Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#140
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#114
Pace69.9#140
Improvement+2.8#63

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#223
First Shot-2.8#260
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#119
Layup/Dunks+3.1#76
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#182
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#336
Freethrows-0.3#191
Improvement+1.3#100

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#87
First Shot+0.7#156
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#19
Layups/Dunks-1.6#239
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#120
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#104
Freethrows-0.3#200
Improvement+1.4#108
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.0% 21.7% 16.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 13.8
.500 or above 97.7% 99.5% 96.1%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.9% 98.3%
Conference Champion 39.3% 51.7% 28.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round19.0% 21.7% 16.6%
Second Round1.4% 1.8% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Away) - 46.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 36 - 47 - 9
Quad 411 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 131   UTEP W 89-60 59%     1 - 0 +28.1 +8.4 +17.1
  Nov 14, 2024 277   @ North Dakota L 71-77 69%     1 - 1 -9.8 -8.3 -1.4
  Nov 22, 2024 142   @ Murray St. W 77-75 39%     2 - 1 +6.2 +9.2 -2.9
  Nov 26, 2024 349   West Georgia W 77-74 90%     3 - 1 -9.5 -3.9 -5.7
  Nov 27, 2024 115   @ Samford L 76-84 34%     3 - 2 -2.3 -3.6 +2.0
  Nov 28, 2024 112   North Dakota St. L 63-83 44%     3 - 3 -16.9 -2.1 -18.3
  Dec 03, 2024 87   @ Stanford L 63-77 23%     3 - 4 -4.8 -10.7 +6.6
  Dec 07, 2024 149   @ James Madison L 61-78 41%     3 - 5 -13.2 -4.9 -9.7
  Dec 11, 2024 277   North Dakota W 80-57 84%     4 - 5 +13.7 +3.0 +12.0
  Dec 14, 2024 162   @ Jacksonville St. L 66-70 44%     4 - 6 -1.0 -5.4 +4.3
  Dec 18, 2024 217   @ Idaho St. W 70-56 57%     5 - 6 +13.6 -4.0 +17.4
  Dec 21, 2024 237   @ Weber St. W 64-62 62%     6 - 6 +0.4 +0.7 +0.1
  Jan 04, 2025 242   Abilene Christian W 64-53 79%     7 - 6 1 - 0 +3.8 -10.7 +14.2
  Jan 09, 2025 83   Grand Canyon W 72-64 40%     8 - 6 2 - 0 +12.0 +2.9 +9.2
  Jan 11, 2025 172   California Baptist W 75-69 68%     9 - 6 3 - 0 +2.8 -1.8 +4.5
  Jan 16, 2025 201   @ Texas Arlington W 85-83 OT 52%     10 - 6 4 - 0 +2.9 +2.7 +0.0
  Jan 18, 2025 284   Utah Tech W 96-80 86%     11 - 6 5 - 0 +6.1 +17.9 -11.8
  Jan 23, 2025 172   @ California Baptist L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 25, 2025 150   @ Seattle L 68-70 39%    
  Feb 01, 2025 83   @ Grand Canyon L 69-77 22%    
  Feb 06, 2025 201   Texas Arlington W 78-72 73%    
  Feb 08, 2025 262   Tarleton St. W 70-60 83%    
  Feb 15, 2025 240   @ Southern Utah W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 20, 2025 284   @ Utah Tech W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 22, 2025 150   Seattle W 70-67 62%    
  Mar 01, 2025 240   Southern Utah W 76-67 79%    
  Mar 06, 2025 242   @ Abilene Christian W 69-66 60%    
  Mar 08, 2025 262   @ Tarleton St. W 67-63 66%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.4 3.1 9.4 13.0 9.3 3.6 0.6 39.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 6.3 13.9 11.9 4.7 0.6 38.4 2nd
3rd 0.5 4.0 6.4 3.3 0.5 0.0 14.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 2.7 0.9 0.1 5.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.1 7.8 14.0 20.4 21.8 17.7 9.9 3.6 0.6 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
15-1 100.0% 3.6    3.3 0.2
14-2 93.8% 9.3    7.7 1.6
13-3 73.5% 13.0    8.3 4.6 0.1
12-4 43.0% 9.4    3.7 4.7 0.9 0.0
11-5 15.1% 3.1    0.6 1.6 0.8 0.1
10-6 2.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 39.3% 39.3 24.2 12.9 2.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.6% 41.4% 41.4% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3
15-1 3.6% 35.7% 35.7% 12.7 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 2.3
14-2 9.9% 30.1% 30.1% 13.1 0.0 0.4 1.8 0.7 0.1 6.9
13-3 17.7% 26.6% 26.6% 13.5 0.3 2.2 2.0 0.2 13.0
12-4 21.8% 21.4% 21.4% 13.8 0.1 1.4 2.6 0.6 0.0 17.2
11-5 20.4% 15.3% 15.3% 14.1 0.5 1.9 0.7 0.0 17.3
10-6 14.0% 9.3% 9.3% 14.3 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 12.7
9-7 7.8% 7.0% 7.0% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 7.3
8-8 3.1% 2.2% 2.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 3.1
7-9 0.8% 6.6% 6.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.7
6-10 0.2% 0.2
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 19.0% 19.0% 0.0% 13.6 0.1 1.3 6.7 8.2 2.5 0.1 81.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.9 25.0 62.5 12.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%