Butler
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.4#74
Expected Predictive Rating+7.0#90
Pace68.9#179
Improvement-0.5#216

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#62
First Shot+2.5#105
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#74
Layup/Dunks-5.6#341
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#163
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#77
Freethrows+4.7#7
Improvement-0.3#209

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#104
First Shot-0.3#178
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#15
Layups/Dunks-2.0#249
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#318
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#77
Freethrows+0.9#121
Improvement-0.2#209
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 2.7% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.3% 30.5% 12.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.8% 28.4% 11.2%
Average Seed 9.5 9.1 9.6
.500 or above 45.1% 68.2% 41.0%
.500 or above in Conference 30.5% 52.5% 26.7%
Conference Champion 0.8% 2.9% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 12.3% 4.4% 13.7%
First Four4.2% 6.6% 3.8%
First Round12.9% 26.6% 10.4%
Second Round5.2% 11.7% 4.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 3.1% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.9% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marquette (Away) - 15.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 10
Quad 25 - 49 - 14
Quad 33 - 212 - 16
Quad 44 - 116 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 191   Missouri St. W 72-65 86%     1 - 0 +2.5 +0.7 +2.1
  Nov 08, 2024 261   Austin Peay L 66-68 92%     1 - 1 -10.5 -4.2 -6.4
  Nov 11, 2024 295   Western Michigan W 85-65 94%     2 - 1 +10.0 +5.9 +4.0
  Nov 15, 2024 49   SMU W 81-70 50%     3 - 1 +18.3 +11.1 +7.2
  Nov 22, 2024 217   Merrimack W 78-39 89%     4 - 1 +33.2 +16.9 +22.1
  Nov 28, 2024 59   Northwestern W 71-69 43%     5 - 1 +11.2 +8.5 +2.8
  Nov 29, 2024 28   Mississippi St. W 87-77 30%     6 - 1 +22.9 +16.4 +6.2
  Dec 03, 2024 322   Eastern Illinois W 73-58 95%     7 - 1 +2.9 -0.8 +4.3
  Dec 07, 2024 6   @ Houston L 51-79 9%     7 - 2 -6.0 -2.4 -7.6
  Dec 10, 2024 131   North Dakota St. L 68-71 79%     7 - 3 -4.2 +1.1 -5.8
  Dec 14, 2024 35   Wisconsin L 74-83 32%     7 - 4 +3.1 +6.6 -3.7
  Dec 18, 2024 13   @ Marquette L 69-80 15%    
  Dec 21, 2024 9   Connecticut L 70-77 25%    
  Jan 01, 2025 48   Villanova L 71-72 49%    
  Jan 04, 2025 15   @ St. John's L 70-81 16%    
  Jan 08, 2025 75   @ Providence L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 11, 2025 36   Creighton L 73-75 44%    
  Jan 15, 2025 117   Seton Hall W 67-60 75%    
  Jan 21, 2025 9   @ Connecticut L 67-80 11%    
  Jan 25, 2025 88   DePaul W 76-72 65%    
  Jan 28, 2025 13   Marquette L 72-77 33%    
  Jan 31, 2025 90   @ Georgetown L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 05, 2025 117   @ Seton Hall W 64-63 55%    
  Feb 08, 2025 75   Providence W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 15, 2025 90   Georgetown W 75-71 66%    
  Feb 18, 2025 53   @ Xavier L 72-78 31%    
  Feb 22, 2025 88   @ DePaul L 73-75 44%    
  Feb 26, 2025 15   St. John's L 73-78 33%    
  Mar 01, 2025 48   @ Villanova L 69-75 29%    
  Mar 05, 2025 53   Xavier W 76-75 51%    
  Mar 08, 2025 36   @ Creighton L 70-78 25%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 2.9 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 4.2 3.5 0.9 0.1 10.2 5th
6th 0.2 1.7 5.3 4.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 13.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.8 5.0 1.2 0.1 14.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.3 6.1 4.9 1.2 0.1 14.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.3 4.4 1.2 0.1 13.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 4.3 3.1 0.8 0.1 11.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.9 2.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 7.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.5 5.2 8.5 11.3 13.7 13.7 13.2 11.0 8.2 5.4 3.1 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 92.3% 0.0    0.0
17-3 90.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 62.2% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 34.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 12.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 19.0% 81.0% 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.3% 100.0% 13.3% 86.7% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.7% 98.3% 12.3% 86.0% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.1%
14-6 1.7% 93.5% 8.7% 84.8% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 92.9%
13-7 3.1% 83.3% 6.7% 76.6% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.5 82.1%
12-8 5.4% 66.5% 4.7% 61.8% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.0 1.8 64.9%
11-9 8.2% 42.6% 3.6% 39.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.6 0.1 4.7 40.5%
10-10 11.0% 19.0% 2.2% 16.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 0.2 8.9 17.2%
9-11 13.2% 4.0% 1.4% 2.6% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 12.6 2.7%
8-12 13.7% 1.0% 0.8% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.6 0.2%
7-13 13.7% 0.6% 0.6% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.6
6-14 11.3% 0.4% 0.4% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.2
5-15 8.5% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 8.5
4-16 5.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.2
3-17 2.5% 2.5
2-18 1.0% 1.0
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.3% 1.7% 13.5% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 2.9 3.6 4.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 84.7 13.8%