Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#137
Expected Predictive Rating-3.5#235
Pace69.0#189
Improvement-0.8#288

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#209
First Shot-1.3#220
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#180
Layup/Dunks-7.2#349
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#159
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#159
Freethrows+5.1#13
Improvement-0.4#242

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#95
First Shot+3.1#93
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#206
Layups/Dunks-2.1#243
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#118
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.0#23
Freethrows-2.9#324
Improvement-0.5#258
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.9% 20.6% 13.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 12.9 13.5
.500 or above 71.0% 85.8% 64.7%
.500 or above in Conference 78.4% 85.7% 75.3%
Conference Champion 19.8% 26.7% 16.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 1.3% 2.8%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round15.8% 20.5% 13.8%
Second Round2.1% 3.3% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Away) - 29.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 66 - 10
Quad 411 - 317 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 203   UTEP W 89-60 74%     1 - 0 +23.9 +7.7 +13.4
  Nov 14, 2024 255   @ North Dakota L 71-77 63%     1 - 1 -7.8 -3.3 -4.4
  Nov 22, 2024 109   @ Murray St. L 65-71 30%    
  Nov 26, 2024 353   West Georgia W 78-63 91%    
  Nov 27, 2024 127   @ Samford L 76-80 36%    
  Nov 28, 2024 242   North Dakota St. W 73-67 69%    
  Dec 03, 2024 67   @ Stanford L 65-75 19%    
  Dec 07, 2024 128   @ James Madison L 70-74 37%    
  Dec 11, 2024 255   North Dakota W 75-66 80%    
  Dec 14, 2024 184   @ Jacksonville St. L 65-66 49%    
  Dec 18, 2024 236   @ Idaho St. W 65-63 58%    
  Dec 21, 2024 225   @ Weber St. W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 04, 2025 209   Abilene Christian W 73-66 73%    
  Jan 09, 2025 89   Grand Canyon L 71-72 46%    
  Jan 11, 2025 181   California Baptist W 71-65 69%    
  Jan 16, 2025 164   @ Texas Arlington L 75-76 46%    
  Jan 18, 2025 304   Utah Tech W 78-66 86%    
  Jan 23, 2025 181   @ California Baptist L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 25, 2025 136   @ Seattle L 68-71 40%    
  Feb 01, 2025 89   @ Grand Canyon L 68-75 27%    
  Feb 06, 2025 164   Texas Arlington W 78-73 66%    
  Feb 08, 2025 317   Tarleton St. W 76-63 87%    
  Feb 15, 2025 205   @ Southern Utah W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 20, 2025 304   @ Utah Tech W 75-69 71%    
  Feb 22, 2025 136   Seattle W 71-68 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 205   Southern Utah W 76-69 72%    
  Mar 06, 2025 209   @ Abilene Christian W 70-69 53%    
  Mar 08, 2025 317   @ Tarleton St. W 73-66 72%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.4 6.1 4.6 2.1 0.5 19.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.6 7.3 5.9 2.2 0.3 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.3 7.4 3.9 0.7 0.0 17.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.2 6.2 2.6 0.3 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.5 5.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.6 1.3 0.1 8.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.4 0.8 0.0 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.8 6.0 8.6 11.3 13.0 13.9 13.3 11.1 8.3 5.0 2.1 0.5 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
15-1 100.0% 2.1    2.0 0.1
14-2 93.4% 4.6    3.9 0.8 0.0
13-3 73.4% 6.1    3.9 2.0 0.2
12-4 40.1% 4.4    1.8 2.1 0.6 0.0
11-5 13.5% 1.8    0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1
10-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 19.8% 19.8 12.4 5.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.5% 58.0% 54.2% 3.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.2%
15-1 2.1% 52.3% 52.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0
14-2 5.0% 40.6% 40.6% 0.1% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.9 0.1%
13-3 8.3% 36.7% 36.7% 12.9 0.0 1.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.2
12-4 11.1% 28.6% 28.6% 13.3 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 7.9
11-5 13.3% 21.1% 21.1% 13.7 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.0 10.5
10-6 13.9% 12.2% 12.2% 14.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 12.2
9-7 13.0% 7.4% 7.4% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 12.1
8-8 11.3% 4.3% 4.3% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 10.8
7-9 8.6% 2.4% 2.4% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.4
6-10 6.0% 1.5% 1.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.9
5-11 3.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.7
4-12 2.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.0
3-13 0.8% 0.8
2-14 0.3% 0.3
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.9% 15.9% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.5 5.4 3.9 1.9 0.5 84.1 0.0%