Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#125
Expected Predictive Rating+4.8#99
Pace69.3#143
Improvement+2.3#94

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#201
First Shot-2.1#237
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#113
Layup/Dunks+3.5#61
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#181
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#332
Freethrows-0.1#178
Improvement+1.9#91

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#89
First Shot+0.5#165
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#19
Layups/Dunks-1.7#243
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#133
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#106
Freethrows-0.3#203
Improvement+0.3#175
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.4% 29.0% 23.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 13.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 87.2% 94.1% 72.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round27.4% 29.0% 23.9%
Second Round1.9% 2.1% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Seattle (Home) - 68.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 41 - 4
Quad 37 - 38 - 7
Quad 413 - 221 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 139   UTEP W 89-60 63%     1 - 0 +27.6 +8.3 +16.7
  Nov 14, 2024 278   @ North Dakota L 71-77 72%     1 - 1 -9.9 -8.4 -1.5
  Nov 22, 2024 156   @ Murray St. W 77-75 46%     2 - 1 +5.0 +9.3 -4.2
  Nov 26, 2024 348   West Georgia W 77-74 91%     3 - 1 -9.8 -4.1 -5.7
  Nov 27, 2024 113   @ Samford L 76-84 37%     3 - 2 -2.5 -1.8 +0.1
  Nov 28, 2024 136   North Dakota St. L 63-83 53%     3 - 3 -18.7 -3.2 -19.0
  Dec 03, 2024 88   @ Stanford L 63-77 26%     3 - 4 -5.1 -9.7 +5.3
  Dec 07, 2024 138   @ James Madison L 61-78 43%     3 - 5 -13.2 -6.4 -8.2
  Dec 11, 2024 278   North Dakota W 80-57 85%     4 - 5 +14.0 +3.2 +12.1
  Dec 14, 2024 124   @ Jacksonville St. L 66-70 40%     4 - 6 +0.6 -3.3 +3.8
  Dec 18, 2024 229   @ Idaho St. W 70-56 62%     5 - 6 +12.9 -5.3 +17.9
  Dec 21, 2024 297   @ Weber St. W 64-62 75%     6 - 6 -3.1 -0.2 -2.5
  Jan 04, 2025 211   Abilene Christian W 64-53 76%     7 - 6 1 - 0 +5.8 -9.6 +15.1
  Jan 09, 2025 89   Grand Canyon W 72-64 45%     8 - 6 2 - 0 +11.3 +3.4 +7.9
  Jan 11, 2025 158   California Baptist W 75-69 66%     9 - 6 3 - 0 +3.7 -0.9 +4.4
  Jan 16, 2025 205   @ Texas Arlington W 85-83 OT 57%     10 - 6 4 - 0 +2.2 +2.0 +0.0
  Jan 18, 2025 290   Utah Tech W 96-80 86%     11 - 6 5 - 0 +6.4 +16.7 -10.3
  Jan 23, 2025 158   @ California Baptist W 74-69 47%     12 - 6 6 - 0 +7.8 +5.0 +3.0
  Jan 25, 2025 165   @ Seattle W 70-66 49%     13 - 6 7 - 0 +6.3 +2.6 +3.9
  Feb 01, 2025 89   @ Grand Canyon L 57-75 27%     13 - 7 7 - 1 -9.6 -10.3 +1.0
  Feb 06, 2025 205   Texas Arlington W 94-73 75%     14 - 7 8 - 1 +16.1 +17.6 -1.3
  Feb 08, 2025 273   Tarleton St. W 81-56 85%     15 - 7 9 - 1 +16.1 +12.6 +4.9
  Feb 15, 2025 282   @ Southern Utah W 70-68 72%     16 - 7 10 - 1 -2.1 +0.2 -2.2
  Feb 20, 2025 290   @ Utah Tech W 79-77 OT 74%     17 - 7 11 - 1 -2.5 -0.2 -2.3
  Feb 22, 2025 165   Seattle W 71-66 68%    
  Mar 01, 2025 282   Southern Utah W 77-66 87%    
  Mar 06, 2025 211   @ Abilene Christian W 69-67 57%    
  Mar 08, 2025 273   @ Tarleton St. W 68-62 69%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 14 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.5 19.0 40.9 24.7 87.2 1st
2nd 0.7 5.2 6.9 12.8 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.8 7.7 25.9 40.9 24.7 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 24.7    24.7
14-2 100.0% 40.9    29.3 11.7
13-3 73.4% 19.0    8.3 10.8
12-4 32.5% 2.5    0.6 1.9
11-5 7.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total 87.2% 87.2 62.8 24.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 24.7% 32.2% 32.2% 12.9 0.0 2.1 4.6 1.3 16.8
14-2 40.9% 28.1% 28.1% 13.4 0.0 0.7 5.6 4.7 0.5 0.0 29.4
13-3 25.9% 24.3% 24.3% 13.8 0.1 1.9 3.4 0.9 0.0 19.6
12-4 7.7% 20.3% 20.3% 14.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 6.1
11-5 0.8% 11.8% 11.8% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 27.4% 27.4% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 2.9 12.3 10.4 1.7 0.0 72.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.0% 100.0% 12.9 0.3 26.5 57.5 15.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 9.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 7.3%