Miami (OH)
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#209
Expected Predictive Rating+0.5#160
Pace69.3#169
Improvement-2.0#303

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#234
First Shot-1.3#207
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#228
Layup/Dunks-2.3#271
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#59
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#100
Freethrows-3.8#351
Improvement-1.6#304

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#176
First Shot-1.2#208
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#99
Layups/Dunks+0.3#159
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#154
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#309
Freethrows+1.3#97
Improvement-0.5#216
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.0% 9.7% 6.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.6
.500 or above 80.1% 85.1% 64.2%
.500 or above in Conference 79.9% 82.1% 73.0%
Conference Champion 11.4% 12.5% 8.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 1.0% 1.8%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round8.9% 9.6% 6.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Home) - 76.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 43 - 8
Quad 414 - 517 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 173   @ Appalachian St. W 77-63 33%     1 - 0 +16.2 +5.9 +10.0
  Nov 09, 2024 154   Wright St. L 68-81 52%     1 - 1 -15.9 -10.5 -5.2
  Nov 12, 2024 359   Maryland Eastern Shore W 88-70 91%     2 - 1 +0.9 +16.0 -13.2
  Nov 18, 2024 21   @ Michigan L 67-94 5%     2 - 2 -9.8 -0.4 -8.3
  Nov 25, 2024 305   Siena W 70-58 70%     3 - 2 +4.2 -1.8 +6.6
  Nov 26, 2024 239   Mercer W 75-72 58%     4 - 2 -1.3 -4.2 +2.7
  Dec 02, 2024 271   Air Force W 73-60 74%     5 - 2 +4.2 +5.2 +0.6
  Dec 06, 2024 45   @ Indiana L 57-76 8%     5 - 3 -5.4 -7.5 +1.3
  Dec 18, 2024 184   @ Vermont L 67-75 34%     5 - 4 -6.2 -1.1 -5.2
  Dec 22, 2024 284   Sacred Heart W 77-70 76%    
  Jan 04, 2025 330   Buffalo W 79-68 84%    
  Jan 07, 2025 288   @ Ball St. W 72-70 56%    
  Jan 11, 2025 296   Western Michigan W 76-68 77%    
  Jan 14, 2025 346   @ Northern Illinois W 75-68 73%    
  Jan 18, 2025 113   @ Kent St. L 61-70 21%    
  Jan 21, 2025 267   Bowling Green W 77-71 72%    
  Jan 25, 2025 163   @ Akron L 73-78 33%    
  Jan 28, 2025 317   Eastern Michigan W 77-67 80%    
  Feb 01, 2025 149   Ohio W 76-75 51%    
  Feb 04, 2025 225   @ Central Michigan L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 11, 2025 211   Toledo W 79-76 61%    
  Feb 15, 2025 296   @ Western Michigan W 73-71 57%    
  Feb 18, 2025 317   @ Eastern Michigan W 74-70 62%    
  Feb 22, 2025 113   Kent St. L 64-67 41%    
  Feb 25, 2025 346   Northern Illinois W 78-65 87%    
  Mar 01, 2025 149   @ Ohio L 73-79 31%    
  Mar 04, 2025 330   @ Buffalo W 76-71 66%    
  Mar 07, 2025 288   Ball St. W 75-67 75%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.5 3.3 1.8 0.5 0.1 11.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.5 5.7 3.5 0.9 0.1 14.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.2 6.7 3.2 0.5 0.0 15.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.9 6.8 2.9 0.3 0.0 14.6 4th
5th 0.3 3.1 6.0 3.0 0.3 0.0 12.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.9 5.0 2.9 0.3 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.7 2.6 0.4 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.2 0.4 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.2 5.8 8.5 11.8 13.9 15.1 13.7 11.2 7.5 4.2 1.9 0.5 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 94.7% 1.8    1.6 0.2
15-3 78.4% 3.3    2.2 1.0 0.1
14-4 46.2% 3.5    1.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 17.4% 2.0    0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.4% 11.4 6.3 3.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 47.2% 47.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.5% 33.0% 33.0% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-2 1.9% 29.6% 29.6% 12.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.3
15-3 4.2% 25.5% 25.5% 13.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 3.1
14-4 7.5% 19.8% 19.8% 13.8 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.0
13-5 11.2% 13.9% 13.9% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.0 9.7
12-6 13.7% 10.7% 10.7% 14.6 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.1 12.3
11-7 15.1% 7.7% 7.7% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 13.9
10-8 13.9% 6.2% 6.2% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 13.1
9-9 11.8% 3.8% 3.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 11.3
8-10 8.5% 2.1% 2.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 8.3
7-11 5.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.7
6-12 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.2
5-13 1.6% 1.6
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.9 3.0 1.1 91.0 0.0%