Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
95 Grand Canyon 41.6%   13   4 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 8 12 - 4 +5.6      +3.2 87 +2.4 96 74.0 64 +4.3 110 0.0 1
131 Seattle 17.9%   1 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 6 +1.8      -0.1 181 +2.0 109 67.0 241 -5.2 253 0.0 1
162 Texas Arlington 10.0%   2 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 7 -0.2      +1.8 126 -2.0 237 75.2 43 -4.0 234 0.0 1
177 Utah Valley 8.7%   3 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 14 8 - 8 -0.8      -1.0 199 +0.2 164 70.0 158 -1.3 190 0.0 1
184 California Baptist 7.9%   5 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 15 8 - 8 -1.1      +0.7 154 -1.8 228 63.3 320 -2.1 202 0.0 1
201 Southern Utah 6.7%   5 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 13 8 - 8 -1.7      +0.3 169 -2.0 240 72.5 92 +5.4 100 0.0 1
205 Abilene Christian 6.3%   3 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 8 -1.9      -1.4 209 -0.5 191 68.2 208 -0.9 186 0.0 1
290 Utah Tech 0.8%   1 - 7 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 11 -6.8      -4.0 279 -2.8 271 69.9 161 -12.0 336 0.0 1
315 Tarleton St. 0.3%   1 - 7 0 - 0 6 - 22 4 - 12 -8.7      -6.5 345 -2.2 247 66.8 246 -7.9 293 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Grand Canyon 1.9 55.6 20.9 10.8 5.9 3.5 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1
Seattle 3.2 22.2 22.6 17.9 13.1 9.8 7.0 4.4 2.2 0.9
Texas Arlington 4.1 11.9 16.4 16.6 15.4 13.6 11.0 8.3 4.7 2.1
Utah Valley 4.4 9.8 13.6 15.3 15.3 14.2 12.7 10.2 6.3 2.7
California Baptist 4.4 8.3 13.3 15.5 15.5 14.6 13.4 10.7 6.2 2.6
Southern Utah 4.8 6.8 11.0 13.9 14.5 14.3 14.5 12.9 8.4 3.7
Abilene Christian 4.9 6.8 10.5 13.0 14.4 14.7 14.4 12.7 9.1 4.3
Utah Tech 7.0 0.7 1.7 3.5 5.3 8.4 12.3 17.8 27.0 23.4
Tarleton St. 7.7 0.2 0.6 1.8 2.9 4.6 8.4 14.0 25.3 42.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Grand Canyon 12 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.0 2.2 3.9 6.8 10.5 13.8 17.5 17.5 14.2 8.9 3.0
Seattle 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.8 4.6 7.8 11.1 14.1 15.1 14.5 12.0 8.7 5.0 2.0 0.4
Texas Arlington 9 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.9 5.5 8.8 11.5 14.5 14.6 13.8 11.4 7.7 4.3 2.1 0.6 0.1
Utah Valley 8 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.9 7.1 9.9 13.3 14.2 14.7 12.3 9.7 6.3 3.4 1.7 0.5 0.1
California Baptist 8 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 4.0 7.1 10.6 13.6 15.2 14.8 12.4 9.3 5.7 3.1 1.1 0.3 0.1
Southern Utah 8 - 8 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.8 5.5 8.9 12.2 14.3 14.4 13.2 11.7 7.5 4.6 2.4 1.0 0.2 0.1
Abilene Christian 8 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.8 6.0 9.2 11.9 14.3 14.6 13.4 10.7 7.2 4.4 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.1
Utah Tech 5 - 11 1.1 4.3 8.6 14.0 16.0 16.7 14.2 10.6 6.8 4.0 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tarleton St. 4 - 12 3.0 9.0 15.0 17.5 17.1 15.0 10.2 6.2 3.8 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Grand Canyon 55.6% 42.8 10.5 1.9 0.3 0.0
Seattle 22.2% 14.1 6.4 1.4 0.2 0.0
Texas Arlington 11.9% 6.9 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.0
Utah Valley 9.8% 5.3 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0
California Baptist 8.3% 4.3 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
Southern Utah 6.8% 3.7 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.1
Abilene Christian 6.8% 3.7 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
Utah Tech 0.7% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tarleton St. 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Grand Canyon 41.6% 41.5% 0.1% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 3.5 18.2 13.6 4.5 0.7 0.1 58.4 0.1%
Seattle 17.9% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.2 5.8 4.2 3.2 1.2 82.1 0.0%
Texas Arlington 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.6 2.7 2.7 1.2 90.0 0.0%
Utah Valley 8.7% 8.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 2.5 2.7 2.0 0.6 91.3 0.0%
California Baptist 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.6 2.4 0.5 92.1 0.0%
Southern Utah 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 2.2 2.3 1.3 0.2 93.3 0.0%
Abilene Christian 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.1 1.6 0.5 93.7 0.0%
Utah Tech 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 99.2 0.0%
Tarleton St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Grand Canyon 41.6% 0.1% 41.6% 8.6% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 17.9% 0.7% 17.7% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 10.0% 0.6% 9.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 8.7% 0.3% 8.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 7.9% 0.2% 7.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 6.7% 0.1% 6.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 6.3% 0.3% 6.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 99.0% 1.0 1.0 99.0 0.1
2nd Round 13.1% 0.1 86.9 13.1
Sweet Sixteen 3.0% 0.0 97.0 3.0
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0