Idaho
Big Sky
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.2#253
Expected Predictive Rating-5.0#249
Pace65.8#243
Improvement+1.1#137

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#133
First Shot+0.4#157
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#126
Layup/Dunks-0.6#200
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#265
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#53
Freethrows-2.2#308
Improvement+0.7#148

Defense
Total Defense-6.4#344
First Shot-6.3#346
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#197
Layups/Dunks-0.8#203
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#345
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#256
Freethrows-1.4#274
Improvement+0.5#162
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.8% 7.2% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 2.1% 7.1% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 58.8% 90.7% 50.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.1% 5.1% 3.8%
First Round3.0% 5.2% 2.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Colorado (Away) - 19.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 63 - 11
Quad 49 - 712 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 222   UC Davis L 75-79 52%     0 - 1 -9.8 +1.5 -11.1
  Nov 11, 2024 107   @ Washington St. L 67-90 15%     0 - 2 -16.9 -7.2 -8.5
  Nov 16, 2024 26   @ BYU L 71-95 3%     0 - 3 -6.6 +2.6 -8.6
  Nov 23, 2024 282   Southern Utah L 67-82 56%     0 - 4 -21.7 +6.5 -31.4
  Nov 24, 2024 314   @ San Diego L 61-68 55%     0 - 5 -13.6 -13.9 +0.3
  Nov 30, 2024 149   UC Riverside W 80-68 37%     1 - 5 +10.1 +13.8 -2.4
  Dec 04, 2024 245   @ UMKC W 82-77 39%     2 - 5 +2.8 +12.0 -9.1
  Dec 07, 2024 87   @ Oregon St. L 62-78 10%     2 - 6 -7.1 -2.3 -6.6
  Dec 15, 2024 54   UC San Diego L 56-80 11%     2 - 7 -16.0 -10.4 -6.6
  Dec 18, 2024 222   @ UC Davis L 66-74 33%     2 - 8 -8.7 -2.9 -5.7
  Dec 21, 2024 277   @ Pacific W 95-72 45%     3 - 8 +19.1 +25.8 -5.4
  Jan 02, 2025 188   Montana St. W 69-64 46%     4 - 8 1 - 0 +0.9 -4.9 +5.7
  Jan 04, 2025 182   Montana L 71-73 44%     4 - 9 1 - 1 -5.7 -4.7 -1.0
  Jan 09, 2025 332   @ Sacramento St. W 80-67 61%     5 - 9 2 - 1 +4.8 +15.6 -9.1
  Jan 11, 2025 201   @ Portland St. L 63-75 30%     5 - 10 2 - 2 -11.6 -3.1 -9.3
  Jan 18, 2025 265   Eastern Washington W 83-76 61%     6 - 10 3 - 2 -1.0 +9.8 -10.5
  Jan 20, 2025 182   @ Montana L 67-72 26%     6 - 11 3 - 3 -3.6 -2.2 -1.8
  Jan 23, 2025 151   Northern Colorado W 77-76 37%     7 - 11 4 - 3 -0.9 +7.3 -8.1
  Jan 25, 2025 264   Northern Arizona L 72-80 61%     7 - 12 4 - 4 -16.0 +1.3 -18.0
  Jan 30, 2025 297   @ Weber St. W 82-74 49%     8 - 12 5 - 4 +2.9 +10.5 -7.1
  Feb 01, 2025 229   @ Idaho St. L 71-87 34%     8 - 13 5 - 5 -17.1 +6.9 -26.2
  Feb 06, 2025 201   Portland St. L 69-76 48%     8 - 14 5 - 6 -11.7 -5.8 -5.7
  Feb 08, 2025 332   Sacramento St. W 78-76 78%     9 - 14 6 - 6 -11.3 -2.4 -9.0
  Feb 15, 2025 265   @ Eastern Washington L 73-75 41%     9 - 15 6 - 7 -4.9 +5.0 -10.1
  Feb 20, 2025 264   @ Northern Arizona W 83-78 41%     10 - 15 7 - 7 +2.1 +11.8 -9.5
  Feb 22, 2025 151   @ Northern Colorado L 75-83 20%    
  Feb 27, 2025 229   Idaho St. W 74-73 56%    
  Mar 01, 2025 297   Weber St. W 76-71 69%    
  Mar 03, 2025 188   @ Montana St. L 70-76 27%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 1.0 6.3 2.1 9.5 3rd
4th 0.2 11.8 10.4 0.6 22.9 4th
5th 3.8 19.5 0.6 23.9 5th
6th 1.6 20.2 6.5 28.2 6th
7th 5.7 7.8 0.1 13.5 7th
8th 2.0 0.1 2.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 9.2 32.1 38.8 17.3 2.7 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 2.7% 8.3% 8.3% 15.2 0.2 0.0 2.4
10-8 17.3% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 0.1 1.4 15.8
9-9 38.8% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 2.1 36.7
8-10 32.1% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.9 31.2
7-11 9.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 9.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 15.9 0.2 4.6 95.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 15.2 81.8 18.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%
Lose Out 5.0%