Idaho
Big Sky
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.6#288
Expected Predictive Rating-10.0#318
Pace63.3#321
Improvement+1.4#91

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#204
First Shot-2.8#256
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#97
Layup/Dunks+0.4#169
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#311
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#113
Freethrows-2.9#319
Improvement+1.3#85

Defense
Total Defense-5.4#337
First Shot-7.9#359
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#39
Layups/Dunks-0.4#184
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#344
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#295
Freethrows-0.7#241
Improvement+0.1#166
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 3.7% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.7
.500 or above 7.7% 12.9% 4.5%
.500 or above in Conference 29.8% 35.1% 26.5%
Conference Champion 2.3% 3.3% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 23.0% 18.5% 25.7%
First Four1.8% 1.9% 1.7%
First Round2.2% 2.9% 1.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UMKC (Away) - 38.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 82 - 12
Quad 48 - 910 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 216   UC Davis L 75-79 46%     0 - 1 -9.5 -0.2 -9.1
  Nov 11, 2024 75   @ Washington St. L 67-90 7%     0 - 2 -12.6 -3.1 -8.3
  Nov 16, 2024 38   @ BYU L 71-95 3%     0 - 3 -9.2 +2.3 -11.0
  Nov 23, 2024 201   Southern Utah L 67-82 32%     0 - 4 -16.7 +6.5 -26.4
  Nov 24, 2024 300   @ San Diego L 61-68 41%     0 - 5 -11.3 -10.4 -0.8
  Nov 30, 2024 200   UC Riverside W 80-68 43%     1 - 5 +7.3 +13.1 -4.5
  Dec 04, 2024 277   @ UMKC L 66-69 38%    
  Dec 07, 2024 74   @ Oregon St. L 60-77 5%    
  Dec 15, 2024 107   UC San Diego L 65-72 24%    
  Dec 18, 2024 216   @ UC Davis L 68-75 26%    
  Dec 21, 2024 276   @ Pacific L 69-72 38%    
  Jan 02, 2025 138   Montana St. L 68-73 31%    
  Jan 04, 2025 206   Montana L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 09, 2025 307   @ Sacramento St. L 65-67 42%    
  Jan 11, 2025 258   @ Portland St. L 72-76 35%    
  Jan 18, 2025 239   Eastern Washington W 76-75 52%    
  Jan 20, 2025 206   @ Montana L 68-76 25%    
  Jan 23, 2025 153   Northern Colorado L 72-76 37%    
  Jan 25, 2025 294   Northern Arizona W 72-69 62%    
  Jan 30, 2025 199   @ Weber St. L 65-73 24%    
  Feb 01, 2025 230   @ Idaho St. L 63-69 29%    
  Feb 06, 2025 258   Portland St. W 75-73 56%    
  Feb 08, 2025 307   Sacramento St. W 68-64 63%    
  Feb 15, 2025 239   @ Eastern Washington L 73-78 32%    
  Feb 20, 2025 294   @ Northern Arizona L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 22, 2025 153   @ Northern Colorado L 69-79 19%    
  Feb 27, 2025 230   Idaho St. L 65-66 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 199   Weber St. L 68-70 43%    
  Mar 03, 2025 138   @ Montana St. L 65-76 16%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.7 2.5 1.1 0.1 5.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 3.6 1.4 0.2 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.6 2.6 0.3 0.0 11.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.8 6.3 3.2 0.4 13.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 3.6 6.1 3.5 0.4 0.0 14.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.2 5.8 3.4 0.6 0.0 15.6 9th
10th 0.3 1.1 3.2 4.5 4.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 15.4 10th
Total 0.3 1.1 3.4 6.0 8.9 11.8 12.9 13.7 12.2 10.6 7.5 5.4 3.3 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 85.3% 0.3    0.2 0.0
14-4 75.1% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 41.2% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 14.4% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
11-7 2.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.3% 2.3 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 26.2% 26.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.3% 27.3% 27.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.8% 24.6% 24.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
13-5 1.7% 13.2% 13.2% 15.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.5
12-6 3.3% 9.3% 9.3% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.0
11-7 5.4% 7.1% 7.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 5.0
10-8 7.5% 5.1% 5.1% 15.9 0.0 0.4 7.1
9-9 10.6% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4 10.2
8-10 12.2% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4 11.8
7-11 13.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 13.4
6-12 12.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.8
5-13 11.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 11.7
4-14 8.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.9
3-15 6.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.0
2-16 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.4
1-17 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 2.2 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%