Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.6#230
Expected Predictive Rating-4.8#247
Pace62.1#341
Improvement-0.6#227

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#275
First Shot-8.1#353
After Offensive Rebound+4.3#18
Layup/Dunks-3.3#283
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#197
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#333
Freethrows+1.6#100
Improvement+1.8#46

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#166
First Shot+0.8#144
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#224
Layups/Dunks+1.0#145
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#40
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#267
Freethrows+0.0#190
Improvement-2.4#349
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.0% 10.2% 6.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 36.6% 50.4% 26.3%
.500 or above in Conference 56.8% 64.5% 51.0%
Conference Champion 9.1% 11.9% 7.1%
Last Place in Conference 9.4% 6.8% 11.3%
First Four1.5% 1.1% 1.8%
First Round7.4% 9.6% 5.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Away) - 42.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 53 - 9
Quad 410 - 613 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 60   @ Arizona St. L 48-55 8%     0 - 1 +5.3 -16.2 +21.2
  Nov 07, 2024 102   @ USC L 69-75 15%     0 - 2 +1.5 +2.1 -0.9
  Nov 16, 2024 300   @ San Diego W 78-66 53%     1 - 2 +7.7 +0.0 +6.7
  Nov 18, 2024 261   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 61-62 46%     1 - 3 -3.6 -3.7 +0.0
  Nov 20, 2024 19   @ UCLA L 70-84 4%     1 - 4 +3.7 +16.8 -14.8
  Dec 04, 2024 243   @ South Dakota L 72-74 43%    
  Dec 07, 2024 266   Oral Roberts W 71-66 69%    
  Dec 18, 2024 177   Utah Valley W 67-66 51%    
  Jan 02, 2025 294   @ Northern Arizona W 66-65 51%    
  Jan 04, 2025 153   @ Northern Colorado L 66-73 26%    
  Jan 11, 2025 199   Weber St. W 65-64 54%    
  Jan 16, 2025 138   Montana St. L 65-67 43%    
  Jan 18, 2025 206   Montana W 68-67 55%    
  Jan 23, 2025 307   @ Sacramento St. W 62-61 54%    
  Jan 25, 2025 258   @ Portland St. L 69-70 45%    
  Jan 30, 2025 239   Eastern Washington W 73-69 63%    
  Feb 01, 2025 288   Idaho W 69-63 71%    
  Feb 03, 2025 153   Northern Colorado L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 08, 2025 199   @ Weber St. L 62-67 33%    
  Feb 13, 2025 206   @ Montana L 65-70 35%    
  Feb 15, 2025 138   @ Montana St. L 62-70 24%    
  Feb 20, 2025 258   Portland St. W 72-67 66%    
  Feb 22, 2025 307   Sacramento St. W 65-58 72%    
  Feb 27, 2025 288   @ Idaho W 66-65 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 239   @ Eastern Washington L 70-72 42%    
  Mar 03, 2025 294   Northern Arizona W 69-63 71%    
Projected Record 12 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.3 2.2 2.5 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 9.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.1 3.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 10.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.2 3.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 11.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.1 5.5 2.7 0.5 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.9 6.2 2.9 0.3 0.0 12.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.5 3.1 0.4 0.0 11.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.7 2.8 0.4 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.9 2.6 0.4 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.8 3.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.7 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.2 3.7 6.1 8.2 10.0 11.9 13.1 11.6 10.4 9.0 5.9 3.6 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 95.9% 0.8    0.8 0.0
15-3 88.7% 1.9    1.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 69.4% 2.5    1.6 0.8 0.1
13-5 37.2% 2.2    0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0
12-6 14.4% 1.3    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.1% 9.1 5.3 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 60.0% 60.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 47.8% 47.8% 12.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.8% 39.0% 39.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-3 2.1% 35.5% 35.5% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3
14-4 3.6% 25.6% 25.6% 14.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.7
13-5 5.9% 19.8% 19.8% 14.6 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 4.7
12-6 9.0% 13.8% 13.8% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 7.7
11-7 10.4% 11.1% 11.1% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 9.2
10-8 11.6% 8.2% 8.2% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.6 10.7
9-9 13.1% 5.8% 5.8% 15.8 0.1 0.6 12.3
8-10 11.9% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3 11.6
7-11 10.0% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 9.9
6-12 8.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 8.2
5-13 6.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.1
4-14 3.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.7
3-15 2.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.2
2-16 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.7 2.8 92.0 0.0%