Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
90 Grand Canyon 48.8%   13   10 - 4 1 - 0 21 - 8 12 - 4 +6.1      +1.4 137 +4.6 60 77.5 18 +4.7 102 +9.2 3
151 Seattle 11.2%   3 - 10 0 - 1 12 - 16 9 - 7 +0.4      -0.3 183 +0.7 152 67.0 233 -5.5 259 -12.6 8
153 Utah Valley 13.0%   7 - 6 1 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 7 +0.4      -3.1 253 +3.5 89 70.1 145 +0.7 157 +8.2 4
163 Texas Arlington 8.8%   5 - 8 0 - 1 13 - 15 8 - 8 -0.2      +2.3 116 -2.5 247 75.1 41 -3.7 227 -18.6 9
169 California Baptist 10.7%   8 - 7 1 - 0 16 - 14 9 - 7 -0.4      +0.9 154 -1.3 213 64.6 281 -0.9 178 +12.6 1
214 Southern Utah 3.7%   5 - 7 0 - 1 12 - 15 7 - 9 -3.0      -1.2 207 -1.8 229 72.6 85 -2.6 204 -6.1 6
230 Abilene Christian 2.4%   5 - 8 0 - 1 11 - 17 6 - 10 -4.0      -5.0 314 +0.9 146 70.5 131 -3.9 233 -11.8 7
275 Tarleton St. 0.9%   3 - 10 1 - 0 8 - 20 6 - 10 -6.4      -6.2 335 -0.1 174 66.3 241 -5.4 257 +12.0 2
298 Utah Tech 0.5%   2 - 11 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 11 -7.4      -3.5 268 -4.0 292 70.0 148 -10.3 318 0.0 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Grand Canyon 1.5 70.9 16.6 6.9 3.2 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Seattle 3.9 9.9 19.6 19.0 16.6 13.0 9.7 6.5 3.9 1.8
Utah Valley 3.4 15.4 24.7 19.1 14.8 11.0 7.5 4.4 2.3 0.8
Texas Arlington 4.4 6.9 14.8 16.7 16.4 15.2 12.4 9.4 5.5 2.6
California Baptist 3.6 12.3 21.9 19.5 16.5 12.0 8.3 5.4 2.9 1.1
Southern Utah 5.4 2.7 8.1 10.9 13.5 14.7 15.7 14.3 12.4 7.8
Abilene Christian 6.1 1.5 4.6 7.3 10.5 13.3 16.1 17.8 16.6 12.2
Tarleton St. 6.5 0.8 2.9 5.1 8.1 11.2 15.5 19.2 21.1 16.0
Utah Tech 7.4 0.3 1.2 2.5 4.1 7.2 10.5 15.0 22.6 36.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Grand Canyon 12 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 4.4 8.4 13.5 18.4 19.7 18.1 11.0 3.4
Seattle 9 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.5 8.1 12.2 15.4 17.3 15.6 12.1 7.2 3.3 1.1 0.2
Utah Valley 9 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.7 5.6 10.1 13.5 16.5 16.9 14.5 10.1 5.6 2.4 0.6 0.1
Texas Arlington 8 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.2 6.4 11.0 14.5 17.1 16.0 13.4 9.2 4.7 2.0 0.6 0.1
California Baptist 9 - 7 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.3 6.7 11.1 15.1 17.4 16.5 13.0 8.5 4.4 1.6 0.5 0.1
Southern Utah 7 - 9 0.0 0.6 1.6 4.2 7.9 11.8 15.3 16.3 15.0 12.2 8.0 4.3 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
Abilene Christian 6 - 10 0.2 1.0 3.1 6.4 11.0 15.0 17.0 16.4 12.9 8.8 4.7 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
Tarleton St. 6 - 10 0.8 3.8 8.9 14.5 17.6 18.1 14.8 10.3 6.2 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Utah Tech 5 - 11 1.3 4.9 10.5 15.6 18.0 17.0 13.3 9.5 5.5 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Grand Canyon 70.9% 57.5 10.8 2.3 0.3 0.0
Seattle 9.9% 4.7 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.0
Utah Valley 15.4% 8.7 5.1 1.4 0.3 0.0
Texas Arlington 6.9% 3.3 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
California Baptist 12.3% 6.5 4.2 1.4 0.2 0.0
Southern Utah 2.7% 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Abilene Christian 1.5% 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Tarleton St. 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Utah Tech 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Grand Canyon 48.8% 48.8% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.7 20.0 19.3 5.2 0.4 0.0 51.2 0.0%
Seattle 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.3 3.6 2.8 88.8 0.0%
Utah Valley 13.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.1 1.1 4.2 5.0 2.5 0.2 87.0 0.0%
Texas Arlington 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.9 3.2 1.0 91.2 0.0%
California Baptist 10.7% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.4 3.6 0.5 89.3 0.0%
Southern Utah 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.7 0.6 96.3 0.0%
Abilene Christian 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.7 97.6 0.0%
Tarleton St. 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 99.1 0.0%
Utah Tech 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Grand Canyon 48.8% 0.0% 48.8% 8.2% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 11.2% 1.6% 10.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 13.0% 0.1% 13.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 8.8% 0.6% 8.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 10.7% 0.1% 10.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 3.7% 0.3% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 2.4% 0.4% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 98.5% 1.0 1.5 98.5 0.0
2nd Round 10.8% 0.1 89.2 10.8
Sweet Sixteen 2.2% 0.0 97.8 2.2
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0