Michigan
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.6#22
Expected Predictive Rating+17.3#13
Pace72.7#65
Improvement-4.0#326

Offense
Total Offense+8.2#25
First Shot+6.6#35
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#94
Layup/Dunks+7.9#4
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#353
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#102
Freethrows+0.1#168
Improvement-2.1#286

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#26
First Shot+7.3#20
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#165
Layups/Dunks+5.4#30
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#308
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#139
Freethrows+2.4#40
Improvement-1.9#285
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.8% 2.7% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 11.1% 15.9% 5.0%
Top 4 Seed 60.3% 73.4% 43.6%
Top 6 Seed 93.9% 98.0% 88.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Average Seed 4.2 3.7 4.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 36.3% 50.3% 18.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Second Round84.1% 88.0% 79.1%
Sweet Sixteen42.4% 46.5% 37.1%
Elite Eight15.9% 18.4% 12.6%
Final Four5.9% 7.0% 4.6%
Championship Game2.2% 2.6% 1.7%
National Champion0.7% 0.9% 0.5%

Next Game: Nebraska (Away) - 56.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 29 - 6
Quad 26 - 316 - 9
Quad 35 - 021 - 9
Quad 43 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 170   Cleveland St. W 101-53 95%     1 - 0 +45.0 +22.1 +19.8
  Nov 10, 2024 55   Wake Forest L 70-72 69%     1 - 1 +8.6 +6.4 +2.2
  Nov 15, 2024 64   TCU W 76-64 82%     2 - 1 +17.8 +6.5 +10.9
  Nov 18, 2024 171   Miami (OH) W 94-67 95%     3 - 1 +24.0 +15.1 +7.8
  Nov 21, 2024 273   Tarleton St. W 72-49 98%     4 - 1 +14.1 +5.1 +10.9
  Nov 25, 2024 128   Virginia Tech W 75-63 90%     5 - 1 +13.8 +2.8 +11.0
  Nov 27, 2024 42   Xavier W 78-53 64%     6 - 1 +37.0 +10.4 +26.2
  Dec 03, 2024 7   @ Wisconsin W 67-64 29%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +24.3 +4.2 +20.2
  Dec 07, 2024 61   Iowa W 85-83 80%     8 - 1 2 - 0 +8.7 +6.7 +1.8
  Dec 10, 2024 35   Arkansas L 87-89 61%     8 - 2 +10.8 +14.4 -3.4
  Dec 18, 2024 50   Oklahoma L 86-87 68%     8 - 3 +9.9 +17.8 -7.9
  Dec 22, 2024 153   Purdue Fort Wayne W 89-58 94%     9 - 3 +29.1 +13.1 +16.0
  Dec 29, 2024 135   Western Kentucky W 112-64 93%     10 - 3 +46.8 +21.9 +16.9
  Jan 04, 2025 59   @ USC W 85-74 61%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +23.7 +15.3 +8.1
  Jan 07, 2025 27   @ UCLA W 94-75 44%     12 - 3 4 - 0 +36.3 +28.1 +7.6
  Jan 12, 2025 90   Washington W 91-75 88%     13 - 3 5 - 0 +19.2 +16.5 +2.0
  Jan 16, 2025 76   @ Minnesota L 81-84 OT 71%     13 - 4 5 - 1 +6.9 +13.4 -6.5
  Jan 19, 2025 58   Northwestern W 80-76 OT 77%     14 - 4 6 - 1 +11.7 +4.7 +6.8
  Jan 24, 2025 16   @ Purdue L 64-91 34%     14 - 5 6 - 2 -7.0 -3.1 -3.4
  Jan 27, 2025 62   Penn St. W 76-72 82%     15 - 5 7 - 2 +10.0 +6.4 +3.7
  Feb 01, 2025 63   @ Rutgers W 66-63 68%     16 - 5 8 - 2 +13.9 -1.3 +15.3
  Feb 05, 2025 39   Oregon W 80-76 72%     17 - 5 9 - 2 +13.6 +6.2 +7.2
  Feb 08, 2025 57   @ Indiana W 70-67 60%     18 - 5 10 - 2 +16.1 +7.2 +9.0
  Feb 11, 2025 16   Purdue W 75-73 53%     19 - 5 11 - 2 +16.9 +8.3 +8.7
  Feb 16, 2025 33   @ Ohio St. W 86-83 48%     20 - 5 12 - 2 +19.2 +21.2 -1.9
  Feb 21, 2025 12   Michigan St. L 62-75 50%     20 - 6 12 - 3 +2.7 +1.6 +0.2
  Feb 24, 2025 48   @ Nebraska W 76-74 56%    
  Feb 27, 2025 63   Rutgers W 82-72 83%    
  Mar 02, 2025 18   Illinois W 83-81 60%    
  Mar 05, 2025 13   Maryland W 79-78 52%    
  Mar 09, 2025 12   @ Michigan St. L 72-77 30%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 11.2 19.5 5.5 36.3 1st
2nd 0.0 6.5 21.7 2.0 30.2 2nd
3rd 1.1 13.8 1.5 16.4 3rd
4th 0.1 4.3 5.9 10.3 4th
5th 0.9 4.6 0.8 6.4 5th
6th 0.4 0.1 0.5 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 1.4 10.2 27.1 34.4 21.4 5.5 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 5.5    5.5
16-4 90.9% 19.5    8.6 10.1 0.8
15-5 32.7% 11.2    0.5 3.2 5.2 2.1 0.2
14-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 36.3% 36.3 14.6 13.3 6.0 2.2 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 5.5% 100.0% 16.9% 83.1% 2.4 0.8 2.2 2.0 0.5 0.0 100.0%
16-4 21.4% 100.0% 14.6% 85.4% 3.1 0.7 4.8 9.1 5.4 1.3 0.1 100.0%
15-5 34.4% 100.0% 11.6% 88.4% 3.9 0.2 2.1 9.9 12.6 7.6 1.8 0.1 100.0%
14-6 27.1% 100.0% 9.0% 91.0% 5.0 0.0 0.2 2.4 6.3 9.8 6.5 1.7 0.2 100.0%
13-7 10.2% 99.9% 5.4% 94.5% 6.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 3.8 2.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 1.4% 97.9% 3.5% 94.3% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 97.8%
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 11.1% 88.9% 4.2 1.8 9.4 23.5 25.7 21.1 12.4 4.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 1.5 48.4 48.4 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9% 100.0% 2.1 18.8 49.4 30.6 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8% 100.0% 2.5 6.3 46.6 41.5 5.7
Lose Out 0.6% 94.5% 8.1 1.8 23.6 34.5 34.5