Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#232
Expected Predictive Rating-5.7#259
Pace63.5#311
Improvement-2.0#277

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#261
First Shot-8.5#356
After Offensive Rebound+5.2#4
Layup/Dunks-5.0#338
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#162
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#322
Freethrows+1.0#119
Improvement+0.1#165

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#192
First Shot+1.6#124
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#336
Layups/Dunks+3.5#60
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#99
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#264
Freethrows-1.2#275
Improvement-2.1#302
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 10.0% 7.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 30.4% 38.8% 17.0%
.500 or above in Conference 64.8% 74.9% 48.8%
Conference Champion 9.8% 13.6% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 5.2% 2.8% 9.1%
First Four2.7% 2.5% 3.2%
First Round7.5% 8.9% 5.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Weber St. (Home) - 61.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 52 - 9
Quad 411 - 712 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 56   @ Arizona St. L 48-55 7%     0 - 1 +5.4 -14.5 +19.5
  Nov 07, 2024 71   @ USC L 69-75 9%     0 - 2 +4.5 +5.1 -0.9
  Nov 16, 2024 296   @ San Diego W 78-66 51%     1 - 2 +7.7 -0.4 +7.1
  Nov 18, 2024 319   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 61-62 59%     1 - 3 -7.3 -5.8 -1.7
  Nov 20, 2024 27   @ UCLA L 70-84 4%     1 - 4 +2.8 +17.2 -16.1
  Dec 04, 2024 250   @ South Dakota L 80-94 42%     1 - 5 -15.9 +5.0 -21.5
  Dec 07, 2024 312   Oral Roberts W 71-55 77%     2 - 5 +4.3 -8.0 +13.1
  Dec 18, 2024 137   Utah Valley L 56-70 41%     2 - 6 -15.8 -15.3 -0.2
  Jan 02, 2025 262   @ Northern Arizona W 72-67 45%     3 - 6 1 - 0 +2.4 -0.2 +2.8
  Jan 04, 2025 174   @ Northern Colorado L 92-93 OT 27%     3 - 7 1 - 1 +1.3 +8.0 -6.6
  Jan 11, 2025 227   Weber St. W 69-66 62%    
  Jan 16, 2025 186   Montana St. W 68-67 51%    
  Jan 18, 2025 187   Montana W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 23, 2025 338   @ Sacramento St. W 65-61 64%    
  Jan 25, 2025 254   @ Portland St. L 67-69 43%    
  Jan 30, 2025 259   Eastern Washington W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 01, 2025 236   Idaho W 70-67 62%    
  Feb 03, 2025 174   Northern Colorado L 73-74 50%    
  Feb 08, 2025 227   @ Weber St. L 66-69 39%    
  Feb 13, 2025 187   @ Montana L 68-74 30%    
  Feb 15, 2025 186   @ Montana St. L 65-71 30%    
  Feb 20, 2025 254   Portland St. W 70-66 66%    
  Feb 22, 2025 338   Sacramento St. W 68-58 82%    
  Feb 27, 2025 236   @ Idaho L 67-70 40%    
  Mar 01, 2025 259   @ Eastern Washington L 70-71 45%    
  Mar 03, 2025 262   Northern Arizona W 73-68 67%    
Projected Record 11 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.6 3.1 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 9.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.8 5.4 2.8 0.8 0.1 13.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.7 6.3 2.7 0.4 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.3 3.7 7.1 2.4 0.1 13.6 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 6.9 2.8 0.2 12.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 6.2 3.2 0.1 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 4.1 3.5 0.3 0.0 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.3 3.3 0.7 8.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.9 2.1 0.6 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.6 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.5 6.6 9.6 13.1 14.8 15.3 13.0 9.8 6.3 3.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
15-3 93.5% 1.3    1.1 0.2
14-4 79.2% 2.9    2.0 0.7 0.1
13-5 49.4% 3.1    1.2 1.5 0.3 0.0
12-6 16.4% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1
11-7 2.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.8% 9.8 5.3 3.2 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 31.7% 31.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.4% 31.8% 31.8% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.4% 32.3% 32.3% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.0
14-4 3.7% 25.0% 25.0% 14.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 2.8
13-5 6.3% 20.5% 20.5% 14.9 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 5.0
12-6 9.8% 14.0% 14.0% 15.3 0.0 0.8 0.5 8.4
11-7 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 15.6 0.6 1.0 11.3
10-8 15.3% 9.0% 9.0% 15.9 0.1 1.3 13.9
9-9 14.8% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8 14.0
8-10 13.1% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.5 12.6
7-11 9.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 9.5
6-12 6.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 6.5
5-13 3.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 3.5
4-14 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.2% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 2.8 4.6 91.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%