2024 211   Youngstown St. W 81-47 94%     2 - 0 +28.6 +8.7 +20.0
  Nov 15, 2024 24   @ Texas A&M L 64-78 31%     2 - 1 +2.9 +3.3 -1.0
  Nov 19, 2024 268   Evansville W 80-30 96%     3 - 1 +41.3 +6.4 +36.6
  Nov 22, 2024 269   Campbell W 104-60 96%     4 - 1 +35.2 +23.9 +9.5
  Nov 25, 2024 331   Green Bay W 102-69 98%     5 - 1 +19.8 +17.3 +1.2
  Nov 29, 2024 32   Pittsburgh L 90-91 OT 59%     5 - 2 +8.4 +14.9 -6.4
  Dec 04, 2024 19   @ Maryland L 59-83 29%     5 - 3 0 - 1 -6.6 -8.1 +2.9
  Dec 07, 2024 62   Rutgers W 80-66 72%     6 - 3 1 - 1 +19.8 +14.8 +5.9
  Dec 14, 2024 1   Auburn L 53-91 15%     6 - 4 -15.3 -8.7 -9.3
  Dec 17, 2024 227   Valparaiso W 83-65 96%    
  Dec 21, 2024 11   Kentucky L 77-83 30%    
  Dec 29, 2024 168   Indiana St. W 87-72 92%    
  Jan 03, 2025 14   Michigan St. L 71-72 48%    
  Jan 06, 2025 114   @ Minnesota W 68-63 69%    
  Jan 09, 2025 23   Oregon W 73-72 53%    
  Jan 14, 2025 35   @ Wisconsin L 73-76 38%    
  Jan 17, 2025 46   Indiana W 78-74 64%    
  Jan 21, 2025 22   @ Purdue L 70-76 31%    
  Jan 27, 2025 43   Iowa W 81-77 63%    
  Jan 30, 2025 31   @ Penn St. L 74-78 36%    
  Feb 02, 2025 16   @ Illinois L 72-78 28%    
  Feb 06, 2025 19   Maryland W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 08, 2025 52   @ Nebraska L 72-73 44%    
  Feb 12, 2025 96   Washington W 77-68 80%    
  Feb 16, 2025 20   Michigan W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 20, 2025 59   Northwestern W 70-64 69%    
  Feb 23, 2025 17   @ UCLA L 63-69 28%    
  Feb 26, 2025 80   @ USC W 73-71 57%    
  Mar 04, 2025 52   Nebraska W 75-70 66%    
  Mar 08, 2025 46   @ Indiana L 75-77 43%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.1 1.5 0.4 0.1 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.5 2.4 2.2 0.5 0.0 5.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.8 1.8 0.1 6.6 5th
6th 0.2 2.8 3.6 0.5 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 4.5 1.7 0.1 7.4 7th
8th 0.2 3.4 3.6 0.4 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.4 4.9 1.4 0.0 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.5 3.5 0.3 7.6 10th
11th 0.1 1.8 4.6 1.2 0.0 7.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 3.6 2.6 0.2 7.0 12th
13th 0.2 2.1 3.2 0.7 0.0 6.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.8 1.4 0.1 5.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 1.7 0.3 4.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.8 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 4.5 7.7 10.7 13.1 14.4 13.4 11.9 8.8 5.9 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 90.1% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 70.6% 1.1    0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 36.5% 1.2    0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 10.3% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.6% 3.6 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 25.8% 74.2% 2.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.6% 100.0% 23.0% 77.0% 2.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.5% 100.0% 20.6% 79.4% 3.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 3.2% 99.8% 17.6% 82.2% 4.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-6 5.9% 99.6% 12.4% 87.2% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
13-7 8.8% 98.1% 9.1% 88.9% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.8 2.3 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.2 97.9%
12-8 11.9% 92.2% 4.6% 87.7% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.2 2.8 2.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.9 91.9%
11-9 13.4% 76.9% 2.5% 74.4% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 2.4 2.3 1.8 0.1 3.1 76.3%
10-10 14.4% 50.4% 1.9% 48.5% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.9 2.8 0.3 7.1 49.4%
9-11 13.1% 19.0% 1.0% 17.9% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.6 18.1%
8-12 10.7% 3.8% 0.5% 3.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 10.3 3.4%
7-13 7.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 7.7 0.1%
6-14 4.5% 4.5
5-15 2.6% 2.6
4-16 1.1% 1.1
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 51.3% 3.9% 47.4% 7.7 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.9 4.4 5.6 7.3 7.9 6.9 6.3 6.5 0.7 0.0 48.7 49.3%