UCLA
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.3#14
Expected Predictive Rating+18.4#13
Pace65.0#279
Improvement+1.5#83

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#64
First Shot+2.4#102
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#71
Layup/Dunks+1.3#136
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#36
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#246
Freethrows+0.5#147
Improvement+1.3#85

Defense
Total Defense+10.9#4
First Shot+4.7#46
After Offensive Rebounds+6.1#1
Layups/Dunks+2.8#79
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#157
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#195
Freethrows+1.7#70
Improvement+0.3#163
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.9% 1.3% 0.4%
#1 Seed 6.5% 8.8% 3.8%
Top 2 Seed 19.2% 24.9% 12.4%
Top 4 Seed 50.8% 59.8% 40.2%
Top 6 Seed 75.0% 82.5% 66.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.7% 97.8% 93.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 95.0% 97.4% 92.4%
Average Seed 4.6 4.2 5.2
.500 or above 99.3% 99.8% 98.7%
.500 or above in Conference 93.4% 95.0% 91.5%
Conference Champion 26.9% 30.5% 22.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four1.7% 0.9% 2.6%
First Round95.0% 97.4% 92.1%
Second Round75.4% 80.7% 69.1%
Sweet Sixteen40.8% 45.9% 34.9%
Elite Eight18.8% 21.9% 15.2%
Final Four8.2% 9.8% 6.3%
Championship Game3.4% 4.2% 2.4%
National Champion1.4% 1.8% 1.0%

Next Game: North Carolina (Neutral) - 54.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 39 - 7
Quad 25 - 214 - 9
Quad 32 - 017 - 9
Quad 47 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 300   Rider W 85-50 98%     1 - 0 +24.6 +14.2 +13.5
  Nov 08, 2024 70   New Mexico L 64-72 75%     1 - 1 +0.2 -10.0 +10.8
  Nov 11, 2024 256   Boston University W 71-40 98%     2 - 1 +22.8 -7.7 +29.4
  Nov 15, 2024 244   Lehigh W 85-45 97%     3 - 1 +32.3 +12.1 +23.1
  Nov 20, 2024 251   Idaho St. W 84-70 97%     4 - 1 +6.0 +19.6 -11.8
  Nov 22, 2024 275   Cal St. Fullerton W 80-47 98%     5 - 1 +23.8 +9.1 +16.6
  Nov 26, 2024 218   Southern Utah W 88-43 96%     6 - 1 +39.4 +10.6 +28.1
  Dec 03, 2024 82   Washington W 69-58 86%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +14.8 +5.2 +10.5
  Dec 08, 2024 23   @ Oregon W 73-71 43%     8 - 1 2 - 0 +19.0 +11.4 +7.7
  Dec 14, 2024 17   Arizona W 57-54 50%     9 - 1 +18.2 -3.2 +21.7
  Dec 17, 2024 337   Prairie View W 111-75 99%     10 - 1 +21.8 +19.4 -0.2
  Dec 21, 2024 22   North Carolina W 74-73 54%    
  Dec 28, 2024 4   Gonzaga L 69-74 33%    
  Jan 04, 2025 53   @ Nebraska W 69-67 58%    
  Jan 07, 2025 21   Michigan W 71-67 65%    
  Jan 10, 2025 19   @ Maryland L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 13, 2025 64   @ Rutgers W 71-67 63%    
  Jan 17, 2025 42   Iowa W 77-70 76%    
  Jan 21, 2025 36   Wisconsin W 72-66 71%    
  Jan 24, 2025 82   @ Washington W 70-64 69%    
  Jan 27, 2025 76   @ USC W 70-65 67%    
  Jan 30, 2025 23   Oregon W 70-66 66%    
  Feb 04, 2025 15   Michigan St. W 68-65 61%    
  Feb 08, 2025 30   Penn St. W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 11, 2025 16   @ Illinois L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 14, 2025 45   @ Indiana W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 18, 2025 114   Minnesota W 69-54 92%    
  Feb 23, 2025 38   Ohio St. W 71-64 72%    
  Feb 28, 2025 20   @ Purdue L 67-69 43%    
  Mar 03, 2025 61   @ Northwestern W 64-61 61%    
  Mar 08, 2025 76   USC W 73-62 83%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.8 5.7 8.0 6.4 3.4 1.2 0.2 26.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 5.5 6.3 2.8 0.6 0.1 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.4 5.2 1.9 0.2 0.0 12.4 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 4.8 2.0 0.2 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.0 2.8 0.3 7.7 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 3.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.1 1.4 0.1 0.0 5.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.6 2.3 0.3 4.1 8th
9th 0.4 2.0 0.8 0.0 3.1 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.1 2.5 10th
11th 0.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.6 5.9 9.2 12.0 14.4 14.8 14.1 11.0 7.0 3.5 1.2 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
18-2 98.0% 3.4    3.2 0.2 0.0
17-3 91.7% 6.4    5.3 1.1 0.1
16-4 73.1% 8.0    4.7 2.8 0.5 0.0
15-5 40.1% 5.7    1.9 2.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 12.0% 1.8    0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 26.9% 26.9 16.7 7.1 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 41.8% 58.2% 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.2% 100.0% 36.9% 63.1% 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 100.0%
18-2 3.5% 100.0% 29.6% 70.4% 1.7 1.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 7.0% 100.0% 27.1% 72.9% 2.1 2.0 2.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-4 11.0% 100.0% 23.0% 77.0% 2.6 1.3 3.9 3.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-5 14.1% 100.0% 18.3% 81.7% 3.4 0.5 2.6 5.0 4.0 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 14.8% 100.0% 15.1% 84.9% 4.2 0.1 1.0 3.4 4.6 3.4 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 14.4% 99.9% 10.9% 88.9% 5.1 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.1 4.2 3.1 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 12.0% 99.5% 6.6% 92.9% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.5 3.2 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.5%
11-9 9.2% 98.1% 3.8% 94.3% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.8 2.3 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 98.0%
10-10 5.9% 91.0% 2.9% 88.1% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.5 90.7%
9-11 3.6% 68.7% 1.0% 67.7% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.1 68.4%
8-12 1.8% 34.0% 1.0% 33.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.2 33.3%
7-13 0.8% 5.9% 0.5% 5.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 5.5%
6-14 0.3% 0.3
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 95.7% 13.8% 82.0% 4.6 6.5 12.7 16.4 15.2 13.4 10.8 8.0 5.6 3.3 2.2 1.6 0.1 4.3 95.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 95.2 4.8