Marquette
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.3#13
Expected Predictive Rating+18.8#11
Pace71.3#109
Improvement-1.2#262

Offense
Total Offense+8.0#23
First Shot+8.0#19
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#180
Layup/Dunks+6.6#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#332
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#56
Freethrows+0.1#174
Improvement-0.3#206

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#15
First Shot+7.5#13
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#196
Layups/Dunks+3.1#77
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#264
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#142
Freethrows+4.1#6
Improvement-0.9#261
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
#1 Seed 6.0% 6.6% 2.3%
Top 2 Seed 16.8% 18.5% 7.6%
Top 4 Seed 46.5% 49.8% 28.3%
Top 6 Seed 72.1% 74.9% 56.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.6% 97.3% 92.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 95.7% 96.6% 90.9%
Average Seed 4.9 4.7 5.9
.500 or above 99.6% 99.8% 98.4%
.500 or above in Conference 93.8% 95.4% 85.1%
Conference Champion 27.1% 29.5% 13.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four1.7% 1.3% 3.7%
First Round95.8% 96.7% 90.6%
Second Round74.1% 76.0% 63.6%
Sweet Sixteen39.8% 41.4% 30.6%
Elite Eight18.1% 19.0% 12.9%
Final Four8.1% 8.6% 5.3%
Championship Game3.5% 3.7% 2.2%
National Champion1.4% 1.5% 0.8%

Next Game: Butler (Home) - 85.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 7
Quad 28 - 215 - 9
Quad 35 - 020 - 9
Quad 44 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 309   Stony Brook W 102-62 98%     1 - 0 +28.9 +24.7 +4.4
  Nov 08, 2024 83   George Mason W 82-63 86%     2 - 0 +22.6 +9.3 +12.5
  Nov 11, 2024 219   Central Michigan W 70-62 96%     3 - 0 +2.2 -7.4 +9.1
  Nov 15, 2024 19   @ Maryland W 78-74 42%     4 - 0 +21.4 +17.3 +4.2
  Nov 19, 2024 22   Purdue W 76-58 65%     5 - 0 +29.3 +8.5 +21.4
  Nov 23, 2024 40   Georgia W 80-69 64%     6 - 0 +22.6 +13.9 +8.7
  Nov 27, 2024 323   Stonehill W 94-59 99%     7 - 0 +22.9 +18.1 +5.7
  Nov 30, 2024 308   Western Carolina W 94-62 98%     8 - 0 +21.0 +6.4 +10.5
  Dec 04, 2024 5   @ Iowa St. L 70-81 24%     8 - 1 +11.5 +7.2 +4.4
  Dec 07, 2024 35   Wisconsin W 88-74 72%     9 - 1 +23.1 +22.6 +1.4
  Dec 14, 2024 38   @ Dayton L 63-71 52%     9 - 2 +6.8 +3.2 +2.5
  Dec 18, 2024 74   Butler W 80-69 85%    
  Dec 21, 2024 53   @ Xavier W 77-75 59%    
  Dec 31, 2024 75   @ Providence W 72-67 68%    
  Jan 03, 2025 36   Creighton W 78-72 72%    
  Jan 07, 2025 90   Georgetown W 80-68 87%    
  Jan 14, 2025 88   @ DePaul W 78-72 72%    
  Jan 18, 2025 53   Xavier W 80-72 78%    
  Jan 21, 2025 117   @ Seton Hall W 69-60 81%    
  Jan 24, 2025 48   Villanova W 76-68 76%    
  Jan 28, 2025 74   @ Butler W 77-72 67%    
  Feb 01, 2025 9   Connecticut W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 04, 2025 15   @ St. John's L 74-77 40%    
  Feb 08, 2025 36   @ Creighton W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 11, 2025 88   DePaul W 81-69 87%    
  Feb 18, 2025 117   Seton Hall W 72-57 92%    
  Feb 21, 2025 48   @ Villanova W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 25, 2025 75   Providence W 75-64 84%    
  Mar 01, 2025 90   @ Georgetown W 77-71 71%    
  Mar 04, 2025 9   @ Connecticut L 72-77 32%    
  Mar 08, 2025 15   St. John's W 77-74 61%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.7 7.4 6.8 4.2 1.6 0.3 27.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.6 7.7 7.8 4.1 1.1 0.1 25.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 4.2 7.0 5.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 19.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.4 4.9 2.7 0.5 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.8 0.8 0.1 4.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.2 5.2 8.3 11.3 13.8 15.0 14.3 11.8 7.9 4.3 1.6 0.3 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.6    1.6 0.0
18-2 97.1% 4.2    3.9 0.3
17-3 86.2% 6.8    5.4 1.4 0.1
16-4 62.8% 7.4    4.5 2.6 0.3 0.0
15-5 33.1% 4.7    1.8 2.2 0.6 0.1
14-6 11.6% 1.7    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 27.1% 27.1 17.8 7.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 53.8% 46.2% 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.6% 100.0% 46.3% 53.7% 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 4.3% 100.0% 39.7% 60.3% 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 7.9% 100.0% 35.0% 65.0% 2.2 1.7 3.3 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 11.8% 100.0% 29.6% 70.4% 2.9 0.9 3.1 4.5 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 14.3% 100.0% 24.7% 75.3% 3.7 0.3 1.6 4.4 4.7 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 15.0% 100.0% 20.7% 79.2% 4.6 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.3 4.4 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 13.8% 99.9% 16.3% 83.6% 5.6 0.0 0.6 2.1 3.7 4.0 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 11.3% 99.4% 12.8% 86.6% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 3.0 3.1 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.3%
11-9 8.3% 98.0% 10.1% 87.9% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.9 2.3 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.2 97.8%
10-10 5.2% 93.6% 6.8% 86.8% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.3 93.1%
9-11 3.2% 76.4% 5.0% 71.4% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.8 75.2%
8-12 1.7% 44.4% 3.4% 41.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.9 42.4%
7-13 0.8% 14.4% 1.2% 13.1% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 13.3%
6-14 0.3% 3.8% 2.5% 1.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3%
5-15 0.1% 3.0% 3.0% 12.0 0.0 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 96.6% 20.6% 75.9% 4.9 6.0 10.9 14.7 15.0 13.6 12.0 9.1 6.5 4.3 2.6 1.7 0.2 3.4 95.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 85.9 12.7 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 66.7 33.3