UCLA
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.7#27
Expected Predictive Rating+15.1#27
Pace63.2#310
Improvement+0.3#174

Offense
Total Offense+6.4#40
First Shot+4.5#67
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#69
Layup/Dunks+0.3#170
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#33
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#190
Freethrows+1.0#113
Improvement+3.4#39

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#18
First Shot+2.6#88
After Offensive Rebounds+5.7#2
Layups/Dunks+3.2#70
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#203
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#265
Freethrows+1.2#101
Improvement-3.1#326
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 10.8% 14.9% 3.4%
Top 6 Seed 54.6% 66.0% 33.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.4% 99.9% 98.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.4% 99.9% 98.5%
Average Seed 6.3 5.9 7.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round99.4% 99.9% 98.5%
Second Round66.6% 70.4% 59.5%
Sweet Sixteen25.8% 28.9% 20.2%
Elite Eight9.5% 10.5% 7.8%
Final Four3.3% 3.5% 3.1%
Championship Game1.2% 1.3% 0.9%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Next Game: Ohio St. (Home) - 64.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 38 - 7
Quad 26 - 214 - 10
Quad 32 - 115 - 11
Quad 47 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 313   Rider W 85-50 98%     1 - 0 +23.4 +13.7 +12.7
  Nov 08, 2024 38   New Mexico L 64-72 59%     1 - 1 +4.4 -5.8 +10.8
  Nov 11, 2024 300   Boston University W 71-40 98%     2 - 1 +20.6 -8.4 +27.9
  Nov 15, 2024 279   Lehigh W 85-45 98%     3 - 1 +30.9 +15.5 +18.3
  Nov 20, 2024 229   Idaho St. W 84-70 96%     4 - 1 +7.8 +17.5 -8.0
  Nov 22, 2024 342   Cal St. Fullerton W 80-47 99%     5 - 1 +18.4 +6.5 +13.9
  Nov 26, 2024 282   Southern Utah W 88-43 98%     6 - 1 +35.8 +10.4 +24.6
  Dec 03, 2024 90   Washington W 69-58 86%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +14.2 +4.1 +11.1
  Dec 08, 2024 39   @ Oregon W 73-71 50%     8 - 1 2 - 0 +16.7 +9.9 +6.9
  Dec 14, 2024 8   Arizona W 57-54 35%     9 - 1 +21.7 -0.6 +22.5
  Dec 17, 2024 356   Prairie View W 111-75 99%     10 - 1 +19.7 +21.9 -4.9
  Dec 21, 2024 40   North Carolina L 74-76 60%     10 - 2 +10.1 +4.0 +6.1
  Dec 28, 2024 11   Gonzaga W 65-62 36%     11 - 2 +21.4 +2.9 +18.6
  Jan 04, 2025 48   @ Nebraska L 58-66 55%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +5.6 -8.8 +14.5
  Jan 07, 2025 22   Michigan L 75-94 56%     11 - 4 2 - 2 -5.9 +6.3 -11.6
  Jan 10, 2025 13   @ Maryland L 61-79 29%     11 - 5 2 - 3 +2.5 +1.1 +0.6
  Jan 13, 2025 63   @ Rutgers L 68-75 64%     11 - 6 2 - 4 +3.9 +4.5 -1.1
  Jan 17, 2025 61   Iowa W 94-70 78%     12 - 6 3 - 4 +30.7 +23.8 +7.7
  Jan 21, 2025 7   Wisconsin W 85-83 44%     13 - 6 4 - 4 +18.2 +22.2 -3.8
  Jan 24, 2025 90   @ Washington W 65-60 73%     14 - 6 5 - 4 +13.3 +2.3 +11.4
  Jan 27, 2025 59   @ USC W 82-76 58%     15 - 6 6 - 4 +18.7 +20.7 -1.6
  Jan 30, 2025 39   Oregon W 78-52 69%     16 - 6 7 - 4 +35.6 +21.7 +18.1
  Feb 04, 2025 12   Michigan St. W 63-61 46%     17 - 6 8 - 4 +17.7 +4.6 +13.3
  Feb 08, 2025 62   Penn St. W 78-54 80%     18 - 6 9 - 4 +30.0 +14.0 +18.1
  Feb 11, 2025 18   @ Illinois L 78-83 35%     18 - 7 9 - 5 +13.7 +16.2 -2.7
  Feb 14, 2025 57   @ Indiana W 72-68 56%     19 - 7 10 - 5 +17.1 +12.5 +5.0
  Feb 18, 2025 76   Minnesota L 61-64 82%     19 - 8 10 - 6 +1.9 +1.3 +0.0
  Feb 23, 2025 33   Ohio St. W 71-67 65%    
  Feb 28, 2025 16   @ Purdue L 67-72 30%    
  Mar 03, 2025 58   @ Northwestern W 67-65 55%    
  Mar 08, 2025 59   USC W 74-67 76%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.1 5.2 3rd
4th 0.4 8.1 3.5 11.9 4th
5th 0.2 6.8 15.6 0.3 22.8 5th
6th 0.4 14.1 29.6 7.7 51.8 6th
7th 1.4 4.3 5.6 7th
8th 1.3 0.2 1.5 8th
9th 0.2 0.2 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 3.3 18.7 36.7 32.4 9.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 9.0% 100.0% 10.4% 89.6% 4.4 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.7 2.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 32.4% 100.0% 5.8% 94.2% 5.6 0.0 1.2 3.7 9.3 11.2 6.0 0.9 0.1 100.0%
12-8 36.7% 99.8% 4.6% 95.1% 6.6 0.2 1.1 4.7 10.8 12.8 6.1 0.9 0.0 0.1 99.8%
11-9 18.7% 98.9% 3.0% 95.9% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.6 5.3 6.4 3.0 0.4 0.0 0.2 98.9%
10-10 3.3% 91.5% 2.1% 89.3% 8.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.0 0.3 91.3%
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.4% 5.2% 94.3% 6.3 0.0 0.4 2.9 7.6 17.7 26.1 24.7 14.3 4.9 1.0 0.1 0.6 99.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 2.8 2.2 30.1 57.0 9.7 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2% 100.0% 3.9 2.6 27.4 51.3 17.9 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.5% 100.0% 4.4 0.4 17.2 36.0 32.8 12.8 0.8
Lose Out 1.6% 83.5% 9.3 15.2 34.2 32.3 1.9