UCLA
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.0#31
Expected Predictive Rating+12.2#42
Pace64.7#279
Improvement-3.1#321

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#68
First Shot+2.7#102
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#95
Layup/Dunks-0.3#198
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#39
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#197
Freethrows+0.7#132
Improvement+0.1#167

Defense
Total Defense+8.7#12
First Shot+3.0#89
After Offensive Rebounds+5.8#1
Layups/Dunks+3.4#65
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#191
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#266
Freethrows+1.2#96
Improvement-3.3#336
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.6% 5.7% 1.5%
Top 6 Seed 19.5% 27.4% 11.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 77.5% 86.4% 68.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 76.9% 85.9% 67.7%
Average Seed 7.8 7.4 8.3
.500 or above 96.3% 99.0% 93.4%
.500 or above in Conference 61.6% 74.3% 48.3%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.1% 1.1%
First Four7.8% 5.7% 10.0%
First Round73.7% 83.5% 63.5%
Second Round41.5% 48.6% 34.2%
Sweet Sixteen13.5% 16.9% 9.9%
Elite Eight4.9% 6.2% 3.6%
Final Four1.5% 1.7% 1.2%
Championship Game0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin (Home) - 50.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 56 - 9
Quad 24 - 311 - 13
Quad 33 - 013 - 13
Quad 47 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 294   Rider W 85-50 97%     1 - 0 +24.7 +14.6 +13.1
  Nov 08, 2024 51   New Mexico L 64-72 59%     1 - 1 +2.7 -6.5 +9.8
  Nov 11, 2024 282   Boston University W 71-40 97%     2 - 1 +21.3 -7.6 +27.8
  Nov 15, 2024 298   Lehigh W 85-45 97%     3 - 1 +29.6 +14.0 +18.5
  Nov 20, 2024 215   Idaho St. W 84-70 95%     4 - 1 +8.3 +18.7 -8.8
  Nov 22, 2024 310   Cal St. Fullerton W 80-47 98%     5 - 1 +21.8 +7.5 +16.3
  Nov 26, 2024 240   Southern Utah W 88-43 96%     6 - 1 +37.9 +10.9 +26.3
  Dec 03, 2024 94   Washington W 69-58 82%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +14.3 +4.9 +10.3
  Dec 08, 2024 28   @ Oregon W 73-71 38%     8 - 1 2 - 0 +18.1 +11.4 +6.8
  Dec 14, 2024 13   Arizona W 57-54 35%     9 - 1 +20.0 -2.9 +23.1
  Dec 17, 2024 334   Prairie View W 111-75 99%     10 - 1 +21.9 +22.2 -3.0
  Dec 21, 2024 26   North Carolina L 74-76 47%     10 - 2 +11.8 +6.2 +5.7
  Dec 28, 2024 14   Gonzaga W 65-62 36%     11 - 2 +19.7 +1.1 +18.8
  Jan 04, 2025 53   @ Nebraska L 58-66 49%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +5.2 -8.5 +13.8
  Jan 07, 2025 11   Michigan L 75-94 44%     11 - 4 2 - 2 -4.5 +5.6 -9.5
  Jan 10, 2025 25   @ Maryland L 61-79 33%     11 - 5 2 - 3 -0.5 +0.0 -1.4
  Jan 13, 2025 67   @ Rutgers L 68-75 58%     11 - 6 2 - 4 +4.0 +4.9 -1.4
  Jan 17, 2025 52   Iowa W 94-70 69%     12 - 6 3 - 4 +31.9 +23.3 +9.4
  Jan 21, 2025 18   Wisconsin L 70-71 51%    
  Jan 24, 2025 94   @ Washington W 70-66 64%    
  Jan 27, 2025 61   @ USC W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 30, 2025 28   Oregon W 70-68 59%    
  Feb 04, 2025 12   Michigan St. L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 08, 2025 48   Penn St. W 75-70 69%    
  Feb 11, 2025 9   @ Illinois L 69-77 21%    
  Feb 14, 2025 56   @ Indiana W 69-68 50%    
  Feb 18, 2025 98   Minnesota W 69-58 84%    
  Feb 23, 2025 36   Ohio St. W 70-67 63%    
  Feb 28, 2025 10   @ Purdue L 64-71 23%    
  Mar 03, 2025 55   @ Northwestern W 65-64 49%    
  Mar 08, 2025 61   USC W 72-65 74%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 1.3 0.1 3.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 3.0 0.6 0.0 5.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 4.8 2.3 0.1 8.6 5th
6th 0.6 5.3 4.7 0.4 10.9 6th
7th 0.1 3.2 7.1 1.6 12.0 7th
8th 1.2 7.4 3.9 0.2 12.6 8th
9th 0.2 4.3 6.1 0.6 11.1 9th
10th 1.2 6.4 1.9 0.0 9.4 10th
11th 0.1 3.1 3.8 0.2 7.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 4.0 1.3 0.0 6.0 12th
13th 0.1 1.7 2.4 0.2 4.4 13th
14th 0.4 2.0 0.7 0.0 3.1 14th
15th 0.1 1.2 1.1 0.1 2.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.5 16th
17th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.8 5.9 11.5 17.3 19.4 18.3 13.0 7.3 2.8 0.7 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 87.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-5 16.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.7% 100.0% 16.4% 83.6% 3.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 2.8% 100.0% 11.0% 89.0% 4.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 7.3% 100.0% 8.4% 91.6% 5.7 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.4 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 13.0% 99.4% 4.6% 94.8% 6.7 0.1 0.4 1.9 3.3 3.9 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.1 99.4%
11-9 18.3% 97.6% 2.8% 94.8% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.6 5.5 5.4 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.4 97.6%
10-10 19.4% 92.6% 1.4% 91.2% 8.3 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.1 5.9 5.0 2.3 0.4 1.4 92.5%
9-11 17.3% 74.3% 0.5% 73.8% 9.7 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.8 4.2 3.7 0.1 4.5 74.1%
8-12 11.5% 40.5% 0.6% 39.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.9 0.3 6.9 40.1%
7-13 5.9% 6.5% 6.5% 11.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 5.5 6.5%
6-14 2.8% 2.8
5-15 0.8% 0.8
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 77.5% 2.6% 74.9% 7.8 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 5.9 10.0 14.6 15.8 11.6 8.2 7.3 0.5 22.5 76.9%