UCLA
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.1#28
Expected Predictive Rating+3.5#127
Pace63.8#324
Improvement+0.4#132

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#68
First Shot-1.0#212
After Offensive Rebound+4.9#12
Layup/Dunks-1.8#241
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#39
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.2#333
Freethrows+3.8#31
Improvement-0.2#194

Defense
Total Defense+9.1#6
First Shot+3.2#91
After Offensive Rebounds+5.9#3
Layups/Dunks+5.4#42
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#335
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#162
Freethrows+0.6#144
Improvement+0.5#107
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.9% 2.0% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 5.1% 5.3% 1.2%
Top 4 Seed 16.0% 16.4% 5.1%
Top 6 Seed 30.7% 31.2% 13.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65.4% 66.2% 41.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 62.4% 63.1% 39.2%
Average Seed 6.6 6.6 7.6
.500 or above 86.3% 87.0% 64.5%
.500 or above in Conference 73.7% 74.2% 57.1%
Conference Champion 11.7% 11.9% 6.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 1.8% 5.5%
First Four4.0% 4.0% 5.5%
First Round63.5% 64.3% 39.1%
Second Round42.6% 43.2% 23.2%
Sweet Sixteen19.4% 19.8% 8.8%
Elite Eight8.8% 9.0% 3.2%
Final Four3.8% 3.9% 1.1%
Championship Game1.6% 1.6% 0.7%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 0.1%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Home) - 96.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 9
Quad 25 - 311 - 12
Quad 33 - 014 - 12
Quad 46 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 240   Rider W 85-50 96%     1 - 0 +28.1 +16.5 +14.5
  Nov 08, 2024 63   New Mexico L 64-72 67%     1 - 1 +0.6 -9.0 +10.2
  Nov 11, 2024 284   Boston University W 71-40 97%     2 - 1 +21.7 -8.3 +28.9
  Nov 15, 2024 283   Lehigh W 85-45 97%     3 - 1 +30.7 +13.4 +20.2
  Nov 20, 2024 236   Idaho St. W 71-51 97%    
  Nov 22, 2024 270   Cal St. Fullerton W 75-53 98%    
  Nov 26, 2024 205   Southern Utah W 78-60 96%    
  Dec 03, 2024 84   Washington W 73-64 80%    
  Dec 08, 2024 40   @ Oregon L 66-67 45%    
  Dec 13, 2024 13   Arizona L 71-73 41%    
  Dec 17, 2024 348   Prairie View W 84-55 99%    
  Dec 21, 2024 7   North Carolina L 71-75 34%    
  Dec 28, 2024 1   Gonzaga L 68-77 21%    
  Jan 04, 2025 65   @ Nebraska W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 07, 2025 24   Michigan W 69-67 59%    
  Jan 10, 2025 30   @ Maryland L 64-67 40%    
  Jan 13, 2025 42   @ Rutgers L 65-66 46%    
  Jan 17, 2025 41   Iowa W 75-70 66%    
  Jan 21, 2025 38   Wisconsin W 71-66 66%    
  Jan 24, 2025 84   @ Washington W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 27, 2025 78   @ USC W 70-67 59%    
  Jan 30, 2025 40   Oregon W 69-64 66%    
  Feb 04, 2025 35   Michigan St. W 68-64 65%    
  Feb 08, 2025 32   Penn St. W 73-70 62%    
  Feb 11, 2025 26   @ Illinois L 68-71 38%    
  Feb 14, 2025 22   @ Indiana L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 18, 2025 90   Minnesota W 66-56 81%    
  Feb 23, 2025 20   Ohio St. W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 28, 2025 19   @ Purdue L 66-70 37%    
  Mar 03, 2025 74   @ Northwestern W 64-62 58%    
  Mar 08, 2025 78   USC W 73-64 77%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 3.4 2.6 1.6 0.6 0.1 11.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 3.1 3.4 1.9 0.5 0.0 9.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 9.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 4.1 1.8 0.2 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.1 2.5 0.3 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.2 2.7 3.5 0.8 0.0 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 3.9 1.6 0.1 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.9 2.6 0.3 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 3.3 0.9 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.6 2.1 0.1 5.1 10th
11th 0.0 1.2 2.7 0.5 0.0 4.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.2 1.4 0.1 4.2 12th
13th 0.1 1.3 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.8 0.0 3.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.1 2.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.5 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.0 4.7 6.5 8.8 10.2 11.3 12.1 11.5 10.1 7.7 5.5 3.1 1.7 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 97.6% 1.6    1.5 0.1 0.0
17-3 84.9% 2.6    2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
16-4 62.0% 3.4    1.9 1.2 0.3 0.0
15-5 32.3% 2.5    0.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.2% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.7% 11.7 6.9 3.3 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 41.0% 59.0% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 39.4% 60.6% 1.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
18-2 1.7% 100.0% 34.6% 65.4% 1.9 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.1% 100.0% 27.0% 73.0% 2.7 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.5% 100.0% 23.5% 76.5% 3.5 0.3 0.9 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 7.7% 99.8% 17.9% 81.9% 4.7 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
14-6 10.1% 98.9% 13.8% 85.1% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.7%
13-7 11.5% 95.9% 10.2% 85.7% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.2 2.6 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.5 95.4%
12-8 12.1% 88.3% 5.4% 82.9% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 2.1 2.7 2.2 1.4 0.5 0.0 1.4 87.7%
11-9 11.3% 72.5% 2.8% 69.6% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.2 0.1 3.1 71.7%
10-10 10.2% 47.6% 1.9% 45.8% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.4 0.2 5.3 46.6%
9-11 8.8% 20.5% 0.8% 19.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.0 19.8%
8-12 6.5% 5.2% 0.2% 5.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 6.2 5.0%
7-13 4.7% 0.5% 0.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7 0.5%
6-14 3.0% 3.0
5-15 1.8% 1.8
4-16 0.9% 0.9
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 65.4% 8.2% 57.3% 6.6 1.9 3.2 5.2 5.7 6.9 7.8 8.5 8.7 7.2 5.6 4.2 0.4 0.0 34.6 62.4%