Siena
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.6#228
Expected Predictive Rating-4.7#242
Pace65.6#252
Improvement+4.1#36

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#241
First Shot-3.0#266
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#152
Layup/Dunks-5.0#340
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#146
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#177
Freethrows+1.4#92
Improvement+2.9#53

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#206
First Shot-0.8#204
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#215
Layups/Dunks-4.1#321
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#70
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#55
Freethrows-1.4#276
Improvement+1.2#126
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.7% 10.0% 7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 66.6% 71.4% 29.2%
.500 or above in Conference 89.8% 93.9% 57.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.9% 2.7% 4.0%
First Round8.2% 8.6% 4.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Canisius (Home) - 88.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 01 - 1
Quad 33 - 63 - 7
Quad 414 - 917 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 185   Brown W 72-71 OT 51%     1 - 0 -3.0 -4.2 +1.2
  Nov 08, 2024 161   @ Bryant W 90-88 OT 28%     2 - 0 +4.6 +4.3 +0.0
  Nov 12, 2024 247   American W 74-66 64%     3 - 0 +0.6 +10.3 -8.2
  Nov 16, 2024 267   @ Albany L 60-70 48%     3 - 1 -13.0 -11.3 -2.3
  Nov 20, 2024 42   @ Xavier L 55-80 6%     3 - 2 -10.5 -7.5 -4.2
  Nov 25, 2024 171   Miami (OH) L 58-70 38%     3 - 3 -12.5 -12.9 -0.2
  Nov 26, 2024 193   Jacksonville L 64-75 43%     3 - 4 -12.9 -6.2 -6.8
  Nov 30, 2024 232   Bucknell W 71-58 51%     4 - 4 +9.1 +7.0 +3.8
  Dec 06, 2024 319   @ Niagara L 68-69 62%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -7.7 +3.0 -10.8
  Dec 08, 2024 354   @ Canisius W 66-53 76%     5 - 5 1 - 1 +2.0 -2.6 +7.0
  Dec 17, 2024 106   St. Bonaventure L 48-65 31%     5 - 6 -15.5 -20.4 +4.0
  Dec 20, 2024 317   Holy Cross L 70-78 78%     5 - 7 -19.7 -1.3 -19.4
  Dec 30, 2024 164   @ Cornell W 83-77 28%     6 - 7 +8.4 +3.7 +4.4
  Jan 03, 2025 263   Manhattan W 103-95 2OT 67%     7 - 7 2 - 1 +0.0 +2.2 -3.8
  Jan 05, 2025 259   Iona L 73-74 66%     7 - 8 2 - 2 -8.9 -7.5 -1.3
  Jan 10, 2025 189   @ Quinnipiac L 53-72 33%     7 - 9 2 - 3 -18.1 -18.2 +0.3
  Jan 16, 2025 274   Sacred Heart W 93-75 69%     8 - 9 3 - 3 +9.1 +14.8 -5.6
  Jan 18, 2025 214   @ Merrimack L 58-64 37%     8 - 10 3 - 4 -6.1 -3.4 -3.4
  Jan 23, 2025 258   Mount St. Mary's W 82-68 66%     9 - 10 4 - 4 +6.1 +14.0 -6.7
  Jan 25, 2025 259   @ Iona L 68-72 47%     9 - 11 4 - 5 -6.8 -1.2 -5.7
  Jan 31, 2025 223   @ Marist L 67-72 39%     9 - 12 4 - 6 -5.7 +2.8 -9.0
  Feb 02, 2025 189   Quinnipiac W 84-75 52%     10 - 12 5 - 6 +4.8 +1.2 +2.5
  Feb 06, 2025 292   St. Peter's W 77-63 72%     11 - 12 6 - 6 +4.3 -0.3 +3.9
  Feb 08, 2025 313   @ Rider L 59-61 61%     11 - 13 6 - 7 -8.5 -8.9 +0.1
  Feb 14, 2025 223   Marist L 64-65 59%     11 - 14 6 - 8 -6.8 -2.8 -4.1
  Feb 16, 2025 274   @ Sacred Heart W 80-73 51%     12 - 14 7 - 8 +3.2 +8.9 -5.3
  Feb 21, 2025 319   Niagara W 94-60 78%     13 - 14 8 - 8 +22.2 +18.4 +5.2
  Feb 23, 2025 354   Canisius W 78-65 89%    
  Mar 02, 2025 258   @ Mount St. Mary's L 69-70 45%    
  Mar 06, 2025 328   Fairfield W 74-65 82%    
  Mar 08, 2025 263   @ Manhattan L 73-74 46%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.4 2.5 3rd
4th 0.0 5.5 11.2 16.7 4th
5th 1.1 16.4 2.6 20.0 5th
6th 0.1 8.1 14.3 0.1 22.6 6th
7th 2.6 18.4 3.1 24.1 7th
8th 0.6 6.3 6.4 0.1 13.4 8th
9th 0.3 0.3 0.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.9 9.3 34.0 39.4 16.3 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 16.3% 16.2% 16.2% 15.2 0.3 1.7 0.7 13.7
11-9 39.4% 9.5% 9.5% 15.8 0.9 2.9 35.7
10-10 34.0% 8.1% 8.1% 15.9 0.4 2.4 31.3
9-11 9.3% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.5 8.8
8-12 0.9% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.9
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 15.6 0.3 3.0 6.4 90.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.7% 100.0% 15.2 9.8 65.3 24.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.1%
Lose Out 0.4%