Miami (OH)
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.7#112
Expected Predictive Rating+4.8#108
Pace74.6#58
Improvement+0.5#157

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#103
First Shot+5.4#51
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#320
Layup/Dunks+0.2#168
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#170
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#75
Freethrows+1.5#98
Improvement+0.8#111

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#143
First Shot-0.4#184
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#100
Layups/Dunks+1.5#123
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#282
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#198
Freethrows-0.1#189
Improvement-0.4#217
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.5% 15.3% 10.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.3 12.8
.500 or above 98.7% 99.6% 97.3%
.500 or above in Conference 87.4% 90.0% 83.1%
Conference Champion 9.0% 10.4% 6.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round13.5% 15.3% 10.4%
Second Round2.1% 2.5% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Away) - 62.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 36 - 47 - 6
Quad 413 - 120 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 212 Old Dominion W 87-72 83%     1 - 0 +8.7 +4.7 +3.0
  Sat, Nov 15 331 @Air Force W 76-61 84%     2 - 0 +7.8 +4.6 +3.9
  Thu, Nov 20 324 Mercyhurst W 76-71 93%     3 - 0 -7.5 +3.2 -10.4
  Sun, Nov 23 353 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 111-84 95%     4 - 0 +11.2 +16.4 -9.0
  Wed, Nov 26 281 UNC Greensboro W 82-71 83%     5 - 0 +4.5 +2.6 +1.6
  Sat, Dec 6 328 Maine W 93-61 93%     6 - 0 +19.1 +16.4 +2.3
  Wed, Dec 10 203 @UNC Asheville W 79-76 62%    
  Sat, Dec 13 269 @Eastern Kentucky W 84-78 72%    
  Tue, Dec 16 159 @Wright St. W 76-75 54%    
  Sat, Dec 20 310 @Ball St. W 78-69 80%    
  Tue, Dec 30 129 @Bowling Green L 76-77 45%    
  Sat, Jan 3 54 Akron L 84-87 37%    
  Tue, Jan 6 245 Western Michigan W 84-73 85%    
  Fri, Jan 9 163 @Toledo W 82-81 55%    
  Tue, Jan 13 309 Central Michigan W 84-69 91%    
  Sat, Jan 17 223 Buffalo W 83-73 83%    
  Tue, Jan 20 121 @Kent St. L 84-86 43%    
  Tue, Jan 27 167 Massachusetts W 83-76 75%    
  Sat, Jan 31 333 Northern Illinois W 88-71 94%    
  Tue, Feb 3 223 @Buffalo W 80-76 66%    
  Sat, Feb 14 190 Ohio W 86-77 78%    
  Tue, Feb 17 167 @Massachusetts W 80-79 55%    
  Sat, Feb 21 129 Bowling Green W 79-74 66%    
  Tue, Feb 24 205 @Eastern Michigan W 76-73 62%    
  Sat, Feb 28 245 @Western Michigan W 81-76 68%    
  Fri, Mar 6 190 @Ohio W 83-80 60%    
Projected Record 19 - 7 11 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 3.0 2.3 0.7 9.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.6 7.7 7.2 3.3 0.6 23.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.0 8.0 5.2 1.5 0.1 19.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.1 6.9 3.7 0.6 0.0 14.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 5.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.8 2.8 0.4 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.5 0.4 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.0 0.6 0.0 3.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.5 6.0 9.1 12.3 14.9 15.8 14.2 10.9 6.5 2.9 0.7 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.1
16-2 79.8% 2.3    1.6 0.7 0.0
15-3 47.0% 3.0    1.5 1.4 0.2
14-4 19.8% 2.2    0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 5.2% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.0% 9.0 4.5 3.5 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.7% 51.0% 48.1% 2.9% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 5.5%
16-2 2.9% 39.1% 38.5% 0.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.8 0.9%
15-3 6.5% 28.3% 28.2% 0.1% 11.9 0.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.6 0.1%
14-4 10.9% 22.1% 22.1% 12.2 0.2 1.6 0.6 0.1 8.5
13-5 14.2% 18.7% 18.7% 12.5 0.1 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 11.6
12-6 15.8% 12.7% 12.7% 12.8 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 13.8
11-7 14.9% 10.3% 10.3% 13.1 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 13.4
10-8 12.3% 7.9% 7.9% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 11.4
9-9 9.1% 5.0% 5.0% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.6
8-10 6.0% 1.9% 1.9% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.9
7-11 3.5% 0.5% 0.5% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5
6-12 1.9% 1.9
5-13 0.8% 0.8
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.5 5.6 4.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 86.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 8.6 5.0 18.3 6.7 10.0 21.7 16.7 20.0 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 11.5% 9.7 3.8 3.8 3.8