IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Idaho
Big Sky
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.3	#236
Expected Predictive Rating	-4.7	#248

Pace	64.9	#272
Improvement	+4.1	#32

Offense
Total Offense	+0.6	#163

First Shot	-0.2	#183
After Offensive Rebound	+0.8	#134

Layup/Dunks	-0.8	#213
2 Pt Jumpshots	-1.5	#266
3 Pt Jumpshots	+4.5	#54
Freethrows	-2.3	#312

Improvement	+0.5	#144

Defense
Total Defense	-4.9	#322

First Shot	-5.0	#328
After Offensive Rebounds	+0.1	#172

Layups/Dunks	-0.4	#181
2 Pt Jumpshots	-2.6	#342
3 Pt Jumpshots	-0.9	#238
Freethrows	-1.1	#268

Improvement	+3.5	#13

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	7.5%	9.1%	6.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.6	15.5	15.7

.500 or above	22.2%	33.6%	13.8%
.500 or above in Conference	63.0%	78.3%	51.8%
Conference Champion	7.2%	11.8%	3.9%
Last Place in Conference	4.3%	1.4%	6.5%

First Four	3.4%	3.1%	3.6%
First Round	6.0%	7.7%	4.8%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Away) - 42.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	3 - 6	3 - 10
Quad 4	10 - 8	13 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2024	233	UC Davis	L	75-79	60%	0 - 1			-11.0	+1.2	-12.1
Nov 11, 2024	78	@ Washington St.	L	67-90	10%	0 - 2			-13.0	-4.2	-7.7
Nov 16, 2024	44	@ BYU	L	71-95	5%	0 - 3			-9.5	+2.0	-10.9
Nov 23, 2024	226	Southern Utah	L	67-82	48%	0 - 4			-18.9	+6.4	-28.5
Nov 24, 2024	296	@ San Diego	L	61-68	50%	0 - 5			-11.3	-10.9	-0.4
Nov 30, 2024	190	UC Riverside	W	80-68	50%	1 - 5			+7.6	+13.8	-4.9
Dec 04, 2024	221	@ UMKC	W	82-77	35%	2 - 5			+4.7	+12.3	-7.5
Dec 07, 2024	86	@ Oregon St.	L	62-78	10%	2 - 6			-6.6	+0.2	-8.6
Dec 15, 2024	67	UC San Diego	L	56-80	19%	2 - 7			-18.9	-12.1	-7.8
Dec 18, 2024	233	@ UC Davis	L	66-74	37%	2 - 8			-9.0	-2.7	-6.1
Dec 21, 2024	290	@ Pacific	W	95-72	49%	3 - 8			+19.0	+24.9	-4.5
Jan 02, 2025	186	Montana St.	W	69-64	50%	4 - 8	1 - 0		+0.8	-5.6	+6.4
Jan 04, 2025	187	Montana	L	71-73	50%	4 - 9	1 - 1		-6.2	-4.1	-2.2
Jan 09, 2025	338	@ Sacramento St.	W	80-67	63%	5 - 9	2 - 1		+5.2	+16.5	-9.6
Jan 11, 2025	254	@ Portland St.	L	72-74	42%
Jan 18, 2025	259	Eastern Washington	W	77-73	65%
Jan 20, 2025	187	@ Montana	L	72-78	28%
Jan 23, 2025	174	Northern Colorado	L	78-79	47%
Jan 25, 2025	262	Northern Arizona	W	77-73	66%
Jan 30, 2025	227	@ Weber St.	L	71-74	38%
Feb 01, 2025	232	@ Idaho St.	L	67-70	38%
Feb 06, 2025	254	Portland St.	W	75-71	64%
Feb 08, 2025	338	Sacramento St.	W	72-62	82%
Feb 15, 2025	259	@ Eastern Washington	L	74-76	44%
Feb 20, 2025	262	@ Northern Arizona	L	74-76	44%
Feb 22, 2025	174	@ Northern Colorado	L	75-82	27%
Feb 27, 2025	232	Idaho St.	W	70-67	60%
Mar 01, 2025	227	Weber St.	W	74-71	59%
Mar 03, 2025	186	@ Montana St.	L	69-75	29%
Projected Record						12 - 17	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.4	1.7	2.2	1.8	0.8	0.3	0.0			7.2	1st
2nd										0.0	0.6	3.5	4.4	2.6	0.6	0.1					11.7	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.5	4.9	6.3	2.8	0.5	0.0						15.1	3rd
4th									0.4	4.4	7.1	2.5	0.2	0.0							14.7	4th
5th								0.2	2.9	7.5	2.8	0.1									13.5	5th
6th							0.1	1.6	6.7	3.7	0.2										12.2	6th
7th						0.0	1.0	4.5	4.1	0.4											10.0	7th
8th					0.1	0.5	3.0	3.5	0.9	0.0											7.9	8th
9th				0.0	0.6	2.3	2.5	0.7	0.0												6.1	9th
10th			0.0	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.2	0.0													1.5	10th

Total			0.0	0.3	1.0	3.5	6.8	10.4	15.1	16.6	15.6	12.9	9.1	5.3	2.4	0.8	0.3	0.0				Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
16-2	100.0%	0.3		0.3	0.0
15-3	93.3%	0.8		0.7	0.1	0.0
14-4	75.2%	1.8		1.2	0.5	0.0
13-5	42.6%	2.2		1.1	1.0	0.2	0.0
12-6	18.8%	1.7		0.4	0.7	0.5	0.1	0.0
11-7	3.1%	0.4		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	7.2%	7.2		3.7	2.3	0.9	0.3	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1	0.0%																							0.0
16-2	0.3%		23.5%	23.5%		14.0														0.0	0.0	0.0		0.2
15-3	0.8%		32.7%	32.7%		14.4														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.6
14-4	2.4%		25.3%	25.3%		14.6														0.0	0.2	0.3	0.1	1.8
13-5	5.3%		15.8%	15.8%		15.1															0.1	0.5	0.2	4.4
12-6	9.1%		12.0%	12.0%		15.5															0.0	0.5	0.6	8.0
11-7	12.9%		10.6%	10.6%		15.7																0.5	0.9	11.5
10-8	15.6%		7.8%	7.8%		16.0																0.0	1.2	14.4
9-9	16.6%		6.3%	6.3%		16.0																	1.1	15.5
8-10	15.1%		3.8%	3.8%		16.0																	0.6	14.5
7-11	10.4%		2.7%	2.7%		16.0																	0.3	10.1
6-12	6.8%		1.9%	1.9%		16.0																	0.1	6.6
5-13	3.5%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	3.5
4-14	1.0%																							1.0
3-15	0.3%																							0.3
2-16	0.0%																							0.0
1-17
0-18

Total	100%		7.5%	7.5%	0.0%	15.6														0.1	0.5	1.9	5.0	92.5		0.0%