Ohio St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.7#33
Expected Predictive Rating+11.6#50
Pace67.9#191
Improvement-3.0#308

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#35
First Shot+6.5#36
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#146
Layup/Dunks+1.7#121
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#140
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#98
Freethrows+2.0#70
Improvement-1.8#273

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#34
First Shot+10.4#4
After Offensive Rebounds-3.8#360
Layups/Dunks+7.0#16
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#127
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#49
Freethrows-0.8#246
Improvement-1.2#252
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 1.4% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 6.1% 13.2% 2.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 67.2% 85.9% 57.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 66.6% 85.5% 56.4%
Average Seed 9.2 8.5 9.8
.500 or above 95.6% 100.0% 93.2%
.500 or above in Conference 34.2% 64.3% 17.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four17.0% 10.7% 20.5%
First Round60.1% 81.4% 48.6%
Second Round30.3% 44.1% 22.8%
Sweet Sixteen8.8% 13.0% 6.4%
Elite Eight3.4% 5.3% 2.3%
Final Four0.9% 1.4% 0.7%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.0% 0.1%

Next Game: UCLA (Away) - 35.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 10
Quad 24 - 410 - 15
Quad 32 - 012 - 15
Quad 46 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 36   Texas W 80-72 54%     1 - 0 +20.8 +12.0 +8.7
  Nov 11, 2024 186   Youngstown St. W 81-47 94%     2 - 0 +29.9 +7.9 +22.1
  Nov 15, 2024 20   @ Texas A&M L 64-78 32%     2 - 1 +4.5 +5.2 -1.3
  Nov 19, 2024 237   Evansville W 80-30 96%     3 - 1 +43.4 +9.4 +35.8
  Nov 22, 2024 183   Campbell W 104-60 94%     4 - 1 +40.2 +27.4 +11.0
  Nov 25, 2024 337   Green Bay W 102-69 99%     5 - 1 +19.0 +17.8 +0.0
  Nov 29, 2024 52   Pittsburgh L 90-91 OT 71%     5 - 2 +7.1 +12.9 -5.8
  Dec 04, 2024 13   @ Maryland L 59-83 26%     5 - 3 0 - 1 -3.5 -7.4 +5.3
  Dec 07, 2024 63   Rutgers W 80-66 77%     6 - 3 1 - 1 +19.8 +14.2 +6.5
  Dec 14, 2024 1   Auburn L 53-91 18%     6 - 4 -14.4 -6.6 -10.5
  Dec 17, 2024 238   Valparaiso W 95-73 96%     7 - 4 +15.3 +11.0 +2.9
  Dec 21, 2024 17   Kentucky W 85-65 38%     8 - 4 +36.9 +19.4 +18.3
  Dec 29, 2024 203   Indiana St. W 103-83 95%     9 - 4 +15.2 +14.3 -1.3
  Jan 03, 2025 12   Michigan St. L 62-69 42%     9 - 5 1 - 2 +8.7 -1.4 +10.0
  Jan 06, 2025 76   @ Minnesota W 89-88 2OT 64%     10 - 5 2 - 2 +10.9 +10.3 +0.5
  Jan 09, 2025 39   Oregon L 71-73 65%     10 - 6 2 - 3 +7.6 +0.8 +6.8
  Jan 14, 2025 7   @ Wisconsin L 68-70 23%     10 - 7 2 - 4 +19.3 +5.0 +14.2
  Jan 17, 2025 57   Indiana L 76-77 OT 71%     10 - 8 2 - 5 +7.0 +6.2 +0.8
  Jan 21, 2025 16   @ Purdue W 73-70 27%     11 - 8 3 - 5 +23.0 +13.1 +10.1
  Jan 27, 2025 61   Iowa W 82-65 75%     12 - 8 4 - 5 +23.7 +8.5 +15.1
  Jan 30, 2025 62   @ Penn St. W 83-64 60%     13 - 8 5 - 5 +30.1 +18.0 +12.9
  Feb 02, 2025 18   @ Illinois L 79-87 31%     13 - 9 5 - 6 +10.7 +11.4 -0.5
  Feb 06, 2025 13   Maryland W 73-70 43%     14 - 9 6 - 6 +18.4 +8.2 +10.2
  Feb 09, 2025 48   @ Nebraska L 71-79 50%     14 - 10 6 - 7 +5.6 +8.7 -3.5
  Feb 12, 2025 90   Washington W 93-69 84%     15 - 10 7 - 7 +27.2 +22.4 +4.8
  Feb 16, 2025 22   Michigan L 83-86 52%     15 - 11 7 - 8 +10.1 +16.5 -6.4
  Feb 20, 2025 58   Northwestern L 49-70 72%     15 - 12 7 - 9 -13.3 -14.1 -1.6
  Feb 23, 2025 27   @ UCLA L 67-71 35%    
  Feb 26, 2025 59   @ USC W 75-74 52%    
  Mar 04, 2025 48   Nebraska W 75-70 71%    
  Mar 08, 2025 57   @ Indiana W 74-73 51%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.7 3.0 6th
7th 0.1 5.9 3.8 9.8 7th
8th 3.4 14.0 0.8 18.2 8th
9th 0.3 17.1 6.3 0.1 23.8 9th
10th 3.3 13.9 0.2 17.4 10th
11th 0.0 9.3 3.0 12.3 11th
12th 0.5 8.0 0.2 8.7 12th
13th 2.0 2.3 4.3 13th
14th 1.9 0.2 2.1 14th
15th 0.4 0.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 4.8 23.3 37.7 26.7 7.5 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 7.5% 99.7% 4.6% 95.2% 6.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.9 2.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 99.7%
10-10 26.7% 94.1% 2.9% 91.2% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.2 5.7 7.3 5.4 0.9 1.6 93.9%
9-11 37.7% 72.8% 1.5% 71.2% 10.1 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 3.8 8.8 11.8 0.5 10.3 72.3%
8-12 23.3% 30.6% 0.9% 29.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 4.1 1.2 16.2 29.9%
7-13 4.8% 2.3% 2.3% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.7 2.3%
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 67.2% 1.9% 65.3% 9.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.3 4.3 6.2 9.0 11.8 15.6 16.9 1.6 32.8 66.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 3.4 14.7 44.1 26.5 11.8 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 5.3 4.4 17.8 31.1 37.8 8.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1% 100.0% 6.2 4.5 16.2 45.0 25.2 9.0
Lose Out 3.6%