Preseason Rankings
Western Athletic
2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
69 Grand Canyon 48.0%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 7 12 - 4 +8.3      +4.5 64 +3.8 74 69.8 133 0.0 1 0.0 1
127 Seattle 13.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 9 - 7 +2.2      -0.8 197 +3.0 92 67.0 222 0.0 1 0.0 1
145 Texas Arlington 10.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 7 +0.9      +0.8 148 +0.1 166 75.2 36 0.0 1 0.0 1
151 Utah Valley 9.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 8 - 8 +0.5      -1.9 242 +2.4 100 68.5 170 0.0 1 0.0 1
163 California Baptist 8.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 8 - 8 +0.1      -0.2 174 +0.3 157 61.1 347 0.0 1 0.0 1
184 Abilene Christian 6.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 8 -0.8      -1.0 209 +0.2 160 70.5 114 0.0 1 0.0 1
218 Southern Utah 3.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 6 - 10 -2.9      -0.5 188 -2.4 254 72.6 70 0.0 1 0.0 1
221 Tarleton St. 3.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 6 - 10 -3.0      -1.8 234 -1.2 212 66.8 230 0.0 1 0.0 1
276 Utah Tech 1.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 20 5 - 11 -5.5      -2.7 261 -2.8 264 74.0 51 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Grand Canyon 1.9 58.5 19.5 9.6 5.5 3.2 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.2
Seattle 3.8 16.0 19.9 16.5 13.7 11.2 8.5 6.7 4.8 2.6
Texas Arlington 4.3 11.2 16.1 15.7 14.6 12.0 10.7 8.8 6.7 4.2
Utah Valley 4.5 10.1 14.2 14.7 14.2 13.0 11.4 9.9 7.7 4.9
California Baptist 4.6 9.1 13.3 14.5 14.2 13.0 12.0 10.1 8.2 5.5
Abilene Christian 5.0 6.8 11.5 12.6 13.3 13.4 12.8 11.9 10.3 7.4
Southern Utah 5.8 3.5 6.7 9.1 10.7 12.1 13.7 14.9 15.4 13.8
Tarleton St. 5.9 3.2 6.5 8.8 10.6 12.4 13.8 14.9 15.5 14.4
Utah Tech 6.8 1.2 3.1 4.9 6.8 9.1 11.7 15.5 20.1 27.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Grand Canyon 12 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.7 5.8 8.2 11.1 14.4 16.4 16.2 13.3 6.6
Seattle 9 - 7 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.2 4.9 7.4 9.4 11.4 12.5 12.8 11.7 9.9 7.2 4.3 2.0 0.5
Texas Arlington 9 - 7 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.7 4.6 7.0 8.9 11.0 12.2 12.5 11.9 10.2 7.8 4.9 2.8 1.2 0.3
Utah Valley 8 - 8 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.3 5.3 7.6 10.0 11.3 12.7 12.5 10.7 9.1 7.0 4.4 2.4 1.0 0.2
California Baptist 8 - 8 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.5 5.8 8.0 10.1 11.9 12.7 12.3 10.9 8.7 6.3 4.0 2.2 0.8 0.2
Abilene Christian 8 - 8 0.3 1.1 2.6 4.9 7.0 9.6 11.2 12.4 12.5 11.2 9.6 7.5 5.1 3.0 1.4 0.5 0.1
Southern Utah 6 - 10 0.8 2.5 5.3 8.0 10.8 12.3 12.6 12.2 10.8 8.9 6.5 4.5 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
Tarleton St. 6 - 10 0.8 2.6 5.5 8.2 10.8 12.4 12.8 12.2 11.0 8.5 6.4 4.2 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
Utah Tech 5 - 11 2.5 6.2 10.2 13.0 13.9 13.3 11.8 9.8 7.4 5.2 3.2 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Grand Canyon 58.5% 46.8 9.8 1.6 0.2 0.0
Seattle 16.0% 10.2 4.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
Texas Arlington 11.2% 6.8 3.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
Utah Valley 10.1% 6.0 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0
California Baptist 9.1% 5.3 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
Abilene Christian 6.8% 3.9 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
Southern Utah 3.5% 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Tarleton St. 3.2% 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Utah Tech 1.2% 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Grand Canyon 48.0% 44.9% 3.1% 12   0.4 0.5 0.8 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.9 2.9 9.6 15.0 7.2 2.1 0.5 0.1 52.0 5.6%
Seattle 13.9% 13.5% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.6 4.5 3.8 1.9 0.9 0.3 86.1 0.5%
Texas Arlington 10.1% 9.8% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.8 3.0 1.7 0.8 0.3 89.9 0.3%
Utah Valley 9.2% 9.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 2.2 2.5 2.0 1.3 0.5 90.9 0.2%
California Baptist 8.5% 8.4% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 2.2 2.4 1.8 0.9 0.2 91.5 0.2%
Abilene Christian 6.5% 6.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.9 1.5 0.9 0.3 93.5 0.1%
Southern Utah 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.2 96.6 0.0%
Tarleton St. 3.3% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 96.7 0.0%
Utah Tech 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 98.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Grand Canyon 48.0% 1.4% 47.4% 18.0% 6.7% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
Seattle 13.9% 0.4% 13.8% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 10.1% 0.3% 9.9% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 9.2% 0.3% 9.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 8.5% 0.2% 8.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 6.5% 0.2% 6.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 3.4% 0.1% 3.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 3.3% 0.4% 3.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 1.4% 0.2% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 95.8 4.2 0.0 0.0
1st Round 99.4% 1.0 0.6 96.1 3.2 0.0 0.0
2nd Round 26.7% 0.3 73.3 26.3 0.3
Sweet Sixteen 8.9% 0.1 91.1 8.9 0.0
Elite Eight 2.8% 0.0 97.2 2.8 0.0
Final Four 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Final Game 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1