Miami (OH)
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#171
Expected Predictive Rating+3.0#123
Pace71.1#98
Improvement-0.3#207

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#162
First Shot+0.9#141
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#215
Layup/Dunks-1.9#251
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#55
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#58
Freethrows-3.6#356
Improvement+0.5#156

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#200
First Shot-2.3#246
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#75
Layups/Dunks+1.0#132
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#234
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#311
Freethrows+0.6#139
Improvement-0.9#235
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.5% 16.7% 14.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 3.6% 4.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round16.5% 16.7% 14.5%
Second Round0.7% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Home) - 90.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 35 - 16 - 5
Quad 416 - 422 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 141   @ Appalachian St. W 77-63 34%     1 - 0 +17.7 +7.9 +9.5
  Nov 09, 2024 220   Wright St. L 68-81 70%     1 - 1 -18.8 -11.4 -7.1
  Nov 12, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 88-70 96%     2 - 1 -3.0 +15.5 -16.5
  Nov 18, 2024 22   @ Michigan L 67-94 5%     2 - 2 -8.8 +0.2 -7.9
  Nov 25, 2024 228   Siena W 70-58 62%     3 - 2 +8.4 -0.3 +9.3
  Nov 26, 2024 256   Mercer W 75-72 68%     4 - 2 -2.3 -3.5 +1.1
  Dec 02, 2024 294   Air Force W 73-60 81%     5 - 2 +3.1 +5.1 -0.3
  Dec 06, 2024 57   @ Indiana L 57-76 11%     5 - 3 -5.9 -6.7 +0.0
  Dec 18, 2024 230   @ Vermont L 67-75 52%     5 - 4 -9.1 -2.0 -7.1
  Dec 22, 2024 274   Sacred Heart W 94-76 79%     6 - 4 +9.1 +7.9 -0.2
  Jan 04, 2025 352   Buffalo W 93-79 91%     7 - 4 1 - 0 -1.7 +12.8 -14.7
  Jan 07, 2025 261   @ Ball St. W 80-72 59%     8 - 4 2 - 0 +5.1 +4.1 +1.1
  Jan 11, 2025 302   Western Michigan W 91-71 83%     9 - 4 3 - 0 +9.6 +9.3 -0.6
  Jan 14, 2025 341   @ Northern Illinois W 84-69 80%     10 - 4 4 - 0 +5.7 +7.4 -1.9
  Jan 18, 2025 137   @ Kent St. W 70-61 34%     11 - 4 5 - 0 +12.8 +6.3 +7.2
  Jan 21, 2025 301   Bowling Green W 84-76 82%     12 - 4 6 - 0 -2.4 +2.9 -5.6
  Jan 25, 2025 102   @ Akron L 75-102 24%     12 - 5 6 - 1 -20.1 -0.5 -17.7
  Jan 28, 2025 291   Eastern Michigan W 89-80 81%     13 - 5 7 - 1 -0.6 +8.5 -9.3
  Feb 01, 2025 172   Ohio W 73-69 60%     14 - 5 8 - 1 +0.9 -3.6 +4.4
  Feb 04, 2025 215   @ Central Michigan W 76-70 49%     15 - 5 9 - 1 +5.8 +6.8 -0.7
  Feb 08, 2025 118   Troy W 69-62 48%     16 - 5 +7.2 -3.2 +10.2
  Feb 11, 2025 221   Toledo W 92-80 70%     17 - 5 10 - 1 +6.2 +9.3 -3.4
  Feb 15, 2025 302   @ Western Michigan L 70-78 68%     17 - 6 10 - 2 -13.4 -9.2 -3.7
  Feb 18, 2025 291   @ Eastern Michigan L 66-76 65%     17 - 7 10 - 3 -14.6 -5.9 -9.3
  Feb 21, 2025 137   Kent St. W 96-92 OT 53%     18 - 7 11 - 3 +2.7 +13.7 -11.4
  Feb 25, 2025 341   Northern Illinois W 81-67 91%    
  Mar 01, 2025 172   @ Ohio L 78-80 40%    
  Mar 04, 2025 352   @ Buffalo W 82-72 81%    
  Mar 07, 2025 261   Ball St. W 80-72 77%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 2.8 3.6 1st
2nd 0.1 3.9 24.3 46.3 20.8 95.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.9 1.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.3 4.7 24.3 47.1 23.6 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 11.9% 2.8    0.5 2.3
14-4 1.6% 0.8    0.0 0.7
13-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 3.6% 3.6 0.6 3.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 23.6% 18.8% 18.8% 13.2 0.6 2.5 1.2 0.1 19.1
14-4 47.1% 17.5% 17.5% 14.0 0.1 1.8 4.7 1.6 38.8
13-5 24.3% 13.7% 13.7% 14.4 0.2 1.6 1.4 0.1 21.0
12-6 4.7% 11.0% 11.0% 14.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 4.2
11-7 0.3% 0.3
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.5% 16.5% 0.0% 13.9 0.7 4.6 7.7 3.4 0.1 83.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.4% 100.0% 13.2 13.5 57.3 27.3 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 7.4%
Lose Out 0.2%