Texas Arlington
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#162
Expected Predictive Rating-4.1#236
Pace75.2#41
Improvement+1.3#92

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#114
First Shot+2.9#99
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#216
Layup/Dunks-4.3#319
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#288
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.0#8
Freethrows+0.0#175
Improvement-1.0#269

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#255
First Shot+1.5#125
After Offensive Rebounds-4.1#360
Layups/Dunks-1.4#226
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#23
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#119
Freethrows-1.2#262
Improvement+2.3#28
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.7% 11.4% 7.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.7
.500 or above 41.5% 46.3% 23.0%
.500 or above in Conference 69.7% 71.8% 61.6%
Conference Champion 12.7% 13.8% 8.7%
Last Place in Conference 4.2% 3.7% 6.3%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 1.1%
First Round10.5% 11.3% 7.4%
Second Round0.8% 0.8% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Home) - 79.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 84 - 13
Quad 410 - 314 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 101   Louisiana Tech L 77-92 41%     0 - 1 -13.0 +9.1 -22.8
  Nov 13, 2024 80   @ USC L 95-98 17%     0 - 2 +6.9 +15.7 -8.4
  Nov 19, 2024 191   @ Missouri St. L 68-78 43%     0 - 3 -8.5 -3.5 -4.8
  Nov 26, 2024 116   Murray St. L 66-79 37%     0 - 4 -9.8 -6.7 -2.9
  Nov 27, 2024 261   Austin Peay W 68-58 70%     1 - 4 +4.5 +2.9 +2.8
  Nov 28, 2024 98   Rhode Island L 78-83 30%     1 - 5 +0.4 +4.6 -4.0
  Dec 02, 2024 326   @ Louisiana Monroe W 84-70 72%     2 - 5 +7.8 +6.3 +0.9
  Dec 12, 2024 111   @ Arkansas St. L 79-83 25%     2 - 6 +2.7 +10.0 -7.2
  Dec 14, 2024 326   Louisiana Monroe W 77-68 87%     3 - 6 -3.2 +0.7 -3.8
  Dec 18, 2024 268   Evansville W 83-74 79%    
  Dec 21, 2024 77   @ Liberty L 68-78 16%    
  Dec 29, 2024 138   @ Texas St. L 74-78 34%    
  Jan 04, 2025 303   @ Tarleton St. W 76-72 66%    
  Jan 09, 2025 298   @ Utah Tech W 80-76 65%    
  Jan 11, 2025 210   @ Southern Utah L 80-81 47%    
  Jan 16, 2025 165   Utah Valley W 78-75 61%    
  Jan 23, 2025 140   Seattle W 78-76 56%    
  Jan 25, 2025 188   @ Abilene Christian L 77-79 44%    
  Jan 30, 2025 210   Southern Utah W 83-78 68%    
  Feb 01, 2025 298   Utah Tech W 83-73 82%    
  Feb 06, 2025 165   @ Utah Valley L 75-78 40%    
  Feb 08, 2025 140   @ Seattle L 75-79 35%    
  Feb 13, 2025 175   California Baptist W 79-75 63%    
  Feb 15, 2025 102   Grand Canyon L 80-82 43%    
  Feb 22, 2025 303   Tarleton St. W 79-69 82%    
  Feb 27, 2025 102   @ Grand Canyon L 77-85 23%    
  Mar 01, 2025 188   Abilene Christian W 80-76 65%    
  Mar 08, 2025 175   @ California Baptist L 76-78 41%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.0 3.5 1.7 0.6 0.1 12.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 4.7 6.6 3.5 0.8 0.1 16.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 5.9 6.9 2.3 0.3 0.0 16.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 5.4 6.9 1.8 0.1 15.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.6 6.2 1.8 0.1 13.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.5 5.2 1.6 0.1 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.8 1.3 0.1 8.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.0 0.7 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.8 5.4 8.6 11.9 14.3 15.6 14.1 11.3 7.7 4.3 1.8 0.6 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
14-2 97.2% 1.7    1.5 0.2
13-3 81.6% 3.5    2.6 0.9 0.0
12-4 51.9% 4.0    1.9 1.7 0.4 0.0
11-5 20.3% 2.3    0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.6% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 12.7% 12.7 7.2 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 51.2% 51.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.6% 46.0% 46.0% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-2 1.8% 37.2% 37.2% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1
13-3 4.3% 34.0% 34.0% 13.4 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.8
12-4 7.7% 26.2% 26.2% 13.8 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 5.7
11-5 11.3% 20.4% 20.4% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.1 9.0
10-6 14.1% 12.6% 12.6% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.1 12.3
9-7 15.6% 7.1% 7.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.2 14.4
8-8 14.3% 4.0% 4.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 13.7
7-9 11.9% 2.2% 2.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 11.6
6-10 8.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.4
5-11 5.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 5.3
4-12 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.8
3-13 1.2% 1.2
2-14 0.4% 0.4
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.7% 10.7% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.2 3.4 3.4 1.1 89.3 0.0%