Missouri St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#191
Expected Predictive Rating-1.0#185
Pace66.5#247
Improvement-2.0#302

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#222
First Shot-3.8#291
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#78
Layup/Dunks-5.2#332
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#170
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#159
Freethrows+0.9#118
Improvement+0.9#102

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#160
First Shot+1.2#138
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#257
Layups/Dunks-3.9#322
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#295
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#15
Freethrows+0.5#154
Improvement-3.0#347
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.3% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.4 14.1
.500 or above 27.2% 37.1% 17.0%
.500 or above in Conference 29.8% 34.9% 24.6%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 12.9% 10.5% 15.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round1.8% 2.3% 1.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Santa Barbara (Home) - 50.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 35 - 86 - 15
Quad 47 - 313 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 74   @ Butler L 65-72 14%     0 - 1 +3.4 -1.1 +4.2
  Nov 16, 2024 247   Tulsa W 111-106 3OT 73%     1 - 1 -2.8 -1.8 -2.6
  Nov 19, 2024 162   Texas Arlington W 78-68 57%     2 - 1 +6.8 +0.5 +6.2
  Nov 24, 2024 134   High Point W 71-61 39%     3 - 1 +11.4 -0.6 +12.6
  Nov 25, 2024 150   Boston College L 74-76 OT 43%     3 - 2 -1.6 -0.7 -0.8
  Nov 26, 2024 123   South Dakota St. L 55-75 35%     3 - 3 -17.5 -13.2 -5.7
  Dec 01, 2024 293   @ Oral Roberts W 72-67 60%     4 - 3 +1.1 +3.3 -1.7
  Dec 07, 2024 168   Indiana St. L 77-80 58%     4 - 4 0 - 1 -6.6 +1.0 -7.6
  Dec 14, 2024 68   @ Washington St. L 78-91 13%     4 - 5 -2.0 +11.8 -13.9
  Dec 22, 2024 136   UC Santa Barbara W 71-70 51%    
  Dec 29, 2024 268   @ Evansville W 71-70 55%    
  Jan 01, 2025 227   Valparaiso W 74-69 68%    
  Jan 04, 2025 76   @ Bradley L 65-77 14%    
  Jan 07, 2025 215   Illinois-Chicago W 73-69 65%    
  Jan 11, 2025 169   @ Southern Illinois L 67-71 36%    
  Jan 15, 2025 169   Southern Illinois W 70-68 58%    
  Jan 18, 2025 160   @ Illinois St. L 67-71 35%    
  Jan 21, 2025 99   @ Northern Iowa L 64-74 19%    
  Jan 25, 2025 70   Drake L 61-67 28%    
  Jan 29, 2025 168   @ Indiana St. L 75-79 36%    
  Feb 01, 2025 116   Murray St. L 66-68 44%    
  Feb 05, 2025 99   Northern Iowa L 67-71 37%    
  Feb 08, 2025 129   @ Belmont L 73-79 28%    
  Feb 12, 2025 268   Evansville W 74-67 74%    
  Feb 16, 2025 215   @ Illinois-Chicago L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 19, 2025 227   @ Valparaiso L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 22, 2025 160   Illinois St. W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 26, 2025 129   Belmont L 76-77 49%    
  Mar 02, 2025 70   @ Drake L 58-70 14%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.9 3.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.3 4.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 10.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.5 5.7 2.4 0.2 0.0 12.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.1 3.0 0.4 0.0 13.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.9 3.4 0.5 0.0 13.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.3 3.4 0.6 0.0 12.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.6 4.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 10.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 2.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 7.5 12th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.0 5.4 8.5 11.2 13.3 14.2 13.0 10.6 8.0 5.3 3.2 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 88.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-4 57.4% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 28.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 9.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 26.5% 26.5% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.2% 18.0% 18.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.7% 14.2% 14.2% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6
14-6 1.6% 10.5% 10.5% 12.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.5
13-7 3.2% 7.8% 7.8% 12.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.9
12-8 5.3% 5.1% 5.1% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.0
11-9 8.0% 4.3% 4.3% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.7
10-10 10.6% 1.8% 1.8% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.5
9-11 13.0% 1.0% 1.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.9
8-12 14.2% 0.8% 0.8% 15.5 0.1 0.1 14.1
7-13 13.3% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 13.2
6-14 11.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.2
5-15 8.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.5
4-16 5.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.4
3-17 3.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.0
2-18 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 98.2 0.0%